Ben Rosenblum
Analyst · KBW. Tommy, your line is now open. Please go ahead
Thank you, Rob and Dominic, and good morning. I’m excited to be joined in the call, and I’m looking forward to working with all of you. I am pleased to report that fourth quarter 2023 adjusted operating income was $338 million or $5.75 per share compared with $14 million or $0.22 per share in the fourth quarter of 2022. Before I go into detail on the quarterly results, I wanted to highlight a change affecting our two Bermuda insurance subsidiaries. In December 2023, new legislation was passed implementing a Bermuda corporate income tax, which had a significant effect on adjusted operating income. Bermuda corporate income taxes, which will be at a rate of 15% will be assessed beginning in 2025. The new law allows an economic transition adjustment or ETA, equal to the difference between the fair market value and the carrying value of assets and liabilities of each of the Bermuda insurance subsidiaries. The ETA resulted in the establishment of a deferred tax asset of $189 million that was reported as a benefit in the fourth quarter 2023 adjusted operating income. It is expected to be utilized to reduce tax payments over 10 years to 15 years beginning in 2025. In addition to the Bermuda income tax benefit, there are a few other noteworthy components of adjusted operating income in the fourth quarter of 2023. In the Insurance segment, every component of the investment portfolio contributed to fourth quarter 2023 adjusted operating income. Fair value gains from contingent value instruments or CVI’s, which were received in 2022 in connection with various resolutions reached with Puerto Rico were $32 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, while the comparable 2022 fourth quarter amount was a loss of $4 million. Also of note is that all of the new recovery bonds we received as part of those resolutions have now been sold or redeemed, reducing our exposure to Puerto Rico. Second, in the fourth quarter of 2023, equity and earnings of our alternative investments was a gain of $22 million, while the comparable 2022 amount was a loss of $5 million. And finally, fixed maturity securities and short-term investments generated net investment income of $97 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared with $80 million in the fourth quarter of last year. The increase was primarily attributable to higher short-term interest rates and higher average short-term balances as well as higher income from loss mitigation securities. Net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues were $86 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, down from $111 million in the fourth quarter of 2022 to $29 million in premium accelerations attributable to resolve Puerto Rico highway and transportation exposures in 2022. However, scheduled net earned premiums were slightly higher in 2023. Loss expense of $7 million and economic loss development of $17 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 were mainly attributable to the changes in discount rates. The difference between these loss metrics is the impact of deferred premium revenue associated with transactions with expected losses. In the Asset Management segment, reported after-tax adjusted operating income of $6 million. This is the first time we are reporting our share of earnings in Sound Point, which is on a one quarter lag and the first time Asset Management has generated income since establishing this segment in 2019. And finally, changes in New York tax regulations resulted in a benefit of $19 million, which is reflected in the corporate division adjusted operating income. The changes relate to the methodology for allocating income across jurisdictions and the benefit reflects the retroactive application of this new methodology to the previous year’s AssuredIM asset management fees. On a full-year basis, adjusted operating income was $648 million or $10.78 per share, the most noteworthy contributor to adjusted operating income in 2023 was the completion of the Sound Point and AHP transactions that transformed AssuredIM into a minority interest in Sound Point, a larger asset manager with significant distribution capabilities, a more diverse array of investment opportunities and a history of strong growth in assets under management. The Sound Point and AHP transactions collectively generated corporate division gains of $222 million or $175 million on an after-tax basis and represent significant accomplishments in our earnings diversification strategy. On a per share basis, even excluding the effect of the Bermuda tax benefit, 2023 adjusted operating income was the highest it has ever been. This reflects the cumulative effect of our long-standing strategic initiatives across all aspects of the business. First, in our insurance business, we have written new business across all our sectors over the past several years, which has led to a stabilized level of scheduled net earned premiums. On the loss mitigation front, we continue to work with troubled issuers to resolve those exposures. And as of December 31, 2023, only 2.2% of our net par outstanding consists of below investment grade credits. We have also successfully diversified earnings. Through our Asset Management segment, we have turned a corner and are now reporting income from our investment in Sound Point and alternative investments where the annualized returns have consistently exceeded returns on the fixed maturity portfolio. And lastly, we have continued to return value to shareholders as we manage our capital, including by repurchasing our shares and paying increased dividends year-over-year. In the Insurance segment, once again, investment results helped drive our adjusted operating income for 2023. We have fair value gains on Puerto Rico CVIs of $74 million in 2023, primarily due to an increase in the sales and use tax collections underlying the CVIs. Since the end of 2023, we sold CVIs with a December 31, 2023 carrying value of $44 million or 15% of the notional amount of CVIs that were remaining. Equity and earnings from our alternative investments were $82 million in 2023, mainly attributable to the CLO strategy. Alternative investments have generated an inception to date annualized internal rate of return of 12.8%. And as of December 31, 2023, via alternative investments with a net asset value of $729 million in the Insurance segment that are accounted for under the equity method. As we have noted in the past, these investments result in more volatility in periodic income compared to our fixed maturity investment portfolio. The $8 billion available for sale, fixed maturity and short-term investment portfolio generated net investment income of $370 million in 2023 compared with $278 million in 2022. The increase was primarily due to higher short-term interest rates and higher short-term balances as well as higher income from loss mitigation securities. Partially offsetting these gains were lower Insurance segment net earned premiums from refunding, which declined by $151 million due to the acceleration of $133 million in earned premium on Puerto Rico exposures that resolved in 2022. More importantly, however, scheduled net earned premiums were consistent year-over-year. Insurance segment loss expense in 2023 was $161 million, up from $12 million in 2022, primarily due to higher Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority losses and a lower benefit on RMBS transactions. Asset Management adjusted operating income for 2023 was a gain of $3 million, and included a past year of AssuredIM and one quarter income from Sound Point. The share repurchase program has been a key strategic objective since 2013 and continues to be accretive to all our key financial metrics. In the fourth quarter of 2023, we increased the pace of repurchases, buying back 1.7 million shares for $109 million at an average price per share of $65.83, consistent with our previously stated plan to increase share repurchases in the second half of the year. This brought our total 2023 repurchases to $199 million or 3.2 million shares, which represents 5.4% of the shares outstanding at the beginning of the year. Since the beginning of our repurchase program in 2013 and through December 31, 2023, we have returned $4.9 billion to shareholders under this program and retired over 144 million shares. Since the end of 2023, we have repurchased another $76 million in shares bringing the remaining authorization to repurchase shares to about $228 million. For 2024, we are targeting $500 million of share repurchases. The timing of share repurchases depends on the timing of dividend availability from insurance subsidiaries as well as assessments of other accretive strategic growth initiatives that may require holding company liquidity. We also declared dividends of $68 million in 2023. And last week, the company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.31 per common share, an increase of 11% from the 2023 quarterly dividend rate of $0.28 per common share. In terms of our current holding company liquidity position, we have cash and investments of approximately $263 million, of which $30 million resides in AGL. These funds include the recent $200 million share redemption from AGC. As a result of the $350 million five-year debt offering in August of last year, whose proceeds were used to refinance $330 million in debt originally due in mid-2024, the holding company funds are available for other liquidity needs or for use in the pursuit of our strategic initiatives, to either expand our business or repurchase shares to manage our capital. Continued share repurchases, along with our positive adjusted operating income, and new business production have increased adjusted operating shareholders’ equity per share and adjusted book value per share to new records of over $106 and almost $156, respectively. While operating results vary from period to period, the consistent quarterly increases in these book value metrics reflect how the successful execution of our key strategic initiatives build shareholder value over the long term. I’ll now turn the call over to our operator to give you the instructions for the Q&A period.