Dominic Frederico
Analyst · Philadelphia Financial. Jordan, your line is now open
Thank you, Robert, and welcome to everyone joining today's call. Assured Guaranty produced solid results in the first quarter of 2022. Adjusted operating income per share came in at $1.34, almost 2.5x comparable result in the first quarter of 2021. Our key non-GAAP valuation measures reached new highs of $90.09 per share for adjusted operating shareholders' equity and $133.21 per share for adjusted book value. Shareholder's equity per share at year end -- at quarter end rather was $89.20, the modest decline during the quarter was due to the unrealized losses in the investment portfolio, which were caused mainly by rising interest rates. Total claims staying resources remained at approximately $11 billion. The signature event of the quarter occurred on March 15 when several Puerto Rico's debt settlements were consummated, distinguishing $1.3 billion of our exposure to Puerto Rico credits. Under those settlements, we paid claims to extinguish the vast majority of our insured exposure to the Commonwealth's general obligation and Public Building Authority bonds and to extinguish all of our exposure to the Islands Convention Center District Authority and Infrastructure Finance Authority. These settlements reduced our exposure to below investment-grade credits by $1.3 billion, and our below investment grade credits now represent only 2.4% of our insured portfolio. In completing these consensual settlements, we received cash and new G.O. bonds totaling approximately $1.2 billion as well as contingent value instruments. As of March 31, our insurance exposure to Puerto Rico credits is now less than 1% of our insured portfolio and the majority of that remaining Puerto Rico exposure is subject to settlement agreements or is current on debt service payments. This past Monday, the Oversight Board filed the proposed plan of adjustment to restructure claims against the Highway and Transportation Authority, which we anticipate will gain federal court approval by the second half of this year. And while the Commonwealth supported by the Oversight Board terminated the third previously agreed restructuring support agreement for the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, the presiding Judge has appointed a team of experienced federal bankruptcy judges to facilitate mediation on an expedited timetable. We have now entered a new stage in Assured Guaranty's evolution, having proven again our commitment and ability to honor our policies while mitigating losses to our active participation in the restructuring process, this time in the largest municipal bankruptcy on record. Rob will provide more detail on the impact of the settlements on our financial results in a few minutes. The settlements were well received by the rating agencies. And in March, Moody's upgraded Assured Guaranty and its subsidiaries, AGM and AGUK to A1 from A2 respectively, with a stable outlook. Moody's cited our improved credit profile following the settlements and the limited expected volatility among our remaining Puerto Rico exposures. It also wrote that demand for financial guarantee insurance continues to trend favorably both in the United States and Europe, which supports the continued alignment of interest between Assured Guaranty shareholders and its policyholders and creditors. Turning to production. And what we all know is an unpredictable first quarter environment, Assured Guaranty performed well, producing new business worth more than $69 million in total PVP. Our international infrastructure and global structured finance businesses each increased PVP by 300% compared with their first quarter PVP last year. Our U.S. public finance first quarter PVP results were very good as well exceeded in only two first quarters during the last decade. Inflation and the expectation of increased federal action -- Fed action had a significant impact on the municipal bond market. In January alone, the AAA 30-year municipal benchmark index rose nearly 50 basis points. And for the first time since April of 2020, municipal bond funds experienced outflows. Over the entire quarter, that benchmark grows more than 100 basis points and net outflow from muni funds exceeded $25 billion. Total par volume of new issuance was down more than 7% when compared with the first quarter of last year. Insured penetration exceeded 8.5% of par issued, the highest first quarter penetration in more than a dozen years and above the par penetration rate of 8.2 for all of 2021, which was also the highest annual rate in 12 years. We led the municipal bond insurance industry again in new issue par insured with a 58% market share. Our $4.8 billion of insured par sold in the first quarter was the second highest in the 11 years. In total, during the first -- during the year's first quarter, Assured Guaranty sold U.S. public finance bond insurance on $5.1 billion of par in the primary and secondary markets. U.S. public finance PVP totaled $49 million for the quarter. We also continue to see issuers using our guarantee to improve the execution on some municipal bond market's largest transactions, which we believe is made possible by significant institutional demand for our guarantee and the relative price stability and increased market liquidity our insurance can provide. We guaranteed par amounts of $100 million or more on several large transactions sold in the quarter, including $755 million of Metropolitan Washington Airport Dallas toll road revenue refunding bonds, $546 million of Los Angeles Department of Airports revenue bonds for the LAX rental car facility project and $272 million of hospital revenue bonds for the University of Louisville. Among credits with underlying S&P or Moody's ratings in the AA category, AGM insured 26 transactions for a total of $535 million of insured par during the quarter, a sign that many in the market recognize the value of our guarantee can add to even highly rated credits. While transactions of this caliber come in road comparatively low premium rates, they also have lower rating agency capital charges and enhanced the risk profile of the insured portfolio. In international infrastructure finance, we produced $12 million of PVP during the quarter. One U.K. transaction was a £170 million, five-year debt service reserve guarantee that repays a bank liquidity facility within the Yorkshire Water Group securitization structure. The guarantee covers certain senior payment obligations due to bondholders and other senior creditors of Yorkshire Water Services Limited. This is the second time we have provided this type of debt service reserve guarantee in the U.K. water sector. Global Structure Finance contributed $8 million of PVP during the first quarter, among other transactions, we guaranteed a highly overcollateralized portfolio of rental income cash flows for an insurance company. Our Asset Management segment improved its adjusted operating income to breakeven for the first quarter. We had an interim close on Assured Healthcare Partners Fund II during the quarter and a final close in April, exceeding its original hard cap of $750 million. And although the CLO primary issuance market that boomed in 2021 slowed precipitously, Assured IM's strong debt investor relationships enabled it to reset one CLO and priced a new CLO that closed in April. During the quarter, Assured IM navigated a challenging investment environment characterized by rising interest rates, a change in monetary policy, market liquidity and volatility and reduced primary issuance and geopolitical conflict. In the floating rate loan market, credit fundamentals remained strong with few defaults and there was demand for floating rate paper, yet the CLO market was volatile. Although the fundamental municipal credit picture is also quite good, municipal bond performance in the first quarter of 2022 was the market's worse since the 1980s because of rising rates, widening credit spreads, heavy outflow from municipal bond funds and a lack of liquidity in the market. Current municipal valuations have now become more attractive, creating better investment opportunities. Our ABS portfolio continued to deliver great returns, notwithstanding the uncertain market conditions, in part because of the strong consumer balance sheet and more specifically, because auto loan securitizations benefited from the lack of new car supply and elevated used car prices. Before I conclude, I want to say that the tragic conditions in the Ukraine and its refugee crisis have troubled us deeply at Assured Guaranty. Our employee-led Corporate Philanthropy Committee quickly identified a number of capable and involved humanitarian charities to which donations from our employees are being matched by the company is $2 for every $1 donated. At the corporate level, we have directly contributed a total of $100,000 to these organizations. In total, including the additional contributions by our employees and the two-to-one corporate match, Assured Guaranty has raised nearly $300,000 for the relief effort. We believe people throughout the world deserve to live in peace and safety. The war in the Ukraine is just one of the geopolitical and economic forces that continue to heighten uncertainty in today's capital markets. The exodus of retail investors from municipal bond funds has contributed to making municipal borrowing more expensive. Last month we saw the 30-year municipal AAA yields exceed 3% for the first time since three days in March of 2020, a month notorious for its pandemic-induced liquidity crisis. We have seen credit spreads widen recently. All this should encourage issuers to look for the most competitive, cost-effective executions, which will frequently involve bond insurance. Similar dynamics are at play in the international and structured finance sectors. We could be entering the kind of interest rate and credit spread conditions that I have often said would allow for greater growth in our financial guaranty business -- conditions that would likely give us more opportunities to add value and greater pricing leeway. The Fed's half-point rate increase this week came with an indication of more increases to come. The stock market soared on the news, then plummeted the next day, indicating recession fears have not gone away. Market volatility and recession fears tend to create investor demand for our product. Importantly, our business model has proven to be resilient in difficult times, protecting our company's financial strength and shareholder value, while we safeguard our policyholders and save money for issuers. We have been successful through a long period of challenging market conditions, and it looks like we may be entering a more favorable environment. We believe the emerging market conditions in the marketplace could be a springboard for our growth. I will now turn the call over to Rob.