Dominic Frederico
Analyst · KBW
Thank you, Robert and welcome to everyone joining today's call. The second quarter was very successful for Assured Guaranty with $141 million in non-GAAP operating income, new highs in key shareholder value measures, substantial new business production and a milestone in our efforts to diversify our revenue base and intelligently deployed our excess insurance company capital to the execution of one of our strategic objectives. I'll let Rob give you the details about our earnings results and our continuing share repurchase program in a few minutes. I'll start with the news we released yesterday. We have taken a significant step forward in our strategic execution by adding an asset management component to our overall business operations. This will diversify our revenue sources with fee-based income and provide an additional engine for growth in profits and free cash flow. We accomplished this by investing some of our trapped excess capital in a seasonal trend of asset management company, whose core competencies and credit culture are compatible with ours and with a likelihood for attractive returns is high. We have agreed to acquire BlueMountain, a highly regarded asset management firm, with a scale that can provide meaningful returns to Assured Guaranty. BlueMountain has extensive experience evaluating credit and managing investments and it is recognized as a top tier CLO manager. We can leverage its sophisticated infrastructure to facilitate future acquisitions in the asset management sector. And we see credit and capital market synergies with our existing financial guaranty franchise in a number of areas such as CLOs, asset-backed finance, infrastructure and healthcare. BlueMountain's top management will join Assured Guaranty, not only to continue running BlueMountain, but also to lead Assured Guaranty's alternative investment strategy. BlueMountain's CEO, Andrew Feldstein, who is also a cofounder of BlueMountain and its current Chief Investment Officer, will become Assured Guaranty's Chief Investment Officer and Head of our Asset Management Business, bringing his leadership, experience, investment acumen and enthusiasm for building the asset management component of our business strategy, as well as oversee the management of the overall Assured Guaranty investment portfolio. Andrew will join us later in the call and be available in the Q&A. Under the agreement we'll be purchasing for approximately $160 million all the outstanding equity interests of BlueMountain Capital Management LLC and its associated entities, subject to certain customary closing conditions and regulatory approval. We will also contribute $60 million in working capital to BlueMountain at closing and we expect to provide an additional $30 million of working capital within a year after that. Additionally, we expect to invest $500 million of BlueMountain funds, CLOs in separately managed accounts over a three-year period. We anticipate a fourth quarter closing. We intend to fund the acquisition with loans from AGM, MAC and AGC, subject to regulatory approval. This approach allows us to put capital in our insurance companies to work, supporting the asset management business, without using our dividend capacity or special dividend. And we expect that having BlueMountain manage $500 million of our investment in portfolio will result in higher investment income, which should lead to higher dividend capacity for our insurance subsidiaries in the future. I should note that S&P recently updated the bond insurance investment portfolio capital charges to the same charges that applies to property, casualty, life and other insurance companies. This opens up a broader range of investment options for us, with more favorable capital treatment from S&P. Remember, previously under S&P rules, any investment rated below A can credit 100% capital charge. As structured, we expect the transaction to have no impact on our financial strength ratings. And as I mentioned, we plan to continue our current share repurchase program, and yesterday our board approved an incremental $300 million in share repurchases. Turning to second quarter production, both the municipal bond industry as a whole, and Assured Guaranty in particular, performed well in comparison with last year’s second quarter, even though overall conditions in U.S. public finance were extremely challenging. The total par volume of second quarter municipal bond issuance declined approximately 5%, and the increased demand for tax-exempt bonds caused by tax reform has actually driven rates down in our principal market, as investors reportedly poured a record $47 billion into municipal bond funds during the first half of this year. The second quarter also saw 30-year AAA tax-exempt yields, decline from 2.60% to 2.31% and the spread between the 30-year single-A and AAA GOs shrink as low as 37 basis points at quarter-end. That spread was never above 43 basis points during the quarter, compared with an average of 53 basis points during 2017 and 2018. The second quarter saw the tightest credit spread environment since the financial crisis, which eliminated some transactions that might have benefited from insurance if interest rates were higher and spreads had been wider. In spite of this challenging environment, municipal bond insurance was still used on 6.9% of total par and 17.9% of the new issues sold in the second quarter, compared with last year’s second quarter. The use of insurance increased, with the total par volume of new issues sold with insurance rising 13% and the number of insured transactions up 38%. Those increases were driven mainly by Assured Guaranty’s performance, with our par volume up 27% to $3.7 billion, representing a 60% share of the insured par volume and our deal count rising 59% to 260 new issues. Our performance looks even better when you consider the 186% increase in the par we insured in the secondary market, where we capitalized on attractively priced opportunities. When you include our secondary market business, our total U.S. public finance par volume exceeded $4 billion in the quarter. And yesterday, by the way, we guaranteed a $700 million portion of an issue by CommonSpirit Health, our largest public finance transaction so far this year. In the international infrastructure market, we continue to see growing interest in our product. In the United Kingdom, we executed a £50 million Scottish housing association transaction during the second quarter. And last week, we announced our guaranty of a £124 million student accommodation financing for the University of Leicester. We expect the U.K. market to continue providing opportunities, including both new-money issues and refinancings and our international strategy also continues to emphasize diversification into a variety of national markets. During the second quarter, we wrapped the first guaranteed solar energy transaction in Spain, a €207 million refinancing of nine solar energy plants. This is the largest renewable energy transaction that we have guaranteed anywhere and we are optimistic about additional transactions in the solar sector. The transaction was privately placed with both European and South Korean investors. In the Australia/New Zealand market, we have signed an exclusive co-operation agreement with DTW Capital Solutions, the Sydney-based independent arranger and advisor, which we developed a strong working relationship with collaborating on last year’s Port of Brisbane transaction. We believe DTW’s experience and relationships in its home market will help us expand the use of our guarantees in a market where there is a significant need for long-term financial solutions. In global structured finance, the highlight of the quarter was a secondary market guaranty of a $208 million middle market collateralized bond obligation, which was purchased by a European asset manager. We've been fielding numerous inquiries regarding CLOs and are focusing on educating potential investors about the benefits of holding investments we guarantee. We believe we have tapped only a fraction of the potential business where we help financial institutions and insurance companies manage their capital efficiently. We also anticipate more opportunities in the life insurance and aviation sectors. During the third quarter, we closed a significant insurance reserve transaction. Across all three financial guaranty product lines for the first half, we generated $96 million of PVP, and in the third quarter so far, we have added another $65 million of PVP, with significant contributions from each of the product lines. A strong start to our third quarter. Central to all of our financial guaranty businesses is our financial strength, and the rating agencies recently offered additional confirmation of that strength. In June, S&P affirmed the ratings of all of our insurance units at AA with a stable outlook. S&P does not publish a figure for our excess capital under their AAA depression stress model, but we estimate it was approximately $3.2 billion as of December 31, 2018 under the criteria used in their June report. This is $400 million higher than our December 31, 2017 number of $2.8 billion, despite our capital management program and the continued payment of Puerto Rico debt service claims. S&P has subsequently come out with new bond insurer rating criteria, which includes the more favorable capital charge treatment of our investment portfolio that I mentioned earlier. The new S&P criteria will also improve the capital charge treatment of our hospital transactions. We are confident the updated criteria will not have -- will not affect our ratings out -- our ratings or our outlook at S&P. And recently, Kroll Bond Rating Agency affirmed its AA+ rating of MAC, our U.S.-only municipal bond insurance platform that primarily provides insurance for small- and medium-sized municipal bond issues. The outlook is stable. Lastly, A.M. Best last month affirmed its A+ rating of AGRO, the Bermuda-based subsidiary responsible for our aviation residual value insurance business and some of our structured solutions for the insurance industry. In the quarter, we saw some progress in Puerto Rico. A highlight of the second quarter was the restructuring support agreement for the debt of the electrical power utility PREPA, which I discussed in our last call. This can now be the basis for an acceptable plan of adjustment that will allow PREPA to focus on the reforms necessary to develop a 21st century electrical system, one that the people of Puerto Rico can trust. This is an important opportunity for Puerto Rico, and we look forward to the RSA receiving the necessary approvals to go forward. At the same time, we saw that the economic recovery has been coming faster and stronger, than the Oversight Board forecasted. Even after multiple norm optimistic revisions, the projections the Oversight Board used as a basis for its fiscal plans continues to understate the true strength of the Commonwealth revenues. That should be seen as good news for everyone. Anyone who follows the news is aware of the uproar created by the public exposure of the blatant cronyism, cynicism and corruption in Puerto Rico's political arena. In the midst of this political disarray following the governor's resignation, the Title III court has had the good judgment to send a number of bond disputes back in the mediation, which has halted the Oversight Board's attempt to steamroll acceptance of an unfair G.O. restructuring agreement negotiated between the Board and a small number of G.O. creditors that purchased their bonds at deep discounts. This could be a watershed moment when Puerto Rico's decision-makers, including the Oversight Board, as well as Congress, see that the problem in Puerto Rico is not a lack of funds to pay constitutionally protected creditors, but a lack of recognition that recovery and stability are best, and most quickly achieved by respecting and following the rule of law. It is time for thoughtful negotiations that put an end to the ongoing, time consuming and expensive legal battles and the return to the rule of the law. Lastly, I want to highlight how we have executed on our four principle strategies so far this year. In new business production, we performed well in one of the worst interest rate environments we have had to deal with, and we demonstrated the wisdom of our strategy to operate in multiple domestic and international markets. In capital management, we continued to increase shareholder value by repurchasing $248 million of common shares through August the 7. In our acquisition and alternative investment strategy, we came to agreement on our most important alternative investment to date, one that should increase the value for our company and diversify our revenue sources. And we furthered our loss mitigation strategy by continuing to recover structured finance losses and by reaching important restructuring agreements in Puerto Rico while defending principles important to well-functioning financial markets. I will now turn the call over to Rob.