Dominic Frederico
Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead
Thank you, Robert, and welcome to everyone joining today’s call. In the second quarter of 2018, Assured Guaranty recorded its highest quarterly gross premiums written and present value of new business production, or PVP, since the acquisition of AGM in 2009. Gross premiums written totaled $393 million, and PVP totaled $454 million, largely because on June 1st we closed the previously announced reinsurance transaction with Syncora. This makes it four consecutive years in which we increased our future earnings power by executing one of our core strategies of acquiring the insured portfolios of our former competitors. AGC assumed substantially all of Syncora’s insured portfolio, and AGM commuted the reinsurance on a book of business it had previously ceded to Syncora. We will also, for a fee, administer the reinsured book on behalf of Syncora. Unlike our other legacy monoline transactions, this one has limited impact on current-year earnings, but the $391 million of PVP it contributed will benefit future income and enhance the value of the company for many years. At the midpoint of 2018, Assured Guaranty’s value per share is higher than ever, whether measured by our shareholders’ equity per share of $60.52 or our key non-GAAP measures, operating shareholders’ equity and adjusted book value, which are $58.60 and $82.83 per share, respectively. Our capital management program continues to be an important strategic objective and a driver of shareholder value. Year-to-date, we have repurchased 8.3 million shares at a total cost of $300 million, at an average price of $36.11 per share. With our Board’s new $250 million share repurchase authorization, we are currently authorized to repurchase another $298 million of shares. In terms of new business, direct new business production has been constrained this year by reduced municipal bond issuance, which is due in part to lower refunding volume caused primarily by tax reform. New-money issuance has actually risen from last year’s level. The impact of tax reform on refunding levels was less severe in the second quarter than in the first, as a significant amount of business rushed to the market before year-end to benefit from the old law and decreased first-quarter supply. While second quarter overall market volume was down almost 7% compared with last year’s second quarter, it was up 52% from the first quarter of this year. Insurance penetration has remained relatively steady near 6% as interest rates remained low and spreads tight. We continue to lead the municipal bond insurance industry and guaranteed 53% of new-issue insured par sold in the second quarter, and 50% in the first half. Our strategy has been to focus on transactions that provided comparatively higher premium dollars and better returns over the longer term, taking advantage of our competitive advantage in insuring large transactions that appeal to institutional investors. Year-to-date through June, we were selected to insure $50 million or more of par on 21 different transactions, including seven where we insured $100 million or more of par. Those seven transactions represented approximately $1.6 billion of the $5.4 billion we insured across our 418 primary-market transactions and secondary-market policies sold in the first half of the year. Our structured finance group, through AGRO, closed its first direct residual value insurance transaction in the aviation market and obtained mandates for similar transactions. Elsewhere in the aviation market, we expect to close additional reinsurance transactions and are investigating other opportunities in this space. Internationally, we guaranteed UK regulated utility transactions in the secondary market during the second quarter. This is the eleventh consecutive quarter that we generated PVP outside the United States. We continue to see opportunities arising from the beneficial regulatory capital treatment that life insurers and banks obtain by applying our guarantee to certain portions of their asset portfolios. We can provide these capital management solutions for structured finance and infrastructure transactions in both primary and secondary markets. I’m pleased to say we continue to receive strong reviews from the ratings agencies.
, : More recently, KBRA has reaffirmed its AA+ stable rating it has assigned to MAC since we capitalized it in 2013. KBRA’s new report reiterates that MAC can withstand AAA level of KBRA stress losses, with a comfortable balance remaining, and it notes that MAC has a diverse, high-quality insured portfolio and no exposure to Puerto Rico. And that brings us to Puerto Rico. It’s now time to face the unfortunate reality: PROMESA has failed. Its intent was to provide structure for accelerated consensual negotiations so Puerto Rico could regain access to the capital markets and put its fiscal house in order without suffering through a morass of costly and extended litigation. Instead, the members of the Oversight Board have routinely ignored the specific requirements of PROMESA they were appointed to enforce. Even the tireless efforts of the House Committee on Natural Resources, which drafted PROMESA, to keep the Board on task to its legal requirements and Congress’ intent have gone repeatedly unheeded. Title III of PROMESA was intended only as a last resort after all attempts at consensual settlement had been exhausted. You can now see the litigation quagmire caused by the Oversight Board’s rush to the Title III courthouse, as well as its indifference to the plain language and Congressional intent of PROMESA. It rejected the PREPA settlement that was grandfathered by PROMESA, forced PREPA into bankruptcy, and objected to creditors’ rightful request to have a receiver appointed to run the utility, all of which left PREPA more vulnerable to the island-wide blackout and the incompetence of have tragically followed Hurricane Maria. Two years into PROMESA, we’ve seen four PREPA CEOs come and go, along with a parade of expensive advisors, and now a third iteration of its board has resigned. This week, the Oversight Board, the Commonwealth and PREPA struck a deal with a subgroup of uninsured PREPA creditors to develop a new RSA. We are not a party to that deal and we will continue to vigorously enforce our property rights as a secured creditor in the PREPA Title III case, while also continuing to seek engagement with the government and its parties to resolve these matters consensually. Elsewhere, the Oversight Board rejected a proposed settlement between G.O. and COFINA bondholders that would have been an important step toward achieving a comprehensive settlement or plan of adjustment for a significant portion of Puerto Rico’s debt. The Oversight Board and negotiating agents for the Commonwealth and COFINA then hurriedly inked a separate plan that excluded any resolution for the holders of G.O. bonds, the highest priority debt on the island. The Oversight Board has developed fiscal plans without transparency or meaningful input from creditors and without reliable data on which to base its decisions. The Commonwealth still cannot produce timely financial statements let alone a clean audit. The most recent financial statements are for the fiscal year that ended back in June of 2015, and they were released last month with a heavily qualified, 13-page auditors’ opinion drawing into serious question the reliability of the statements. Yet the Oversight Board certified a fiscal plan with this obvious lack of confirmation of the accuracy of the financial information. Based on speculation rather than sound financial information, the Commonwealth repeatedly proposed fiscal plans that did not meet PROMESA’s requirement to respect the relative lawful priorities and liens established by Puerto Rico’s constitution, law and agreements. They have also not made public the information required by PROMESA to allow creditors to adequately understand the status of the island’s financial position and assess potential resolutions. These plans authorized the unlawful diversion of bondholder collateral away from secured creditors, such as Highways and Transportation Authority bondholders, for the benefit of the Commonwealth. Additionally, the plans’ projections assume a precipitous, multi-billion dollar drop in federal Medicaid funding during the plan period while expecting the territory’s Medicaid expenses to grow rapidly, while also inconsistently projecting a population decrease. The Oversight Board eventually approved its own fiscal plan incorporating the same violations of PROMESA and many more unsound and even arbitrary assumptions. By ignoring its own founding legislation, the Oversight Board is eroding confidence in the rule of law and shutting the door on future capital market investment in Puerto Rico’s infrastructure. This will prevent the economic recovery that the people of Puerto Rico need and that, we believe, serves the best interest of all parties. Keep in mind, and in response to the misguided attacks by some elected officials of Congress, we did not acquire our exposure by buying discounted bonds; we have the exposure because we have been a long-term partner of Puerto Rico, helping it to reduce its borrowing costs for fundamental infrastructure projects, like roads, utilities, schools and hospitals. We have irrevocable long-term commitments to Puerto Rico and its insured bondholders and have every reason to support constructive solutions. We have a documented track record of reaching consensual and constructive solutions with other distressed municipalities in the past. Unfortunately, at this time, we have no confidence that PROMESA will provide any resolutions. We have reconsidered the manner in which the board members were appointed and concluded that it was an end-run around the U.S. Constitution’s Appointments Clause. There is no historical precedent for how the current Oversight Board members were chosen effectively by individual members of Congress - and for them to take office without Senate confirmation. This procedure dismantles constitutional safeguards that ensure the separation of powers and public accountability for the appointment process. Since, we believe, the board members were unconstitutionally appointed, they have no lawful authority to initiate Title III proceedings, and we have filed a complaint seeking dismissal of the Title III filing for the Highways and Transportation Authority on those grounds. Judge Swain rejected a similar argument in the Commonwealth’s Title III case, which is being appealed, so our complaint will allow us to participate in the appellate phase of the various Appointments Clause lawsuits. The conditions for a consensual settlement clearly exist. The people of Puerto Rico deserve a prompt, consensual settlement that allows their government to regain access to capital market financing, restore the island’s economy and credibility and improve its residents’ quality of life. To help educate people about the Puerto Rico situation, we recently launched a website called revitalizepuertorico.com. I encourage you to visit that site. It is a great resource for current and historical facts and viewpoints. I’ll conclude by saying we have a very positive outlook for our company for the rest of this year. The economy is strong, rates are increasing slowly, and municipal issuance seems to be reviving, and we have significant opportunities in all three of our core financial guaranty markets. I will now turn the call over to Rob.