Gary D. Kain
Analyst · Credit Suisse
Great question. I think the short answer is, there are a lot of different outcomes that could create, that could allow us, in a sense, to move back to a more normal risk position on either, let's say the duration front or the leverage front or both for that matter. I mean go through a couple examples, if it turns out that while the Fed obviously would like to raise rates there are lot of questions as to whether the inflation picture in for that matter the economy are really going to allow that to happen. And if it becomes clear that's not going to happen and we rally further, it is likely that mortgages will widen and some due to prepayment exposure, and production, that would probably led us to be very willing to take up leverage and you know, that could happen relatively quickly. Alternatively, if, if we kind of go in the other direction, where the global economic force is kind of weaken or strengthened and the deflationary forces weaken, then, and we end up at higher interest rates, it's - it's very likely that we'd be willing, at least first to increase our duration gap because our mindset is that it's very likely in that scenario that move is somewhat temporary. So I think it’s likely that we'd be willing to increase our duration gap meaningfully, if that were to happen, and then depending on the performance of mortgages, if mortgages were to weaken in that environment, then we'd love to take leverage up as well. It's very possible that they'll actually perform relatively well in which case that the increasing leverage scenario may take a little longer. But- and then lastly, if we just kind of grind in one direction or the other, but we reduce some of this kind of two-sided uncertainty, then I think you'll see movement either way, back toward, over time a more normal position. I mean again, we don't, we look at this as being a reaction to kind of the current environment and I think there are number of ways where that position can change.