Gary D. Kain
Analyst · Wells Fargo. Please go ahead
Thanks, Peter and before I open up the call to questions, I want to expand on the current interest rate landscape. And how it has impacted AGNC's performance. On Slide 11, the graph on the top left highlights the volatility I touched on in my opening remarks. The large two-sided rate swings stand out, but so does the continuation of a five-quarter trends lower in rates. It is really pretty amazing that a little over a year ago, the yield on the ten-year treasury was at 3% and the consensus was that rates were only headed higher. Today, the ten-year yields less than 2%. Moreover, in the midst of this rally the unemployment rate has declined from 6.7% at the end of 2013 to 5.5% today. The Fed ended QE3 over six months ago and now seems intent to trying to begin to raise rates later in 2015. Yet, today, the consensus view on rates is more balanced, despite the rally, the stronger data, and The Fed. Why? A big part of that answer relates to the information summarized on the table to the right. US rates have certainly not trended lower in isolation and most market participants attribute the bulk of the rally in U.S. rates to what is happening globally and in Europe in particular. Weak global growth and deflationary forces have led to substantial quantitative easing on the part of the ECB and Japanese Central Bank. The combination of these forces have pushed some overseas sovereign yields to what would have been thought of is impossible levels a few years ago. If you look at the table to the right, you can see what has happened to one, five and ten-year rates in some relevant countries. In the interest of time, let me focus on the five-year rates for a moment and let me at the top with Switzerland. No, that is not a typo and yes you do have to pay the Swiss government 40 basis points for the privilege of lending them money for five years. In Germany, you have to pay them ten basis points, while French and Japanese five-year rates were yielding just north of zero as of March 31. Against this back drop, U.S. rates look very attractive to global fixed income investors, especially when coupled with the view that the dollar is likely to hold its own or strengthen. This is a key reason why many participants are convinced that U.S. rates are unlikely to rise much, even if The Fed does tighten in 2015. When you couple this technical support with a more fundamental view that there are significant headwinds on the inflation front, such as the negative implications of a stronger dollar, low energy prices, and the implications of global competition and technological advances on the U.S. wage picture. A reasonable case can actually be made for even lower U.S. rates. That said, what makes this environment so difficult is a tug-of-war between these arguments and a U.S. economy which is clearly made substantial progress on the employment front and a fed that wants to start to normalize rates. In addition, it is also reasonable to believe that the massive global stimulus currently being supplied, coupled with soaring asset prices will kick in and at least temporarily boost global growth and take some pressure off the dollar. If that happens or is believed to be happening that a spike higher in rates, given The Fed's stance is quite possible. We believe this conundrum has been a key driver of the recent volatility where the market tends to overshoot in either direction. When you couple this with an overall decline in bond market liquidity, partially as a result of the regulatory environment and partially due to the outside Central Bank activities, you get an environment where idiosyncratic risk is elevated. Now, if we turn to Slide 12, I want to conclude today's prepared remarks with a good news. We've already discussed why we feel it's prudent to be conservative with our positioning in light of the heightened volatility in global rates markets. But I also need to stress how manageable this volatility has actually been for our portfolio. AGNC's decision to start reporting monthly NAV estimates beginning last October provides investors with significant insight into our quarter performance. As the gray bars on the top left graph show, our book value has not changed by more than 1% from the prior months NAV in any of the last six months. Even against the back drop of the substantial interest rate volatility we just discussed. This result wouldn't be possible if we were running large duration or curved positions. The blue line on the graph, on the right, is even more important. It shows that we have seen steady and consistent growths in our economic returns over the past six months. It was only one-month which didn't produce positive economic returns and in that month, the economic return was essentially flat. Additionally, in February, when interest rates spiked, we had our best monthly return during this six-month period. The bottom line is while there's a great deal of volatility in the markets, the agency MBS market is not even close to being at the eye of any potential storm like it was in 2013. And yes, the rate picture is cloudy, but it is also very manageable with the right combination of prudent portfolio positioning and active management. So, with that, let me open up the lines to questions.