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Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM)

Q1 2019 Earnings Call· Sun, May 5, 2019

$170.35

-2.53%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day and welcome to the Farmer Mac First Quarter 2019 Investor Conference Call and Webcast. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Brad Nordholm president and CEO. Please go ahead, sir.

Bradford Nordholm

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Good morning. I'm Brad Nordholm. And I am very pleased to welcome you to our 2019 first quarter investor conference call. We posted a slide deck to our website. And we'll be referring to that throughout today's call. This morning's press release also includes information about where these slides could be found. We have a number of positive developments to discuss today, but before I begin I need to first ask Steve Mullery, our General Counsel to comment on forward looking statements that management may make today as well as to Farmer Mac's use of non-GAPP financial statements. Steve?

Stephen Mullery

Analyst

Thanks, Brad. Some of the statements made on this conference call may be forward-looking statements under the Securities Laws. We make these statements based on our current expectations and assumptions about future events and business performance, and we may not be obligated to update these statements after this call. We caution you that forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from the results expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. In evaluating Farmer Mac, you should consider these risks and uncertainty as well as those described in our 2018 Annual Report on Form 10-K and our first quarter 2019 Form 10-Q filed with the SEC. In analyzing its financial information, Farmer Mac sometimes uses measures of financial performance that are not presented in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles in the United States, also known as non-GAAP measures. Disclosures and reconciliations of Farmer Mac's non-GAAP measures can be found in the most recent Form 10-Q and earnings release posted on Farmer Mac's website farmermac.com under the financial information portion of the Investors section. A recording of this call will be available on our website for two weeks starting later today.

Bradford Nordholm

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Thanks, Steve. I am happy to report a very successful first quarter of 2019. Our financial results are strong as we'll discuss, and we also work to build a stronger foundation for future growth. The objectives outlined in our long term strategic plan emphasize innovation and how we acquire customers and how we develop new products. And we do that to further our mission. As a part of this, we're presently evaluating all of our lines of business, our products and how would go to the market as a wholesaler to streamline new business opportunities and more efficiently deliver on that mission. Notably, we recently created a new executive level position here at Farmer Mac and that person will head up our lines of business. We're calling this our new Chief Business Officer, and he will be starting in about a week. So stay tuned for more information from him. As I mentioned during our last quarter's call, we entered into a master participation agreement with CoBank in February of 2019, and we subsequently purchased $546 million of seasoned rural utility loan participations. This is Farmer Mac's first direct loan participation purchase with CoBank, also with any other farm credit institution. And it represents important progress in developing on our mission to increase the availability and affordability of credit for rural America. We have good ongoing discussions with CoBank and also with other farm credit system banks. And with several farm, large Farm Credit System associations as well with other market participants in Project energy finance. This is all part of building an even stronger foundation for future growth here at Farmer Mac. You'll note in our SEC filings that on March 14, 2019, the Board of Directors modified the terms of Farmer Mac's existing share repurchase program by increasing…

Curt Covington

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Thanks, Brad. For farmers and ranchers, spring is an important and symbolic season. Most producers by this time have their operating financing in place, represents a fresh start to a new crop year, a time for tactical planting and marketing decisions that are the first in the city of Dominos that set in motion the prospects for success in 2019. In spite of a well-publicized flood in the Midwest, farmers moved ahead with spring planting decisions that will in large part determine the level of year in crop inventories and the direction of market prices. For cattle ranchers, the outcome from a tough calving season would become much clearer by the end of spring, setting the stage for this year's and next year's operating results. For dairy farmers, who are anxiously awaiting for better economic conditions, the change of seasons brings what's known as the dairy flush, a time of year when cows are expected to produce seasonally higher levels of milk coming off a very cold winter, and signs of a healthy or perhaps unhealthy cattle herd. Nut and fruit producers in the West are well into their 2019 growing season, and are thankful for the bountiful for rains received over the winter months. And the bloom of the fruit orchards remains – reminds us of a natural beauty that's intrinsic in food production. If you've never experienced a full fruit or nut orchard blossom, it is truly a display of nature's many blessings. Amidst all this spring provides a lot of new data and decisions on which to evaluate the year ahead. And agricultural lenders are following and supporting these decisions intently. This spring, it isn't difficult to locate stress in the agricultural economy. After all, we're entering in the sixth year of a slow Ag economy since…

Bradford Nordholm

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Thank you, Curt. Dale, you want to go through the financial results.

Dale Lynch

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Sure. Thanks, Brad. Turning to first quarter 2019 results, as you can see on Slide 5, our outstanding business volume increased by a net $782 million to $20.5 billion as of March 31, 2019. This increase is driven by net growth of $483 million in our Rural Utilities and $349 million in the Institutional Credit lines of business. This net growth was offset in part by net recent decreases of $31 million and $18 million respectively in the USDA guaranteed securities in the farm and ranch lines of business. The net growth in our Rural Utilities line of business is primarily due to the large purchase of a large pool of loan participations. As we mentioned on last quarter's call, Farmer Mac entered into a master participation agreement with CoBank, under which we purchased a portfolio of participations of seasoned rural utilities loans in the amount of $546 million. This transaction settled on February 19 and thus contributed less than a half a quarter's worth of net effective spreads this period. Within the Institutional Credit line of business, we experienced net business volume growth in augmented securities purchased from large counterparties of $334 million and net growth purchased from smaller financial fund counterparties of $15 million. The net growth from our large counterparties is driven by the purchase of a new $325 million AgVantage security in the rural utilities industry. Because of purchase of this security settled on February 15, it contributed approximately half a quarter's worth of net effective spread in this period. Looking at Farm & Ranch, our Farm and Ranch line of business experienced a net decrease of $18 million, which is comprised of a $41 million net decrease in loans under purchase commitment, which is our credit protection product, partially offset by a $23 million net…

Bradford Nordholm

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Thank you, Dale. We're all very proud of our recent successes, from the recent significant-sized transactions in the rural utility industry totaling about $870 million in gross new business in the first quarter alone. To our new dividend policy, our share buyback program and the recent addition in key personnel, I believe that we're really delivering results. Our returns to our common stockholders continue to lead those of other financial institutions, and our credit quality remains very favorable. As I did it on last quarter's call, I want to close with just a few observations. I've now just completed my first six months as President and CEO. And I'd like to note the following: First of all, Farmer Mac is in very strong financial condition, with excellent credit quality, exceptional access to competitively cost funding, strong earnings, disciplined cost management and a strong capital base. Second point is that we have an extremely dedicated group of employees. They're smart, they're capable, they're mission driven and they're eager. And with some of the changes that are currently under way, some of the personnel changes that are being made, we're seeing further excitement and passion and creativity to do even more. Third is that our suite of products have inherent competitive advantages, and those advantages are attributable to our competitively cost funding and our efficient delivery. I just note that we're currently running about a $20 billion balance sheet and about $5 billion of annual originations, and we're doing that with about 100 employees. And because we have the plan and the commitment to improve how we utilize technology, we have potential for further improvement in that operating efficiency. I believe that we have an opportunity to drive organic growth at rates well ahead of the general agricultural credit markets. We can increase market share, and by doing that we better fulfill our mission of serving rural America. This is an entirely exciting time for Farmer Mac. It's an exciting time for me. And now, operator, I'd like to see if we have any questions from many on the line today.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. We will now begin the question and answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first question is from Mr. Scott Valentin of Compass Point. Please go ahead.

Scott Valentin

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. Dale, Just with regard to the spread, I know it's in the range. You talk about it historically, but did drop linked quarter, and I didn't know if it was either due to the timing of the participations or whether it was – I think you mentioned LIBOR as going – driving part of that. But LIBOR curve has kind of come down a little bit and if there's some offsetting, maybe some positive impacts going forward given changes in LIBOR – the LIBOR futures curve?

Dale Lynch

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Scott, I think it's – the biggest single impact really is our financing costs relative to LIBOR IV, here we call sort of our basis risk asset, the assets that we have to refinance the funding for on a regular basis. And as you know, all financials are seeing this pressure. The swap curve relative to the sovereign curve has been under pressure. In particular, the last four months has been – probably it's been – that the most unfavorable it's been in three or four years. We make some adjustments to that. We can optimize it, and mute the impact, but over half of that 2 basis point change for – sequentially was due to the LIBOR impact. It started to come back a bit, and we think we have a – that our outlook here for the next period of time, next number of months, say, three – two to four months in that window. We're little bit optimistic that we're going to see some of these pressures ameliorating less Treasury issuance et cetera, et cetera. We need repos to kind of normalize and see before [ph] it's normalizes here a little bit, that'll come off. But look, strategically we're kind of in that spread range that we've been talking about for quite a bit, being kind of locked between 89 and 91-ish. That's where we've been and other than some erratic [ph] move in business mix, I – even it feels pretty stable in those – in that range.

Scott Valentin

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Okay. That's helpful. I appreciate it. And then, Brad, you mentioned long-term market share goals requires a doubling of volume. Is there a kind of time frame associated, are we making investments now to – you're adding staff and improving processes, but is there – is that a goal to double volumes in next, call it, couple of years or is it a matter of quarters do you think?

Bradford Nordholm

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

If you look out at strategic plan, Scott, we have kind of framework reference of five years and 15 years. And so you see growth rates in the 9%, 10%, 11% range, ramping up a little bit in out years. And so that's a general reference to a general higher level of volume attainment of doubling, that would be achieved in that period of time.

Scott Valentin

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Okay. Thanks. And then and regarding that the pipeline, obviously a very good quarter for originations and you had a good quarter. Two questions regarding that. One on the pipeline, how's that look relative to, say, same time last year? Is it in line, is it much higher? And two, you point out prepayments slowed quite a bit. Do you think that's durable or is that transitory?

Bradford Nordholm

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Now, on your last point, prepayments have been historically at the lowest end of the range for a long time now, but they continue to grind a little bit tighter each year. We're looking at plus or minus CPRs around 5 right now. I'd say two years ago, we had CPRs of maybe 7.5 to 8.5. So with ground a bit tighter, but still 7.5 and 8.5 are pretty low. So as far as pipeline [indiscernible].

Curt Covington

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Sure. Scott, as relates to pipeline, it can kind of break apart and come in on some of the different lines of business we have. Curt talked about some of the factors going on in the countryside right now that are impacting this. I think our near-term outlook for Farm & Ranch is pretty flat as it has been last year. There are fewer refinances for the reasons Dale mentioned. Some of those related to interest rates and changes or lack of changes in interest rates. But Farm & Ranch fairly flat. I think our rural utility outlook with the exception of a potential new area of projects announced is also fairly flat. But our institutional business, where we have an opportunity for more innovation around structured product and with various types of agro businesses the pipeline there is actually deeper than it's ever been.

Scott Valentin

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Thanks for that. And I'll ask one more – a final question. On credit, you mentioned, it's still below historical levels. It's crept up, I know there's some seasonality involved, so it's tough to tease out seasonality from any real deterioration. But just wondering on credit, two things; one, how important is NAFTA, USMCA getting that executed and getting that passed for the farm economy. And if it does pass, do you see a material benefits to credit quality? And two, are you making any changes in kind of targeting asset classes or agricultural products based on what you see in agricultural economy, maybe less, and less dairy and more fruit and nut, as an example?

Bradford Nordholm

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

I'll let Curt elaborate on this. But I think as it relates to targeting sectors, we really look at everything that is coming in through important Farm & Ranch and Institutional business, and we evaluate those credit opportunities based on our current assessment of market conditions and what that means for cash flow. But Curt?

Curt Covington

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Yeah. I would just say in terms of as it relates to our pipeline, but also relates to the segments we've looked at. We talked around here a lot that we still see really good deals in tough industries. In the last year and even in the first quarter of 2019, just as an example, Gary has probably been under the most pressure of any commodity out there as it relates to trade issues. But in that regard, there's still principally a number of really good operators and deals and we've had an opportunity to purchase or be a part of. And they are very, very solid credit. But I guess, to finish this is to say, yeah, all these trade issues are a drag. They are a drag on the farm economy. I don't think anybody can argue that. Some of them might just be emotional, more than it is economic. But it is definitely a drag. And so these trade issues, that the NAFTA get signed off and we reengage China, it's going to be a, I think, in many respects a boon for the dairy sector and for, meaning the fruit and vegetable sectors, and also for the grain sector and hog sector for that matter.

Scott Valentin

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Okay. Thanks very much for the color.

Curt Covington

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Thanks, Scott.

Operator

Operator

[Operator instructions] Gentlemen, this concludes our Q&A session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Nordholm for any closing remarks.

Bradford Nordholm

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Good, well, I'd like to conclude by just thanking everyone for listening and participating in our call this morning. We will be having our next regularly scheduled call to discuss second quarter results in August of 2019, and look forward to sharing additional information with you at that time. As is always the case, if you have questions that you'd like to discuss with us, don't hesitate to be in touch. With that thank you very much and good day.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, you may now disconnect.