Andy Beck
Analyst · Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs
Thank you, Martin, and good morning. I will start on Slide 6, which looks at AGCO's regional net sales results for the second quarter and first half of 2019. AGCO's sales were flat compared to the second quarter of 2018, excluding the negative impact of currency translation which lowered sales by approximately 5%. The Europe Middle East segment net sales were also flat excluding the negative impact of currency translation compared to the second quarter of 2018. Sales growth in France and Germany was offset by declines in Scandinavia and the U.K. AGCO's Second quarter 2019 net sales in South America decreased approximately 10% compared to the second quarter of 2018 excluding negative currency translation impacts. Funding interruptions in the government subsidized loan program as well as weaker demand in Argentina contributed to the decline. Sales in North America increased approximately 4% excluding the unfavorable impact of currency translation compared to the levels experienced in the second quarter of 2018. Increased sales of high horsepower tractors were partially offset by declines in the sales of protein production equipment. Net sales in our Asia Pacific, Africa segment decreased about 1% in the second quarter of 2019 compared to 2018 excluding the negative impact of currency translation. Lower sales in Australia were mostly offset by higher sales in Africa. Part sales were approximately $384 million for the second quarter of 2019, were up about 4% compared to the same period in 2018 excluding the negative impact of currency. Slide 7 examines AGCO's sales and margin performance. AGCO's adjusted operating margins expanded approximately 150 basis points in the second quarter of 2019 compared to the same period last year. Margins benefited from pricing, increased production, cost management and the timing of our engineering expenses compared to the prior year. Europe, Middle East margins improved over 80 basis points compared to the second quarter of 2018 resulting from the benefit of pricing higher production, the timing of varying expenses as well as ongoing cost control efforts. North America operating margins expanded 200 basis points in the second quarter compared to the second quarter of 2018. Increased sales, improved net pricing and a positive sales mix contributed to the higher margin. Third quarter margins in North America will be negatively impacted by the costs associated with launching new products, lower production due to our reduced market forecast as well as a weaker product mix. In South America, the second quarter operating results improved compared to the same period in 2018, as we continue to make progress in the transition of our product offerings to Tier 3 technology in that market. Our South America business is expected to be profitable in the second half of 2019. In our Asia Pacific, Africa segment operating margins expanded over 160 basis points on a relatively flat sales due to primarily expense control efforts. Slide 8 details AGCO's grain storage and protein production equipment sales by region and by product. Sales in this product group increased about 4% excluding negative currency impacts in the first half of 2019 compared to 2018. Globally, grain and seed equipment grew over 12% on a constant currency basis with the growth achieved in the Europe, Middle East, Asia Pacific, Africa and South American regions. Protein production sales decreased approximately 7% on a constant currency basis, the largest declines in the Asia Pacific, Africa and North America regions. The global trends toward growing population and increased protein consumption should make our GSI business an attractive source of profitable growth for AGCO in future years. Slide 9 looks at AGCO's investments in both capital expenditures and research and development. We continue to make strategic investments to refresh and expand our product lines, upgrade our system capabilities and improve productivity in our factories. We intend to increase the level of engineering expense in 2019 on a constant currency basis to execute our product development plans and meet new emissions requirements in both Brazil and Europe. Our spending plan is needed to maintain our competitiveness and to support the long-term growth of our business. Our 2019 capital expenditure plan reflects investments to support our product plans and is projected to be higher in 2019 and 2018. Slide 10 addresses AGCO's free cash flow, which represents cash used in operating activities less capital expenditures. Our seasonal requirements for working capital are greater in the first half of the year and thereby resulted in negative free cash flow in both the first half of 2018 and '19. For the full year of 2019, we are targeting another year of strong free cash flow. At the end of June 2019, our North America dealer months supply on a trailing 12-month basis was improved for tractors, equipment and combines. Losses on sales receivables associated with our receivable financing facilities, which were included in other expense net were approximately $11 million during the second quarter 2019 compared to $9.7 million in the same period of 2018. As we focus on return for shareholders, we expect cash distribution to continue as an important component of our long-term capital allocation plan. Over the past six years, we've [Technical Difficulty] share repurchases of nearly $1.3 billion which had the effect of reducing our share count by approximately 25%. During the first six months of 2019, we completed $70 million of share repurchases and expect cash generation to fund additional share repurchases through the balance of the year. Our updated 2019 outlook for three major regional markets is captured on Slide 12, and reflects lower forecast for both North and South America. In North America 2019 industry unit tractor sales are now expected to be flat compared to 2018 levels. Our prior forecast calls in the North American market to be up 0% to 5%. Late planting and slow crop development as well as ongoing trade concerns are weighing on sales of large equipment. Low horsepower equipment sales which tend to be tied to more general economics and then more resilient and are now expected to be up modestly in 2019. Warm, dry conditions across much of Western Europe are expected to pressure yields and contribute to softer demand in the back half of 2019. The dairying livestock fundamentals continue to be supportive and overall demand in Western Europe is expected to remain healthy. Based on these assumptions, we expect full year 2019 industry sales to be flat in Western Europe compared to 2018. Harvest in the first half of 2019 in both Brazil and Argentina are improved from 2018 levels. However, interruptions in the government supported finance program in Brazil and ongoing macro economic issues in Argentina limited sales in those markets during the first half of 2019. We now expect South American industry retail sales to be flat in 2019 versus 2018 versus our prior forecast of 0% to 5%. Slide 13 highlights the assumptions underlying our 2019 outlook. The priority for 2019 continues to be managing our costs and continuing invest in our products and in business improvement opportunities. Our market forecast assumes relatively stable industry demand across all regions. Our plan includes market share improvement with price increases of 2% to 2.5% on a consolidated basis. At current exchange rates, we expect currency translation to negatively impact sales by about 3.5%. In 2019, engineering expense is expected to be up approximately $10 million on a constant currency basis compared to 2018. Operating margins are expected to improve by approximately 100 basis points due to the benefit of our pricing, productivity and purchasing initiatives with margin expansion projected across all regions. Below the operating income line, we are targeting an effective tax rate of 31% to 32% in interest and other expense to be down about $10 million in 2019 after excluding the debt extinguishment costs incurred in 2018. Slide 14 lists our view of selected 2019 financial goals. We are projecting 2019 sales to be in the $9.4 billion range. We expect growth in operating margins to be improved from 2018. Based on these assumptions we're targeting 2019 earnings per share of approximately $5.10. We expect capital expenditures to be up approximately $25 million compared to 2018 levels and free cash flow to be in the $275 million to $300 million range. For the third quarter, our results will reflect the sales and margin impacts of lowering our market forecast for both North and South America as well as an effective tax rate that is expected to be approximately 40%. As a result, third quarter earnings per share projected to be in the $0.70 to $0.80 range. That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, we're ready for the questions.