Andrew H. Beck
Analyst · Nicole DeBlase
Thank you, Martin, and good morning to everyone. I will start with a look at AGCO's regional net sales performance for the third quarter and first 9 months of 2013, which are outlined on Slide 6. Currency translation had a negative impact of approximately 1.8% on AGCO's consolidated net sales in the third quarter of 2013 compared to the same period in 2012. The Europe/Africa/Middle East segment reported a decline in net sales of approximately 2%, excluding the positive impact of currency translation during the third quarter of 2013 compared to the third quarter of 2012. Sales declines in Central and Eastern Europe and the United Kingdom were offset by growth in Germany and France, largely enabled by Fendt's improved production capabilities. North America sales grew 9% during the third quarter of 2013 compared to the same period in 2012. Sales increases experienced in the professional producer segment generated growth in grain storage equipment, sprayers and midrange and high horsepower tractors. AGCO's third quarter 2013 net sales in South America grew about 35% from comparable 2012 levels, excluding negative currency translation impacts. Higher sales in Brazil and Argentina accounted for most of the increase. Attractive commodity prices, favorable financing rates and a weaker real all contributed to the strong demand in Brazil. Net sales in our Asia Pacific segment increased approximately 11% in the third quarter of 2013 compared to 2012, excluding the impact of currency translation. Growth in China, Australia and New Zealand produced most of the increase. Parts sales were $370 million for the third quarter of 2013, an increase of approximately 11% compared to the same period in 2012, excluding the impact of currency. For the first 9 months of 2013, parts sales were up or just over $1 billion, up approximately 4% compared to the same period in 2012, excluding the impact of currency. Slide 7 details AGCO's sales and margin performance. Gross margins improved over 100 basis points in the third quarter of 2013 compared to the prior-year period. Margins benefited from higher sales and production volume, limited material cost inflation, pricing and cost-reduction initiatives. Operating margins expanded nearly 200 basis points in the third quarter of 2013 compared to 2012, due to higher gross margin and better leverage on our SG&A expenses. Europe/Africa/Middle East operating margins were up over 130 basis points in the third quarter of 2013 from the same period in 2012, due primarily to higher production and sales levels, partially offset by higher engineering expenses. Our fourth quarter margins will also benefit from favorable cost comparisons to the Fendt assembly plant start-up costs incurred in the back half of 2012, but will be partially offset by lower production end levels in other European facilities. North America's operating margins exceeded 11% in the third quarter of 2013 and were nearly 190 basis points higher as compared to the third quarter of 2012 due to increased sales, a favorable sales mix, particularly related to high-margin GSI sales and cost control initiatives. In South America region, operating margins improved 300 basis points in the third quarter of 2013. Higher sales volumes and cost-reduction benefits resulted in the margin improvement. Margins in the Asia Pacific region were down due to increased market development expenses in China. Slide 8 details GSI sales by region and by project -- product. GSI sales were up about 9% in the third quarter and year-to-date sales were flat compared to the same period in 2012. U.S. grain storage sales improved in the third quarter compared to last year's drought-impacted results and accounted for most of GSI's third quarter increase. We are now forecasting GSI sales to be up between 5% and 7% for the full year of 2013 compared to 2012. Longer term, the global trends of population growth and changing diets are generating demand for additional grain storage and protein production capacity. The countercyclical nature of the protein production sector supports more stable earnings in GSI. Slide 9 looks at our depreciation and capital expenditure trends. Our 2013 capital expenditures will remain elevated as we continue to work to meet Tier 4 emissions requirements, refresh and expand our product line, upgrade our system capabilities, improve our factory productivity and establish assembly capabilities in China. Slide 10 addresses AGCO's free cash flow, which represents cash from operating activities less capital expenditures. We managed our seasonal working capital requirements very closely this year and are in a good position to generate strong cash flow in the fourth quarter. In terms of inventory metrics, at the end of September 2013, our North America dealer month supply on a trailing 12-month basis was in the 5 to 6 months range for tractors, combine and hay equipment. Other working capital details are as follows: losses on sales receivables associated with our receivable financing facilities, which is included in other expense net, were approximately $6.7 million during the third quarter of 2013 compared to $5.8 million in the same period of 2012. As we have discussed throughout the year, we expect an increase in inventory at year end as we build the necessary transition stock ahead of Tier 4 Final introductions during 2014. AGCO's strong cash generation will allow us to invest in our plants and new products and continue returning cash to shareholders through our dividend and share repurchase program. Our 2013 regional market outlook is captured on Slide 11. We are anticipating relatively flat demand on a global basis. In North America, farmers' strong financial positions and the expectation of near-record farm income in 2013 are expected to support healthy retail demand, especially in the professional farming sector, through the end of the year. Strong farm fundamentals are expected to continue in Brazil in 2013 and the attractive terms for the government financing programs are in place through the end of the year are expected to stimulate growth in excess of 15% compared to the same levels in -- compared to the levels in 2012. We are expecting softer demand in Western Europe, with weakness in the U.K. and Central and Eastern Europe. Solid demand across France and Germany is expected to mitigate some of the weakness in other areas. We are continuing to expect 2013 demand in Western Europe market to be down between 0% and 5% compared to 2012. Slide 12 highlights the assumptions underlying our 2013 outlook. Our forecast assumes price increases of approximately 2% on a consolidated basis, and we expect the impact of currency translation to be relatively neutral. In 2013, expenditures on new product development and Tier 4 emissions requirements will cause an increase in engineering expenses of approximately 15% or about $50 million. We also look for new products in our productivity and purchasing initiatives to drive improved gross margins. Our SG&A expense will include expenses associated with manufacturing start-up and market support costs, amounting to about $10 million for our Chinese operations. Lastly, our effective tax rate forecast is approximately 34% for the full year of 2013. Slide 13 lists our views of selected 2013 financial goals. We are projecting 2013 sales in the range from $10.8 billion to $11 billion. We expect improved gross margins and operating margins from 2012 levels after significant investments in product development, market development and start-up costs associated with our manufacturing projects. We continue to target EPS of approximately $6 per share for the full year of 2013. We expect increased capital expenditures to be in the $400 million to $425 million range and free cash flow in the $200 million to $250 million, after funding the expected increase in capital expenditures and higher inventory levels associated with Tier 4 product transition. With that, operator, we're now ready to take questions. Operator, we're ready for questions now.