Earnings Labs

American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG)

Q1 2012 Earnings Call· Tue, May 1, 2012

$130.23

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Tina and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the American Financial Group 2012 first quarter earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions). Thank you. Ms. Weidner, you may begin your conference.

Diane Weidner

Management

Good morning and welcome to American Financial Group’s first quarter 2012 earnings results conference call. I’m joined this morning by Carl Lindner III, and Craig Lindner, Co-CEOs of American Financial Group. If you’re viewing a webcast from our website, you can follow along with the slide presentation if you like. Certain statements made during this call are not historical facts and may be considered forward-looking statements and are based on estimates, assumptions, and projections, which management believes are reasonable, but by their nature are subject to risks and uncertainties. The factors which could cause actual results and/or financial conditions to differ materially from those suggested by such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, those discussed or identified from time to time in AFG’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission; including the annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. We do not promise to update such forward-looking statements to reflect actual results or changes in assumptions or other factors that could affect these statements. Core net operating earnings is a non-GAAP financial measure, which sets aside significant items that are generally not considered to be part of ongoing operations such as net realized gains or losses on investments; effects of certain accounting changes; discontinued operations; significant asbestos and environmental charges; and certain non-recurring items. AFG believes this non-GAAP measure to be a useful tool for analysts and investors in analyzing ongoing operating trends, and will be discussed for various periods during this call. A reconciliation of net earnings attributable to shareholders to core net operating earnings is included in our earnings release. Now, I’m pleased to turn the call over to Carl Lindner III, to discuss our results.

Carl Lindner III

Management

Good morning, and thank you, for joining us. We released our 2012 first quarter results yesterday afternoon and are pleased with another quarter of strong operating earnings in our Specialty Property and Casualty and Annuity and Supplemental businesses. I am assuming that the participants on today's call reviewed our earnings release and the supplemental materials posted on our website. I am going to review a few highlights and focus today's discussion on key issues. I will also briefly discuss our outlook for 2012. Let's start by looking at our first quarter results summarized on slide three and four of the webcast. Prior year financials result have been adjusted to reflect the impact of the adoption of a new FASB standard regarding the accounting for costs associated with acquiring insurance contracts. This resulted in a reduction in AFG’s December 31, 2011 shareholders equity of approximately a $134 million which is about 3%. Net earnings were a $1.14 per share for the quarter including realized gains of $0.28 per share primarily from the sale of a portion of our remaining interest in Verisk Analytics. Core net operating earnings for the quarter were $85 million or $0.86 per share compared to the prior year's result of $91 million or $0.85 per share. Our profit in our Annuity and Supplemental Group was more than offset by lower underwriting profit in our Specialty Property and Casualty operations and lower Property and Casualty investment income. Both periods reflect the affect of share repurchases. Our annualized core operating return on equity was approximately 9%. We have continued to deploy our excess capital in ways to enhance shareholder value. We repurchased a 1.5 million shares of our common stock during the first quarter at an average price of $37.91 per share or approximately 95% at March 31, 2012…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Matthew Rohrmann, KBW

Matthew Rohrmann - KBW

Analyst

First question, Carl, is it fair to say that with winter wheat and obviously soy has done well year-to-date that the crop results perhaps are a little bit better than you expected so far in to 2012?

Carl Lindner III

Management

I think the winter wheat crop seems to turn out pretty well. That said, our company takes a little bit more defensive position and thus and you know quite a bit of our business succeeded in the government bucket.

Matthew Rohrmann - KBW

Analyst

Okay, got you.

Carl Lindner III

Management

Overall, I would say it’s (inaudible) on for our crop business, you know, mainly crop planting conditions seem to be in pretty good shape right now. Doesn’t seem like there is any particularly troublesome issues right now.

Matthew Rohrmann - KBW

Analyst

Okay great. And then, just any color that you can provide on the -- maybe slightly slower growth there or margins on the transportation business?

Carl Lindner III

Management

I think that in the great American transportation business, you know we are focusing on improving profitability there, in our (inaudible) growth. So we’re emphasizing rate over premium growth. And the National Interstate management team can probably address that question better than me, but I think also they want to continue to show their combined ratio that they have there overtime and they are focused also on profitability along with something that makes sense for this year.

Matthew Rohrmann - KBW

Analyst

And then, just last quick numbers question, the catastrophe losses were small in the quarter; was that $4 million in Property & Transportation or is it elsewhere?

Carl Lindner III

Management

I think the biggest part of that is in Property & Transportation, regarding losses…

Diane Weidner

Management

There were also some losses in our Specialty Financial segment related to our financial institutions book, but again, obviously very volatile.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Ryan Byrnes, Macquarie.

Ryan Byrnes - Macquarie

Analyst

Just a quick question on the large deductible workers’ comp book, what kind of rate increases are you guys seeing in that book, and I guess obviously how is that compared to loss cost trends? And maybe just to focus on which states you guys are seeing these increases already in the new business? Thanks.

Carl Lindner III

Management

Yeah, on the strategic comps business, again our large deductible business just kind of business; a part of business outside of California; we are getting a double digit rate increases there and that is and yeah new business and renewal business there. That maybe one of places where it seems like we are getting greater pricing on new business versus renewals.

Ryan Byrnes - Macquarie

Analyst

And you have loss cost trends; how is that I guess book variance; I am trying to get a view into how margins are looking?

Carl Lindner III

Management

I think on the strategic upside, probably a lower frequency and some higher severity in 2010 and ‘11 and we can play along with what we are seeing on the ability to get price increase. It is an area of opportunity for us. We are getting price increase and we are able to grow our business and make sense there.

Ryan Byrnes - Macquarie

Analyst

And then just quickly, obviously you guys also mentioned that your E&S book is growing right now, what kind of, are there any kind of lines in particularly you are seeing or are you seeing attractive submissions right now?

Carl Lindner III

Management

Yeah, probably a couple of different things. We are seeing a lot of New York and other contracting liability type of business. We are also, because it seems like the market and some where the accounts are required very large primary liability where it seems to be a little bit less capacity than there was and the ability to write some buffers in terms of layers that maybe weren't there before.

Ryan Byrnes - Macquarie

Analyst

And then quickly, and just last one from me is that, I guess obviously your capital management obviously continued in the first quarter and just trying to figure out what type of market conditions would, I guess caused you to slow your capital management program, say rates continue to be up 5% to 6% or 7%, what causes you guys to slowdown?

Carl Lindner III

Management

For repurchase activity?

Ryan Byrnes - Macquarie

Analyst

Yes, exactly for repurchase activity, yes?

Carl Lindner III

Management

While, you know with an excess of $750 million of excess capital, we got plenty of flexibility to do plenty of share repurchase to do, small to medium size acquisitions and flexibility to keep now the drive rate down. So I think the bigger factor is, you know where is our stock trading out, as long as our stock is trading over book value and we’re getting price increases in our property and casualty book and saying growing earnings in our annuity business, we think it’s a smart thing to continue to repurchase a fairly significant chuck or our stocks particularly if its sales below book.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from Jay Cohen, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch.

Jay Cohen - Bank of America-Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Most of my questions were actually already asked, but one other question and that is in the Specialty and Casualty business can you talk about claims trend outside of workers comp; what are you seeing in some of those lines of business?

Carl Lindner III

Management

Surprisingly overall both of our business loss cost trends appeared to be pretty benign. In Specialty and Casualty Group in particular, I think I mentioned strategic comp; I think in our P&L probably some lower frequency higher severity maybe tied to our Canadian book. California workers comp, pretty stable, pretty benign on the frequency in Indemnity side; Mid-Continent, we’re specialized in home builders liability; frequency and severity there is probably lower, just because of the soft economy, particularly as it impacts home builders in that. But overall, our business, pretty benign; no common increase in frequency or severity across our business.

Jay Cohen - Bank of America-Merrill Lynch

Analyst

It doesn’t seem like on the surety side either with all the economic pressure, especially in the construction business that you have seen any pressure there; is that fair assessment?

Diane Weidner

Management

Yeah, Jay, it’s Diane; I would say that that is a fair assessment. We really haven’t seen any historical trends in that line.

Operator

Operator

And there are no further questions at this time. Are there any closing remarks?

Diane Weidner

Management

I would like to thank you all for joining us this morning and we look forward to talking with you again when we report our second quarter results. Thank you and have a great day.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today’s American Financial Group 2012 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. You may now disconnect.