AEXAY (AEXAY) Q3 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Atos Group Q3 2026 Performance Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Philippe Salle, Group Chairman and CEO. Please go ahead.

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everybody. So let's go directly to the presentation. I will start with the first two sections, and then I will hand over to Jacques-François. So we start on Page 6. The key message for this quarter, first, continued sequential performance improvement. So I will come back, of course, on the revenue and the fact that, as I said the last quarter, we are sequentially, let's say, stable and of course, easing the comps versus 2025. We confirm also the full year target. Second, Genesis, we said already in the first quarter that Genesis was, in fact, not over, but it was done in terms of the EUR 650 million savings that we have sketched during the CMD last year. We continue Genesis will be closed, in fact, by the end of the year. And we will reach far above the target of [ 6 ] Commercial activity always lower in Q3, and I will come back on this. And then we continue, of course, accelerating in our strategic pillars and remember that we have 3 of them. When I go on the key numbers on Page 7, so in terms of revenue, so EUR 1.642 billion at current perimeter. So it's minus 2.4%. So we are close to breakeven, and we are very happy, I would say, on this results. Order entry is EUR 1 billion, 62%. So order entry is always lower, in fact, in Q3 just because it's the summer season. And remember also that we have two events for this order entry. The first one is that it is linked to the renewal of large contracts. 50% of our revenues is managed services. And in fact, usually managed services, it's 5- to 7-year contracts, usually large ones. But when we have large contracts like CNA, for example, it's a booking roughly of EUR 300 million, EUR 400 million. So of course, it pushed very hard, I would say, on the book-to-bill on the order entry. But in Q3, in fact, we didn't have any renewals. And that's why that, in fact the order entry was more on not managed services [ than ] managed services. So I would say the performance is quite okay because it means that 62%, we are above the 50% of managed services. Remember also that there are some contracts where we don't book any order entry, like, for example, EDF or like, for example, the contract we have won in the U.K. with the police because it's what we call framework agreement, which means that we have the license, to play. And of course, we're going to play, probably, for example, in the U.K., we estimate it's EUR 40 million, EUR 50 million per year, in fact, starting already, in fact, this year and next year, but we don't put any order entry for this contract. And that's why I would say, of course, it's lower the book-to-bill. Net change in cash. This one also is a very good news, EUR 44 million. It's the first time since the Genesis. And in fact, it's the first time when you look at back at the company in '22, '21. And we have EUR 50 million of restructuring. Remember, we put EUR 120 million of restructuring in H1. So we have EUR 170 million. We estimate that the total for this year will be close to EUR 200 million. So it means roughly EUR 30 million more to come in Q4. And then the liquidity, EUR 966 million. Remember that in the liquidity we don't put the TriZetto escrow. So it means that the cash is roughly above the EUR 1.2 billion, and we are quite confident that we will finish between EUR 1.3 billion and EUR 1.4 billion at the end of the year. So if we go on Page 8, you can see that roughly we have stabilized, and I said that already since Q1, the revenues. In fact, we don't lose any large contracts in the course of '26. Unfortunately, we lose -- we lost some of them in the U.S. in 2025. And that's why the comps, of course, is a little bit tough in some countries like in the U.S. But of course, it's easing. And in fact, it's going to ease even more in Q4 because in the U.S., we will be probably growing in the course of Q4. So as you can see, minus 11% in the first quarter, roughly minus 6% in the second quarter, we are now at minus 2%. And we estimate that in Q4, we will be between 0% and minus 2%. If we go on Genesis on the next page, so Page 9. So we are -- as I said, we are above the target. We will finish probably close to EUR 800 million by the end of the year. In fact, I have accelerated Genesis just because, of course, the top line was not there in the course of '26. And as you can see, we have done several initiatives in terms on growth offering and simplification that, of course, will continue. Just one probably comment, the billability rate, remember that the goal was roughly at 85%. We are now close to 84%. And we will touch probably the 85% in the first half of '27 because we are finishing, let's say, the restructuring next year in Northern Europe and France. If we go on Page 10, this is the workforce evolution. We are roughly now flat, let's say, quarter-on-quarter. There are not, I would say, big -- will be, I would say, not big change going forward. You can see also that the attrition is around 10%, probably too low for a company like us. But at least, I would say, it's good for us, of course, to keep our, let's say, staff in this moment where we do a lot of change in the company. Now if I go on the Page 11 and the book-to-bill. So as I say, it's 62%. As I say also, remember, it's low, but there is no renewals in terms of managed services. So it's normal, I would say, that we have this lower book-to-bill. We estimate that the book-to-bill in Q4 will be above 100. It's always, let's say, higher in the last quarter of this year. The qualified pipeline also is very strong and continues to be strong, roughly at EUR 1.7 billion, I would say, increase in the course of H1. And also the renewal rate also has increased around 93%. After that, you can see some major wins. I talked about EDF. So EDF in the book-to-bill is [ 0 ]. Metropolitan Police also is [ 0 ]. It's very close to [ 0 ]. Also some framework agreements we had with HMRC that is also big. And again, this one on the book-to-bill is [ 0 ] . And then you can see other contract wins that we have, for example, in Barcelona with the European space operator. For the strategic pillars, remember that it's agentic, digital sovereignty and cybersecurity. So in Agentic AI, in fact, we're going to go over agentic. We're going to have a big release in terms of our AI, let's say, development. It will be Monday next week. We call -- it's a suite, in fact, that we're going to launch. It is called Atos Genesis Intelligence, and you will have, of course, more details in the course of next week. But including the AGI, we call -- I would say, there is a platform called Atos Codex that is very powerful and that we have started to implement in France and in the U.K. Digital sovereignty, just for example, we have also partnered more, I would say, with SAP to be a cloud partner. In cybersecurity, we have launched, let's say, different offers. Just for information on [ YAM ] [indiscernible] and access management, Eviden as a solution, and we are the only European, I would say, player that has a solution that is really sovereign and secured that we can push against most of the U.S., let's say, most of the competition, which is, in fact, in the U.S. If you look at on Page 13, some delivery, some contracts that we have won and also that we are delivering right now. I'm not going to review all of them, but you have some examples in Germany, in China, in Europe and of course, in France [indiscernible]. Now, so on Page 14, on internal adoption of Agentic AI, we are also, of course, pushing, as you can imagine, Agentic AI very strongly also in the company. And I will come back, in fact, at the end of Feb with our full year results to show you exactly what we do. In fact, Agentic AI for us, it's two things. It's agentify our back office, so agentic on our own back office and agentify also our own delivery. This, of course, will be more, let's say, I will explain more what we are doing in, I would say, in the next year in February with the full year results. In terms of cyber, you can see on Page 15, I put some, let's say, what we are doing in terms of identity, attack, et cetera. We are also working on the quantum response we're going to have in the future. But there is a lot of things that is done right now. And remember, it's a mix between Eviden software and hardware and of course, Atos services. We estimate that overall, the cyber revenues is close probably to EUR 1 billion, so it's 15% of our revenues for the company. Let's go now on the operational performance country by country. So first, on Page 17, you can see the evolution of the revenues. So we start with Q3 last year that we have published. Then you have the divestiture that we have done. Remember that it was Bull and also [ LatAm ] and a little bit of Northern Europe. You have the foreign exchange. And then you have, I would say, the Q3 '25 at current perimeter change, which is EUR 1,683 million. And then as I say, now we at EUR 1,642 million. So we are very close, let's say, to last year. We are just missing EUR 40 million, which is roughly 2.4% of organic decrease. Now let's look at the performance country by country. You have here, I will say, the view by geo. And remember that with Atos, we have 6 geos and also the view of Eviden. As you can see, we are now growing, in fact, in international markets. It's the first time. We continue the growth with U.K., and we are also growing -- continue also the growth with Eviden. France is close to the breakeven probably in Q4. And then you have Germany, North America and BNN. Let's look country by country. So Germany on Page 19, so minus 6%. We still have some ramp downs of clients, in fact, that we have lost in '24 and in '25 and also some clients, like, for example, Deutsche Bank that has decided, I would say, to internalize some of the managed services that we have with Atos. So it's not a loss versus the competition. It's just, I would say, some clients have decided to do internally what they used to do, I would say, externally. So minus 6%. And I would say we are quite stable in terms of revenue when you look at quarter-by-quarter. When you look at the U.S. on Page 20, I think the good news is that we are also stable. We do roughly $96 million per month, between $95 million and $96 million. We estimate that we will continue to do roughly this in the Q4, probably above. And the good news is that last year, we were exactly at $96 million per month in Q4. So I would say that in Q4, for the U.S., we will probably be at 0 or restart growing as soon as next quarter. So in fact, we lost a big contract in 2025. Remember that we have decided not to renew this contract because of the margin. And of course, the comparison is still tough. And of course, it will ease in Q4. And then we can probably, I would say, then restart growing in the course of the year of '27 for the whole year. In France, on Page 21, as I say, we are close to breakeven. We have signed a lot of contracts also in France. So we see that the commercial development is in good shape. And EDF is a very important contract that we have signed. It doesn't give any revenues, in fact, of course, this year and next year, but we estimate that it will start to give some revenues in the course of '28. Now in U.K. and Ireland on Page 22. In fact, the organic growth is a little bit, let's say, we don't grow at 30% in this country. We are roughly at EUR 300 million plus per quarter. Last year, in fact, it was a very low quarter, and that's why the comparison, I think, for me is a little bit fake. And in fact, when you look at Q4, they have done roughly at EUR 306 million, I think last year, we will be probably around this EUR 300 million. So in fact, we will be close to 0. So it's just for me an effect between Q3 and Q4 and the fact that the base impact was very low in '25. But sequentially, we are around EUR 300 million plus. It depends on the quarter. And of course, all the contracts that we have signed will yield, in fact, more revenue in the course of next year. In terms of international market, remember also that we lose also a big client in the banking sector. And we lose it, in fact, not because of Atos, but because also like in Germany, they have decided to put the managed services internally. So the comparison was tough, in fact, in '25, and it was tough also for the first 2 quarters of '26. It's not the case anymore. So I think it's great. And now we are seeing some growth in different areas. In fact, we are seeing in Spain, also in Eastern Europe and of course, in Middle East and Asia. Last, BeLux. So Benelux, Northern Europe. This one is a little bit more tricky because also we have exited some contracts last year. It was -- it is a weak, for me, Q3, and I definitely think that it will be much better in the course of Q4. So probably the comparison is a little bit tough for Q3, but I definitely think that we will do better in the coming quarters. Eviden. So Eviden, in fact, when you look at the numbers, it seems that it is decreasing. But in fact, with the split of bill, the comparison, in fact, is not very fair. And the underlying organic growth is 5%. So this is an SBU that is growing at [ 5 ] now, and I definitely think that double digit is -- should be the growth going forward. Remember that in Eviden also, Middle East has a big impact on us, especially on Vision AI, and it's several dozens of millions for us. So we hope, I would say, to recover on this part. I don't know if it will be in '26 or '27, but we know that there is a lot of potential in this region for our Vision AI business. We will see if we can sign some contracts. There is a big one, in fact, that is still waiting, let's say, a signature from one client. We'll see if it's in Q4 this year or it will be in the course of '27. But Eviden, of course, as you know, with defense, with cyber, there is a lot of, let's say, wind in favorable for us. And I think that it will -- we will, in fact, continue to accelerate in the coming years. With this, I hand over to Jacques-François for the financial results. Jacques-François de Prest: Thank you, Philippe, and good morning, everyone. So as a reminder, the publication of our quarterly liquidity position is part of the regular reporting requirements, which have been defined in the December '24 credit documentation. All the certificates are available on our website. So the key message for this quarter is that we have reached an important milestone with positive cash generation for the first time since the launch of Genesis. The net change in cash, as you can see in the slide, was positive and estimated at approximately plus EUR 44 million in the quarter, including a significant restructuring cash impact of around EUR 50 million. This reflects the progress made on our operational performance and cash discipline and reinforces our confidence that we are all well on track to achieve our full year 2026 guidance. This figure excludes several other items that ultimately impact the liquidity position. The exchange rate fluctuation, which amounted to approximately minus EUR 6 million; M&A for minus EUR 5 million; change in unsolicited payments received in advance of the invoice payment due date during the quarter for minus EUR 10 million; cash movements relating to other financial assets and liabilities for minus EUR 9 million, net fees associated with the successful refinancing of the first lien tranche of the December '24 debt for minus EUR 9 million. And lastly, the factoring. The factoring program has improved liquidity by EUR 14 million during the quarter. Remember that this program provides a secure and recurring source of funding at an all-in attractive cost of 4.25% plus EURIBOR 3 months. It is committed for a duration of 3 years on a nonrecourse basis, and it is expected to continue to ramp up in the fourth quarter and beyond. Note that due to the pace of the program ramp-up, we did not buy back debt on the market in Q3, and we started to buy some more in the early days of Q4 before our close period started. Taking all these elements together, our liquidity position increased by EUR 18 million in the quarter compared to our post debt repayment position to an estimated EUR 966 million as of September 30. This level remains well above the EUR 650 million minimum liquidity requirement under our December '24 credit documentation. So overall, we turned cash positive in the quarter while continuing to fund the restructuring for the group. We strengthened our liquidity position, and we are starting to benefit from the progressive deployment of our trade receivable factoring program. That concludes my intervention. I hand over back to Philippe.

Thank you. So remember, Q3, Q1, of course, we don't provide a lot of figures. So that's why it's very simple. I will finish this presentation on Page 29 on the financial ambition of 2026. And in fact, it's the same as the last quarter and in fact, the same as the first quarter also. So we still see an organic growth. It's not really a growth, it's a decrease at minus 5%, and it's around minus 5%. As you can see, with Q3 at minus 2%, we are in a good way to achieve, of course, this result. Operating margin around 7%, so we don't change this and a positive net change in cash. So in fact, the cash flow in H1 was minus EUR 120 million. We have done roughly EUR 44 million in Q3. So it means we will do EUR 76 million or above in Q4. Remember that right now, the position of cash is EUR 1.2 billion plus, plus the free cash flow of EUR 76 million, it's EUR 1.3 billion. And probably we have a client in advance payment that we will receive also in Q4. It's still low right now at EUR 100 million. It was roughly EUR 270 million at the end of 2025. So it's possible that we finish probably between EUR 1.3 billion and EUR 1.4 billion, probably touching the EUR 1.4 billion with, I would say, clients in advance. And in fact, that's exactly what we have said during the refinancing in May. We have been cautious, of course, at the beginning of July, but we will have a very decent position of cash at the end of the year. With this, I hand over to you, operator, and we can take, of course, questions going forward.

[Operator Instructions] We will now take our first question from the line of Frederic Boulan from Bank of America.

Two questions, please. Maybe one for Philippe and one for Jacques-François. So firstly, Philippe, if you can spend a bit more time on the overall demand and competitive environment, I mean, we're seeing steady revenue improvements. Book-to-bill was low, but you explained not reflecting a number of public contracts. So it would be good to understand a bit more demand, competition, pricing. And secondly, Jacques-François, around the refinancing side of things. If you can explain a little bit where you see the main opportunities, the decision framework on opportunities considering the current credit conditions?

Yes. Thank you, Frederic. So on the first one, I think that the market is still healthy. And the position of Atos, let's say, the decrease of the turnover revenues, it's because of Atos for me, it's not because of the market. And I would say, I just want to remind that, of course, the events of 2024 is still alive, unfortunately, for some of our clients. It's easing. And I say, I think in an interview that this year is better than last year, but it's going to be less better than next year. I definitely think that the confidence, the trust that the clients are showing to us is building up. and I'm very happy. Remember also that we lost a lot of contracts in the U.S. that I definitely think we can probably win back probably in '28, '29 because some of the contracts is 4, 5 years. It depends on the length of the contract. But we see now the clients coming back and having, let's say, confidence and understanding, I would say that Atos is back. The fact that we are also cash flow positive, I think it's a very strong signal for our clients. So I'm very happy also to -- and of course, I will be vocal on this one with our key clients. So I would say the environment is okay. Of course, there is a two-way of environment, and I'm sure that my competition is doing probably telling the same thing, the U.S. and Europe. U.S., where we see more and more AI development. And we're going to show at the end of February launch probably of different initiatives in AI in the U.S. I cannot tell you that much right now, but be patient, it will come. Where we see, of course, that the impact, let's say, of Agentic is coming, let's say, more live in our bidding. If you bid without an Agentic component, you're out of the market today. The difficulties for some of the contracts we see is that some of my competition are putting crazy numbers in year 3, 4 or 5 of the contracts because it's a bet right now. I definitely think that nobody has a clear picture of the impact of Agentic on our delivery. We will probably have a better view in the coming months because, of course, we do a lot of things internally. But let's say, the competition is quite, let's say, unrealistic sometimes on the gains that we can do. It could be for me some black contracts, and that's why for some of the accounts, I don't want to take this bet. Atos has not the financial strength to, of course, and win some contracts because of that. But in fact, in some contracts, like, for example, in CNA, we are able to show initiatives of AI and of course, the fact that we can share after that or give part of it or most part of it to the customers. So let's say, in the U.S., Agentic is more and more live, and we need, of course, to put this component in our bidding process. In Europe, it's less the case for the moment. I definitely think that we are lagging versus the U.S. For me, as I say, Agentic is more a marathon. It's probably a 3 to 5 years, probably, probably more, 3 to 7 years, I don't know, before it comes live. Remember also that in Europe, we have also social laws that are more rigid. So of course, when you put identification in your process and you cannot get rid of some of your stuff, it's more difficult, of course, to see some examples. But we see some appetite. So in fact, we have a discussion. And with what we're going to launch on Monday, we have already some initiatives in the U.K. and in France, where the -- I think we have the suite we're going to launch on Monday, and you will see that is unique in Europe. We have also in this suite, what we call a platform Atos Codex. The name, in fact, with Atos for several years and before the Codex of one of the LLMs in the U.S. And with this platform, in fact, we can do a lot of things for the clients, and we are starting, in fact, to see some results for large clients that we are pushing right now. So overall, I would say the market is there. There is no -- of course, there is a lot of, let's say, economic uncertainties in the world, in Europe and of course, in France, as you can imagine. But I would say for the IT market, we don't see an IT market that is down. I think that there is -- it's still a healthy market. And we are still, I would say, a small player in this market with a lot of opportunities in front of us. Jacques-François de Prest: Taking over the second question, Fred, regarding the refinancing opportunities, decision framework and our feeling on the market conditions. So I would like to say our ambition and our view of the direction of travel regarding capital structure is totally unchanged. Whilst we have ample cash and ample time because the first maturity is in December 2030. This is true. This is important for us to refi when there will be a good market condition, a good market window. I think I will not -- you will not learn anything from my statement, which is that the market is currently not open, far from it and certainly not for the high-yield bonds, which is most likely an important tool for us in the future. So maybe to add to that, so meaning that despite the company working on that to be ready, we don't think that there is any window happening in the very near future. However, ambition remains in the next 12 to 18 months to go and refi on the market at reasonable conditions. Remember that the first lien refinancing in May was extremely successful. That has allowed us to reduce the overall cost of interest to reduce by 200-plus basis points from an average of roughly 10% to an average of roughly 8%. We have taken out the tranche, which is the most expensive, that was 13%, 9 plus 4. Now we remain with [ 2 ] which are cheaper. That's 5 plus 4 makes 9% for the [ first and a half ] and 1 plus 4 for the second lien. So there is no urgency. There is no urgency. Where there is maybe a sense -- it's not urgency, but let's say, it's an important priority for me is to ramp up and to start really a serious ramp-up of the factory. I'm aware the negotiations, the implementation, the signature of the country to start the ramp-up has been so far slow, but I'm confident that in the near month this will ramp up much faster. So that's to answer your question, Fred.

We will now take the next question from the line of Sam Morton from Invesco.

Two questions, please, for Jacques-François. One of them is on the factoring program. Can you talk about any teething problems that you experienced in Q3 and whether they're likely to continue in Q4? Because I do think that EUR 14 million was quite a way below what we could have expected after the strong start that you made in June. And then secondly, so I look at a EUR 44 million improvement in net cash in Q3 and the guide is for a further increase in Q4. Yet, management decided to do no bond repurchases in Q3 and only EUR 7 million so far in Q4. And so I'm just trying to understand what does that tell us about what management thinks the debt reduction -- where does that reduction sit within management's priorities? Jacques-François de Prest: Thank you, Sam, that you allow me to clarify and give more color on this program, which indeed I just mentioned is an important priority. So you're correct, you're reading between the lines. In Q3, we experienced some difficulties with the ramp-up of the factoring program. I cannot dwell too much into the details, but I can tell you that these problems are away and that I do not expect the similar problems in Q4 at all. Quite on the contrary, we estimate the ramp-up with further geographies and the geography already signed will happen in the coming weeks. That's the first point regarding the slow ramp-up in Q3. The second point is regarding the bond buyback. I think we have clearly signaled that is our intention to buy more bonds on the open market. And I repeat that today again, that is still our intention. Whilst we have signaled that, we have also made it very clear that there is a relationship with the factoring ramp-up and our source of liquidity and our source of cash to proceed with this bond buyback. So very logically, if the ramp-up of factoring has been very slow, this is the single reason for which we have bought little bonds on the open market. However, of course, as soon as I have more cash from this factoring program, we will buy more bonds. As to Q4...

François, sorry to cut back. If you're so confident that the teething problems on the factoring program are temporary, I don't understand why you wouldn't be more active in the secondary market. Jacques-François de Prest: So let me clarify. A couple of things. One is that we are subject to close period, whether this is for -- I mean, the company has some limitations. So for example, our close period for Q3 has started on the 5th or 7th of October. So we have been able to buy a little bit then when we had some -- a little bit of ramp-up of the factoring program. So meaning that in the last 3 weeks, we have not been allowed, let's say, to buy bonds on the open market simply because that's regulation just before we publish the results, we cannot operate on the open market. Now I am confident. I said exactly the same thing at the Q2 earnings call, which is that whilst I'm confident, and we -- you have heard Philippe and myself, we repeat our guidance for the full year net change in cash. Even if you are confident in terms of, how can I say, spending the money and having the money leave the house, well, I need first to have it before I do that. I think this is a good common sense, prudent way of behaving. So bear with us a little bit. The bond buyback will start again as soon as we have some factoring ramp-up as I'm confident it will be.

We will now take the next question from the line of Nicolas David from ODDO BHF. [Operator Instructions]

So the first one is on the outlook. I mean your 2026 guidance implies organic growth of around, let's say, flat in Q4. So how should we think about 2027 from there? I mean, does that exit rate give you more confidence in returning to positive growth next year? And more broadly, looking at the next few quarters, what are the key moving parts we should keep in mind? What do you see as the main upside and downside risk to the growth? The second one is on Eviden, I mean, on the timing and phasing effect, which penalized a bit of Q3. Could you give us an idea of the reversal we should expect in Q4? I mean, should we expect a similar positive impact in Q4, potentially pushing growth towards the 15%, 20% range? And the last one is on France, on the public sector. Do you expect the activity to stabilize or potentially deteriorate ahead of the presidential election? You mentioned France potentially close to breakeven in Q4, but any color on which sector will drive that improvement will be helpful.

So on the -- yes, I would say to reach the minus -- around minus 5%, we need to be better, in fact, than Q3. So it means we need to be between 0% and minus 2%, and that's the goal. Are we going to touch the 0%? It's too soon to say. But of course, it's our goal. Well, let's see. I would say we will have a better view, of course, month after month, we are just at the beginning of October. There are some contracts that we have signed that also are going live in the course of Q4, so we will see. But that's the way we look at it. I would say Q4 will be better than Q3. And of course, with this, we are confident to be around minus 5%. For Eviden, I don't know. Yes, of course, it will be better in Q4. You're right. There is, again, one component is the Vision AI on Eviden because, in fact, the revenues are close to 0 right now because we do a lot in Middle East with this business. So we will see there are some contracts that should start normally in Q4. And of course, that will beef up, of course, the growth versus last year. And then you say, we are looking at double-digit growth for Eviden. I don't know if it will be 15% or 20%, as you say, but at least double digit, and I think it's possible in Q4. For the public sector in France, it's not -- yes, I think we continue, I would say, to do a lot of things in the public sector. We are also pushing, let's say, some cyber contracts also with, I would say, with the public -- some public entities. It's for the last 2 years, in fact, the public sector was roughly flat plus. There is no -- it does not, let's say, be a big push. In fact, there. We are more right now, let's say, active in the private sector than in the public sector. Public sector is big in France. Well, let's say, there is no -- we don't see a lot of growth for the moment, probably in cyber because, as you know, in France, it's a big topic for a lot of public institutions. We have won also a big contract in defense that is not yet public, but it will come. And it is with Atos and this one, not with Eviden. So I would say there is some traction in the public sector, but we estimate that probably the growth will come more from the private sector than the public sector, and that's why we are pushing harder, let's say, on the private sector in France.

We will now take the next question from the line of Laurent Daure from Kepler Cheuvreux.

I have two questions. The first is back on revenues. When I listen to your comments, it seems like -- and that's the opposite of what we've seen for many quarters that a lot of the regions are about to stabilize. Going forward, do you still see some challenges in some regions? Or do you believe entering into 2027, most of them will enter flattish? And then will depend on your bookings later? And the second question is going back to cash. You pointed a EUR 50 million of cash outflow on restructuring in the third quarter. I was wondering going forward in Q4 and next year, what kind of assumption should we take in our model on this specific element?

Yes. So on the second question, as I said, EUR 30 million probably in Q4, the envelope of Genesis will be close to EUR 200 million. Next year, you will have the guidance in February. So please wait. And then, yes, I think that most of the bad news are over. So you're right. In fact, in the U.S., you will see in Q4, we will be 0 plus probably above 0. We will continue to grow in the U.K., International, Eviden, International also. So probably the 2 countries where still some, let's say, more difficult comp will be Northern Europe and Germany, but it's easing also. So yes. And as you know, Northern Europe is not a big geo. So yes, we can say that we enter 2027 in a much better, let's say, position than, of course, '25 and '26. And then, of course, I will give you the guidance of growth for 2027 when we publish the full year results end of February.

Maybe Philippe, should we worry about any potential renewal, big renewals that are soon to come? Or shall we be fine on that specifically?

In fact, in the -- for 2027, there is only one very big renewal in the U.S. But the contract is going to be renewed in September, October. So I don't expect to lose it. But I would say even if I lose it, it's not going to be a big impact in '27, it's going to be an impact in '28. So no, for next year, in fact, there are not also a lot of large renewals in the pipeline right now.

And in Germany, regarding the -- one of the largest customers still, I think, is Siemens. Do -- shall we expect any headwind on that customer for '27?

Yes. you're right. So Siemens, in fact, is 3 Siemens. I remember, we work with Healthineers, Energy and [indiscernible]. So the -- I would say it's 3 different stories. We continue to grow, in fact, with Healthineers and Energy. We signed a lot of contracts with SAP, et cetera. And yes, we continue, let's say, to decline with Siemens AG that is, in fact, has taken the decision to diversify their suppliers, in fact, and it was a decision taken in '23 and '24, and they continue to do that. So yes, Siemens will continue to have a decrease, probably around probably between, let's say, EUR 50 million to EUR 70 million. So that's why I say in Germany, it's going to be -- it's the only geo where there is, let's say, one impact of a large contract that is continuing to decrease.

We will now take the next question from the line of Derric Marcon from Bernstein.

Two questions for me. The first one on the order intake. Can you explain the mechanism that you expect for Q4? So you said book-to-bill above EUR 100 million -- 100%, sorry. But I was wondering if we can have more granularity about what is new, what is renewal, what will be helpful to grow the top line in 2027? Because at the end of the day, the figure we are seeing for 2026 doesn't give us a lot of reassurance about the top line growth scenario that you have for 2027. And my second question is about the -- so the embedded -- as Laurent said, we are all trying to understand what are the embedded negatives that you will have at the beginning of 2027 in terms of growth. So you commented the risk of losing contracts or things like that. But can you also comment the embedded decline coming from price reduction that are already agreed with customers on existing contracts and potentially the impact of [ AI ].

So as I said, be careful on the book-to-bill because it's not a direct unfortunately reading on the growth of next year because we do a lot of framework also agreements where we're going to have a lot of revenues, but you don't see this in the book-to-bill. So I'm not scared about the growth of next year. You can see that sequentially, we are flat. We're going to be above the Q3 revenues in Q4 because Q4 is always bigger, let's say, than Q3. There are not any big renewals again in Q4, but we have a lot of tenders also for new logos where we think we can probably sign. So it's good news for us in the U.S. and also in Europe. And that's why, of course, if we sign this contract, they are EUR 200 million plus. As you can imagine, the book-to-bill, of course, is going to be impacted. So it's difficult for me to give you the answer, but probably the way we calculate the book-to-bill, I don't know if it's different from the competition. But it's not because it's below 100 that we don't grow. So be very careful on this one. And also because also the framework is not in our book-to-bill, and we do a lot of framework contracts. So if you say we finish around minus 5%, let's say, between 0% and minus 2% in Q4 and minus 5% at the yearly, it means normally that we enter the year around minus 2%, in fact. It is mathematical. But in fact, I think it's probably false this one because we have been flat for 4 quarters. So in fact, I think the first quarter was [ 1,640 ]. So it means that, yes, we enter probably in a good position to show some growth in Q1 next year for -- and then probably I can continue, you're right, yes, you say. So there is no price reduction we have in the contracts. In fact, there are -- in some managed services, there are some, let's say, gains of efficiency that we have every year. But I would say there is nothing in particular in '27 versus '26. There is no pattern saying that we accelerate this. AI also, there is nothing in our contracts right now. It's too soon. As I say, in Europe, it's not a topic anyway. It will come, but it will take time. And in the U.S., it's too soon. For CNA, for example, the AI, let's say, savings was in year I think 3. So we are just entering the first year. So there is no impact, in fact, in the course of next year. So I think there is no pressure for us on pricing for next year. We continue, of course, to -- when you operate managed services, let's say, on 5, 6, 7 years, sometimes more, of course, we have efficiency gains. So it means that we manage our costs to, of course, have better margin and give part of the margin to the clients. But I would say this is normal business for us. I don't think -- I don't see, let's say, a pattern saying that there will be a big impact for us in the course of '27.

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the conference back to Philippe Salle for closing remarks.

Okay. Any other questions? No? You can try again, operator. Okay. If there are no other questions...

[Operator Instructions]

So we are back to work. It's not -- the year is not finished, and we still have some work. But I would say we are very confident in terms of revenue, in terms of profitability and cash. I definitely think, in fact, that the Genesis plan was a 2 -- let's say, 2 plan. The first 2 years, '25 and '26 was really, I would say, the restructuring. We are quite over on this one. And then as I said, the focus now is really on the top line. That's why also because we have also reshuffled a lot of the teams and the Head of Industries in the different geos, a lot of CPs and client executive partners. There are a lot of things that we have done in the course of '26. And I'm very confident that we are now putting the seeds, of course, for the rebound in 2027. So on this, I wish you a very good day. We are, of course, at your disposal for any questions. And I think we're going to meet some of you, some investors in the coming -- in fact, today and tomorrow. And I will come back on the full year results end of Feb. And also, I will probably do not a CMD, but a small, let's say, Market Day, just half of the plan, what we have done in 2 years, what are the expectations for '27 and '28 and give you, of course, probably more flavor also on AI because we are doing a lot of things internally, and we definitely think it's going to yield some results, in fact, in our [indiscernible]. Have a good day and talk to you next year. Bye-bye.

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.