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Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM)

Q3 2019 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 24, 2019

$189.23

-4.58%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Emily and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Agnico Eagle Mines Limited Third Quarter 2019 Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Mr. Sean Boyd, you may begin your conference.

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to our third quarter 2019 conference call. This presentation does include forward-looking statements and does use non-GAAP measures and does give production guidance, so there is cautionary language in our slide deck that you can read at your leisure. Talking about the quarter, where we would expect it to be? We expect it to produce record quarterly gold production. We did that. Produced almost 477,000 ounces. We expected to generate free cash flow, based on the fact that production was increasing and our capital spending was declining. We did that. We expected to reach commercial production at Amaruq. We achieved that. What we still need to work on is the ramp-up at Amaruq, we'll talk about that in some more details, had some impact on our guidance for next year, which we've trimmed a bit based on a slower than expected ramp up. We expect it to be in a position to increase the dividend. The dividend is clearly important, given our track record. We'll talk a little bit about our thinking behind that. And one of the things that is possibly overlooked in this release is the fact that we continue to get good exploration results at a number of our properties. So we'll talk a little bit about that. A summary on the exploration side, although it's still early, we do have some encouragement at Canadian Malartic underground, East Gouldie, and needs a lot more drilling and needs a lot more analysis. The structure has been traced over a strike length of about 1,300 meters. I think the fact that this was discovered is really consistent with our expectations of the underground exploration potential of the property when we bought it in 2014 and really consistent with our strategy…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Fahad Tariq from Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Fahad Tariq

Analyst

Hi. Good morning…

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Good morning.

Fahad Tariq

Analyst

Thanks for taking my question. You revised 2020 production guidance down, just a little from 1.95 or to 1.95 million ounces at the midpoint. I believe it was 2 million ounces previously. But the rationale for that was a slower Amaruq ramp up. But I'm wondering if the maintenance that was scheduled for 2020 was moved ahead to this quarter, would that not more than offset the slower ramp up? And it sounds like you're also getting a bit of extra production -- extra quarter production from Creston Mascota, which has been extended to April 2020. I'm just trying to gauge like -- as the 2020 guidance is conservative. And like what's the thinking around, the downward revision. Thanks.

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Well, going back to the shutdown, the advanced part was basically replacing indecipherable. So, had we have done that in Q3, 2020 as it was already planned. We would have likely crushed material ahead of time. And they wouldn't have had effective production. So, I think, the guidance at this stage, it's just ensuring at this stage that the ramp-up rate at the site is in place. And it's mostly related to Amaruq. And slightly to the mining sequence at Meliadine. And it's still in ramp up stage.

Fahad Tariq

Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our next question comes from the line of Mike Parkin from National Bank. Your line is open.

Mike Parkin

Analyst

Thanks guys for taking my questions and congrats on the good quarter.

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Thank you.

Mike Parkin

Analyst

First off, you've got debt coming due next year. So I'm just trying to get a sense from you in terms of how to think about the CapEx guidance for next year. You've already given some pretty good color, that your kind of minimum spend is around $350 million, $400 million. And if you kind of pushed full steam ahead on kind of your whole growth pipeline, it could be maybe as high as $700 million. Is the way of that kind of balancing, is that sort of a -- to ensure that the debt gets covered off, in the, that $300-ish million delta is kind of dependent on the gold price. Is that how we should think of it? Or would you be willing to kind of consider refinancing some of that debt to ensure that the growth portfolio moves ahead as quick as possible?

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Yeah. Those are -- you've laid out all of the considerations. We're currently working through as we finalize our budget and life of mine planning process right now, so, one of the items that would be newer, would be the Meliadine Phase 2. So that's one that we believe will move forward within February. So, that's a strong project. We wouldn't delay that project, because we needed $10 million or $20 or $30 million, during that first part of the year to fully repay the debt, so the gold price will determine where we are in April, after what we would expect to be two very solid quarters of production and cash generation. So, our focus is to pay debt when it becomes due. That's certainly the intention. But the focus is also to optimize the investment opportunities that our current pipeline presents to us.

Mike Parkin

Analyst

Okay. That's perfect. That's kind of what I was thinking. And then, on Meliadine Phase 2, what would be the -- is there any potential to get a little bit color on what that potential spend could look like for next year, or basically refer to the technical report and just advance everything a couple of years?

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Well, at this stage, we've provided some preliminary information on the tour in August. We've clarified our expectations for CapEx for the rest of the year. We're basically in the final stage of studies presently with the pit. So we'll clarify these numbers in the Q1 release.

Mike Parkin

Analyst

Okay.

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Q4 release, sorry.

Mike Parkin

Analyst

And then, on East Gouldie, that certainly looks pretty exciting. What's the plan? Are you still trying to just determine the ultimate envelope of this target? Or are you looking at maybe doing a bit of infill work on that as well?

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Well, at the moment, we have five rigs and the interim priority is to obviously define the size of the zone and initiate some infill drilling, just to bring it to -- a portion of it to ensure resources. So we're just trying to understand the size and the grade and make sure that we are infilling it to better understand what it is.

Mike Parkin

Analyst

And because of the rock units that that’s sitting in, is it potentially softer than what you're milling at Canadian Malartic today?

Sean Boyd

Analyst

No, it's basically the same old rock than we were mining in most of the Canadian Malartic. So all of the western part and the southern part of the main pit of Canadian Malartic, it's the same old rock, just the continuation of the zone that we're seeing in the southern portion of the pit.

Mike Parkin

Analyst

Okay, great. That's it from me. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Carey MacRury from Canaccord Genuity. Your line is open.

Carey MacRury

Analyst

Hi. Good morning, guys. Just a question on Malartic. Just wondering, with the underground moving along, when you'd be in a position to actually sort of make a construction decision on the underground?

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Yes. I'll just start. In our view, it's way too early, and it's actually a good question, because what we have to consider is our existing pipeline, and we would stack up things like Meliadine Phase 2, we would stack up Amaruq underground, we would stack up Goldex as we go deeper, ahead of Canadian Malartic underground. And so, our focus is on taking advantage of those opportunities that we know a lot better and before we get to allocating any significant capital to Canadian Malartic underground. There is a lot of thinking that needs to go into this besides just getting more drill information and understanding it. Because this is the East Gouldie, if it's a mineable deposit, will require a shaft, which is significant capital, significant lead time, how could that ultimately integrate with Odyssey. And Odyssey goes down to about 900 meters. So, it's fairly complex. So it needs a lot of thinking. I think we come at it from the perspective is, we're excited, but it's early, but it's going to take a lot of analysis and thinking and hard work to turn it into reality.

Carey MacRury

Analyst

And is there any concern as the open pit is depleting, not having enough order, sell the mill in the future or how do you think about that?

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Yeah. I think you could -- some could make the case that we should speed up, so that you could have some overlap between the open pit and the underground. But until you really understand that would probably be not the best allocation of capital. We would rather understand it, and we would rather understand it from the perspective of, does it have the potential to be something standalone down the road.

Carey MacRury

Analyst

Okay, great. And then, maybe one more question on the balance sheet. You have the $360 million in debt due next year. But beyond that, I don't think there's anything due until 2022. So, as your free cash flow ramps up, are you considering buying back debt earlier? Or what's your thinking on the balance sheet there?

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Yeah, it's pretty hard to buy that debt back early. It's in the private placement insurance market in the U.S. There's lots of penalties there. So, we'll just wait till it comes due.

Carey MacRury

Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Tanya Jakusconek from Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Yes. Good morning, everybody. Great quarter.

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Good morning.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Wanted to come back on Meliadine, if I could. And just talk a little bit about what is on the critical time path for us to move this two years ahead to 2021. There's obviously having to make adjustments to the mill. And I think when we were on the mine tour; correct me if I'm wrong, I think we were talking about a capital of under $150 million and to put a variety mill in. Is that still what you're thinking?

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Well, we're reviewing the various scope of the sectors unit operation presently. We're refining these costs. And we're also refining the mining cost scenarios at this stage. So, as we move ahead with these, we'll confirm the pricing on a total project cost. But this will move ahead pretty quickly, and it will be phased out towards 2022 production at 6,000 tonnes per day.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay. And so, would most of the spend then occur in 2020 and 2021 whatever that capital will be?

Sean Boyd

Analyst

It would be spent on the mining side in 2020, on the milling side -- in mining side in 2021.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay. And then, what's critical on the path line in terms of permitting? There would be obviously an adjustment to the permits for the mill and what about the open pits and water? This chart.

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Most of these permits are already in place now for the pits, so nothing significant at this stage.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

From the permitting front?

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Correct.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay, perfect. So I'd look forward to getting more on that. And then, maybe just coming back to the Amaruq, the underground scenario, we're looking to get more information on that, I think, with Q4 financials. Do you still see that as coming in both as an underground with an open pit component that we do need both of those to have in terms of keeping that mill felt, it just can't do it on with the underground alone?

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Yeah, that's correct. I think, the -- as we continue the focus on internal opportunities, like Sean has talked about, the underground opportunity is one of them. And we're trying to just get what's the best NPV for the overall site and the underground component, while the pits are in place are certainly a big part of that.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay. And how are you finding the ground conditions underground at Amaruq?

Sean Boyd

Analyst

So far excellent. We haven't had any issues with the developments in a very level we have as we go ahead.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay. And then, maybe my last question for Sean is, with all of this exploration success, and there's a lot that you flagged, do you think you will be able to replace your reserves and resources this year?

Sean Boyd

Analyst

That should be a gee question. But we're still working on that. I think that I would expect to be around flattish from last year. Based on what we see now, there is still work to do, but that's where we're sort of thinking.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay, okay. That's good, great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Steven Butler from GMP Securities. Your line is open.

Steven Butler

Analyst

Good morning, guys. Again great quarter. Congrats, and good morning.

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Thank you.

Steven Butler

Analyst

Hi, Sean. Question again, just to clarify maybe with respect to as we go into the fourth quarter and you'll elaborate more on the CapEx spending over the next couple of years, and thereafter expect in multi-year guidance, I suppose. But for Meliadine, we'll get a CapEx number there for Phase 2. What other projects will we see growth capital likely allocated towards, Sean, in 2021?

Sean Boyd

Analyst

We still have work to do in Finland on the expansion…

Steven Butler

Analyst

Okay.

Sean Boyd

Analyst

…Amaruq underground. It'll certainly be a focus there. So those are the principal growth CapEx.

Steven Butler

Analyst

Right, okay. Yeah, you previously elaborated, do not -- you provided a number for Finland some time ago, I can't remember the CapEx for the mine mill expansion.

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Yeah, I don't have that in front of me.

Steven Butler

Analyst

Yeah. That's fine. Gee, at LaRonde, you had good reserve additions last year at the deeper part of the asset, beneath 3.1 kilometres, and the resources are still. Can you give us a sense of, remind us again how deeper your resource is reaching at LaRonde, and do you think you've done enough drilling this year for additional reserve conversion or maybe just simply replacement as Sean alluded to at least corporately?

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Well, we are currently considering more on the level approach for resources conversion. So, we saw significant conversion last year. We certainly do not expect to see that, I mean, back this year, and we are studying it slowly as we go down in a deposit and we are not expecting to see us replacing what we have been mining this year.

Steven Butler

Analyst

Okay, okay. Sounds fine. Yvon, maybe for you, just -- your experience so far, it's early days at Meliadine. But the cost per tonne, do you expect to see some improvements in that number, or are you kind of where you expect it to be on a unit cost basis?

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

Well, we're not too far presently on the unit cost. The cost of the plant are a little bit higher than we had forecasted at the beginning, mostly because of labour as we're continuing to ramp up. With no further mining costs have been pretty well on track as we continue to get more maturity in the mining side of it, it could be expected that we'll get more opportunities towards cost reduction. So, I think you're correct in that sense. To what extent, time will tell.

Steven Butler

Analyst

Okay. Merci beaucoup. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Anita Soni from CIBC. Your line is open.

Anita Soni

Analyst

Good morning, guys. Congratulations on a good quarter.

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Good morning. Thank you.

Anita Soni

Analyst

And I guess, my question was asked, but I want to get an idea of where you're thinking for next year given the rising gold price reserves. You've done it at a conservative 11-50, what are you thinking for next year? And in terms of your budgets, like how you think about your capital allocation, what gold price do you think you'll be using for next year?

Sean Boyd

Analyst

$1,200.

Anita Soni

Analyst

For reserves, right?

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Yes.

Anita Soni

Analyst

And budgets, any different than the reserve price or...?

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Not really, around the same.

Anita Soni

Analyst

Okay. And then, just in terms of Amaruq. So, it seems like the throughput slowed down in the next couple of -- I mean, obviously you guys have highlighted some of the dewatering issues that you had there. But, how does that play out over the second half of the year? You gave us some guidance into Q4 and Q1, but could you give us a little idea of sort of how that ramps up over the next couple of years?

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Not sure I understand the question, Anita. You’re talking about 2020 next year?

Anita Soni

Analyst

Yes. So you gave -- you said, I think you said 650,000 tonnes and then 620,000 tonnes in each quarter. And I was just wondering if that's about the same pace for the remainder of the year at Amaruq.

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Well, we target to finish the year with certainly be -- I'd like to be in the 90,000 tonnes per day. We're currently at 75,000 tonnes per day. So, ramped up from last point, the 60,000 tonnes per day. So, the target is 90,000 and fully ramping up to 100,000 tonnes per day by the end of next year.

Anita Soni

Analyst

And that's within my strip to your question, but obviously essential to figuring out how you fill the mill. So what's the strip at H1 right now?

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Don't know exactly these number -- probably around 7.

Anita Soni

Analyst

Okay. All right. Thanks. That's it for me.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Ralph Profiti from Eight Capital. Your line is open.

Ralph Profiti

Analyst

Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question.

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Good morning.

Ralph Profiti

Analyst

I just wanted to come back to Meliadine, and get a little bit more specific on the productivity improvements. When you think about Q4 being about 3,660 and the mill seems to be operating around 4,500 even before we get to Phase 2 expansion, just wondering if that's going to even out. Is this just a question in terms of productivity of sort of moving more ore or are we looking at some scope changes?

Sean Boyd

Analyst

No. It's mostly productivity underground. Up to this stage, we've been quite dependent with the sequence itself and getting the pace in the sequence. If you've achieved quite a bit of productivity improvement on those side with base, so they're slowly starting to catch up. So, once that is in place, that's going to be a big benefit. Second point is that the -- I guess we're in the optimization phase now that for the various aspects of the sequencing part. So there is several ideas that are coming up on the drilling side, blasting side, and so on that they will progressively implement that will see us like that step change towards getting us to 3,750. So we're pretty comfortable with that number at this stage.

Ralph Profiti

Analyst

Great. That's it from me. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And there are no further questions at this time. I will turn the call back over to Mr. Boyd for closing remarks.

A - Sean Boyd

Analyst

Thank you, operator, and thank you again everyone for participating in our conference call. Take care.

Operator

Operator

And this does concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.