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Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM)

Q4 2016 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 16, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Carol and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Agnico Eagle fourth quarter results 2016 conference call. [Operator Instructions]. Thank you. Mr. Sean Boyd, you may begin your conference.

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Thank you, operator and good morning, everyone. And thank you for joining our Q4 2016 conference call. Before we begin the presentation, just like to remind everybody that this presentation will include forward-looking statements and there is material in the slide deck that covers that and you can read at your leisure. What we would like to do today is cover the operations in the quarter, but more importantly talk about the future and our plans for investments and improving the quality of our business and trading value for our shareholders. We have positioned ourselves strongly through a strategy of investing in exploration, investing in project development over the last several years that has allowed us now to continue to invest and grow output and grow reserves from the existing asset base in areas where we have had a tremendous amount of success over many, many years. Our history has demonstrated that our strategy of building mining platforms for long term value creation in areas that have excellent mineral potential and areas that have an ability to do business works very well. Our plan is to continue to follow this straightforward relatively simple but effective approach to building value per share. As we look at our quarter and our year and our positioning, our operations continue to perform extremely well. They are exceeding targets and they are generating significant cash flow. Our reserves are growing and that's largely due to a commitment to exploration. Not just at our existing mines were we're seeing those deposits grow, but also in the project pipeline where we're also seeing deposits grow that will form future important parts of our mine plan as we move forward. Our production profile will see Us producing 2 million ounces in 2020, with an ability to grow those…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. And your first question today comes from David Haughton from CIBC. Please go ahead.

David Haughton

Analyst

My questions are really focused in on Meliadine. We have not seen numbers for a while. You provided quite a bit last night. Just wondering if you could give us a bit of an explanation of the CapEx profile of the initial $900 million? I saw that you've expectation in 2017 of $360 million. Wonder what to expect beyond that?

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

A breakdown in CapEx, this is Yvon here. The breakdown on CapEx is surfaces for structure typically around $550 million. It's not an exact number. Underground portion about a little more over $200 million and the rest is basically owner's cost.

David Haughton

Analyst

I didn't ask the question all that clearly. I was looking for a split between 2017, 2018, 2019 et cetera and each of these successive years.

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

The CapEx for 2017 is $358 million and the CapEx for 2016 is slightly over that, close to $400 million and the rest will be spent in 2019.

David Haughton

Analyst

Okay. You have got the open pit starting up in year four, what CapEx should we be thinking about for that?

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

Mostly stripping and mostly with the phase through expansion of the mill. I do not have the exact number, but probably in the neighborhood of about $200 million.

David Haughton

Analyst

Okay. In the expected production of those 5.3 million ounces, what would you expect the split to be between open pit and underground?

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

It will probably most likely be somewhere, 35%, 80% from underground and then the rest from the pits.

David Haughton

Analyst

Okay. Final one on this topic, just looking for a little bit more detail. Are you able to provide expectations of your mining costs for open pit underground and what your milling costs might be on a unit basis per ton?

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

These costs were provided in the press release.

David Haughton

Analyst

I must have missed it with the several hundred pages I was reading last night.

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

The total costs were provided, but the detailed cost were not. And if you want more details, talk to Brian.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Mike Parkin from Desjardins. Please go ahead.

Mike Parkin

Analyst

Just a follow-up on the Meliadine. The CapEx to develop it at $900 million, it seems a little higher than what we were maybe expecting given the last budget, mind you I guess the internal scopes obviously made it a bit bigger. Could you give an explanation of what has changed from the last stale numbers I will admit, but where you came from that number to the number that you've got out there last night plus what you've spent your to date?

Sean Boyd

Analyst

We were always forecasting in that $1 billion area, so the really isn't much difference from what our expectations were. And we would point out, that is the same for Amaruq which we said somewhere above $300 million. So there really isn't too much different than what we have been talking about for the last year or so.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Stephen Walker from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Stephen Walker

Analyst

I've got a number of questions. First of all, LaRonde, you talked a little bit about it earlier Sean. With the new explorations discovering a high-grade material that has been identified, could you give me a sense of when you could incorporate that in a mine plan? What is the infrastructure like, the decline down into that region and, as I said, a potential timing to see that material go through the plant?

Sean Boyd

Analyst

It's still early. And as we have said, we're interesting enough working on those studies below 3.1 kilometers. So the timing is actually pretty good to get some sense of what is materializing on the western side of that deposit. So I think Yvon going to provide some update on the infrastructure and then Alain will provide a sense of the exploration and what we're seeing in the rock.

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

We have done scoping studies basically up till 2016. 2017 will be focused on completing the exploration program. Towards the end of 2017 and early 2018, we will come back with more clarity on study precision. And basically we will provide updates at that time with the typical development timing for all of this or production timing for all of this is we've been thinking about 7 or 8 years roughly to put into production.

Alain Blackburn

Analyst

This is Alain speaking. Maybe I can give you more color about the deposit answer. When you're looking at the long section, you can see two legs. And the first leg to the Eastern part, on the right side, the original deposit is over 3 kilometers long. And is [indiscernible] sulfide [indiscernible] high-grade gold that's a unique situation. You can see the high grade in the Bousquet camp and Aronde camp, but what we discovered when we drilled below the 3 kilometers that is a new matching sulfide that was recognized in the past but the people thought it was the same deposit. Now what we're seeing is the second center that opened the area that [indiscernible] is open to the west and down deep. And when looking at the gold rate and the base metallic rate is a unique situation that we did not see half on the type of deposit. And see 28 gram, 14 gram, 1.3% copper, about 1% copper, 3% to 4% in zinc. I cannot see a lot of deposit like that in the world, but when looking that type of grade you have to follow hard on the next drill hole that we drill to the west and see what happens about the size.

Stephen Walker

Analyst

Great, thank you for that, Alain and Yvon. Maybe change in track a little bit, Tim Haldane, if you're available. First of all, I'd like to congratulate you on your contribution to the southern business and the hard work and that you put into that region and the success you have had. Could you talk a little bit about Al Barqueno? I think it looks you've got the land tied up that you need. You've got some more complications with respect to different mineralogy types and types of mineralization. Can you talk a little bit conceptually what you think the timing could be on development and what you are looking at there with the plant are combination of plant and heap leach?

Sean Boyd

Analyst

We're just having Guy will answer that.

Guy Gosselin

Analyst

Basically, as we speak as you saw in the presentation you know we have been stepping outside of the main deposit area, getting access to more land by securing some more surface right. And we're seeing some pretty good higher grade number in the Olmeca area, as you can see with the grade we got out of the Socorro vein was above 2 gram which is way higher. We have advancing at the same time the study on what type of eventual processing could be put in place by running more metallurgical tests. So we have been this year and we're taking a more conservative approach on the recovery for [indiscernible] weight assumption. But as you saw the outcome is that the grade that we came out with is significantly higher than last year. Slight increase in the overall amount of ounces, but significant increase in the average grade. And we're now going to be conserving the iron grade nature and some copper and some portion of deposit and silver we're going to be looking at other options, maybe heap leach is not the only option that we should look at. So we continue to get access to more ground, we're testing additional targets and we're advancing in our understanding of the eventual conceptual development of the project.

Operator

Operator

John Tumazos from John Tumazos Very Independent Research. Please go ahead.

John Tumazos

Analyst

When and roughly how much of Amasruq do you think you'll put into proven and probable reserves? Is that 2017, 2018 or 2019 thing? When will more of Meliadine come into proven and probable reserves?

Alain Blackburn

Analyst

John, it's Alain. Talk about Amaruq, as you know, we have to transfer the rest of the resin we need to get the study in hand. And we're working on the study and now what we have in hand is the indicated vessels at 2.1 million ounces on the open pit. Based on what we're doing with the result, in fact, we're designing in pit as well. And for underground, we'll designing-- scoping as well. We're more closer to the design one we show our reserve on the excavation and probably the 2.1 million answers open pit that you saw in the press release will be probably 90%, 95% will be moved to the reserve. If you take that number. But we continue to drill as well and we saw an opportunity on a well to drill to the west. We have a chance probably to add another 200,000 ounces based on the result. That shows you around probably, say around 2 million ounces reserve one day.

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Meliadine?

Alain Blackburn

Analyst

Meliadine, as you know we have altered the ridge 10.3 million ounces, 3.3 is the reserve. And continue to drill and fill and we bring the 5 million ounces or more probably in the next couple or three years.

John Tumazos

Analyst

If I could ask one more. What is the difference in the rate of return at Meliadine between the $0.75 C dollar and C dollar you use in your economic studies? The Canadian dollar has been consistently a little bit weak.

Sean Boyd

Analyst

There's not much difference in if we actually look at the Canadian dollar gold price we're using, so we're using a CAD1.25 exchange rate which gives us a CAD1,500 Canadian gold price. The exchange rate right now is about CAD1.30 or so, so there's a little bit of cushion in there. It makes a couple percentage points difference on the small move, so maybe 2 percentage points difference. So it is not that significant between what we've used and what the current number is in the market.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Stephen Butler from JMP Securities. Please go ahead.

Stephen Butler

Analyst

Question for you on Meliadine, in terms of the updated study obviously the big change, guys, was the higher level of the minable resource. What other optimizations did you apply to the study versus the feasibility study from last year or 2015?

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

I think there are a few steps. I think the advancing higher grade into the mining plan was one. We've bumped up the production rate in the early years on the underground production. We have basically optimized scope of phase 1 construction, try to minimize the amount of quality in the original infrastructure because we're going to be operating going into phase 2. Some of the phase 2 spending was maybe a bit stripped down in phase 1. Then basically the rest is all around the construction strategy. Mainly optimizing the schedule, trying to bring our costs down.

Stephen Butler

Analyst

Okay. Next question, guys, was just on Amaruq. Obviously it is - the project remains open as you said, Sean and look forward to more results over time, perhaps Western Whale Tail. The question about the V Zone, does the V Zone need a fair bit more drilling before it can convert itself into an open pit mine plan as well?

Guy Gosselin

Analyst

Hello, it's Guy here. Yes, it needs a more drilling. We have already undertook last year a little bit of tighter spacing drilling in the fifth, so that is basically what is going to be our focus in the first half of 2017 as well. So we're expecting that most of the open pit portion of the V Zone will be having the adequate drill spacing to eventually get classified into indicated. So as we speak as you know, there is 0.5 million ounces of infer in V Zone and 0.25 million ounces still infer in Whale Tail and this is what we're focusing on to add those into the opportunity to get a better picture of the entire open pit component of the project.

Stephen Butler

Analyst

Right. Then, Guy, maybe for your others. The inferred grade at midyear late 2016 I guess was around 6 grams in the open pit and then it - now it's fallen to 3.88 grams, respecting that that is a fair bit of dilution and maybe cut-off grade. Can you maybe quantify the level of dilution that you have applied in the resource and the impact of the cutoff grade on the assumed head grade? Thanks.

Guy Gosselin

Analyst

Basically, the resources was used to be all infer, both open pit and underground, with an average of 6, but the open pit portion of it was about 5.4. So by adding through applying or let's say back-end approach and mining per meter in the pit, we've been adding some of course internal dilution plus approximately 15% of external dilution which brings the diluted grade and the open pit as well, they are at 3.9.

Stephen Butler

Analyst

So the internal and external dilution was bigger than 15% combined?

Guy Gosselin

Analyst

Yes, basically as you know, we have been taking it back-end approach to try to incorporate what is going to be the real output of the pit, what we're going to be able to mine plus adding 0.75 meter of dilution on both sides of the ore zone which totals or average 14% dilution for [indiscernible].

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Tony Lesiak from Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.

Tony Lesiak

Analyst

Could you discuss the underground potential at Amaruq? The grades appear supportive.

Guy Gosselin

Analyst

So that is of course something we're going to be looking at. It is still open. So as I mentioned previously, we're going to focus our energy in the beginning of 2017 into enensing and increasing the amount of unsees in the pit, but we continue to chase the down [indiscernible] extension of the deposit. We saw interesting sign last year of additional fold nose or folding in the system at depth which can continue to build up, but it is - so we're currently considering to do some directional drilling and focus on those [indiscernible] area of the downtown extension. So it is still open and we're going to put some energy on it, but we also would like at the same time to continue to focus on adding some more open pitable near surface phase to add to that underground component.

Tony Lesiak

Analyst

Is this a concurrent option or is this more for mine life extension in your opinion?

Guy Gosselin

Analyst

It would to be concurrent with some adding that. Because by the time we mine the pit, we know that based on our experience at Meliadine we'll need a couple of years with some [indiscernible] which we're going to be as well taking decision to get underground get closer from the deposit, do some infield drilling. So it will come later down the road compared to the pit.

Tony Lesiak

Analyst

Okay. I'm trying to reconcile the 165,000 ounce production guidance for Meadowbank in 2018. It appears you've got enough reserves already for at least another full year of production in that year.

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

That is correct. We're still trying to deal with the gap between the production at Meadowbank and Amaruq. And presently, we're seeing some opportunities that we're going to be looking at adding on our current April layfa mine and we will keep you posted as to the information becomes available.

Tony Lesiak

Analyst

What is the difficulty in accessing those additional reserves in 2018?

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

No specific difficulty, it's more a question of sequencing at this stage.

Tony Lesiak

Analyst

Okay. Maybe moving back to Amaruq. Can you give a sense of the strip ratio there that you assumed and maybe mining and trucking costs?

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

Well strip ratio was quite high, it's over 10%. And then, what is the question on the truck side?

Tony Lesiak

Analyst

Trucking costs and mining costs.

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

Trucking costs in the studies are around $11 per ton.

Tony Lesiak

Analyst

And mining?

Guy Gosselin

Analyst

We have not published these numbers. We just put it in the total package. If you want more details talk to Brian.

Tony Lesiak

Analyst

Okay. I guess we could assume Meadowbank is a good proxy?

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

Say that again.

Tony Lesiak

Analyst

Would Meadowbank be a good proxy?

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

The costs will certainly be a little bit higher at Amaruq than they are overall at Meadowbank.

Tony Lesiak

Analyst

Okay. Finally on Meliadine, I did not catch it. But did you publish an IRR at 1,200?

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

No we did not.

Sean Boyd

Analyst

One of the challenges there is we have a 43-101 that is filed and because our internal study incorporated some resource, we're not really supposed to be putting out an IRR. Once there is a study, I will refile based on the reserves. But it exceeds our 15% hurdle rate.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Don MacLean from Paradigm Capital. Please go ahead.

Don MacLean

Analyst

Could we get a bit of a sense of the tax situation for Meliadine, what the existing pool is? And when it might become taxable if we're using today's type prices or the prices you were assuming?

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Can we get back to you on that Don? We want to look into the actual pool for that specific asset.

Don MacLean

Analyst

Okay. That is fine. And my other question was pretty much along the lines of Tony's about Amaruq. But basically just giving us a sense of what the opportunity and what is involved with from an exploration, but also cost perspective to extend Amaruq's life beyond 2024. That looks like it is a pretty high value-add stage.

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

I think the focus for this year will be to go underground with the portal towards the end of the year at Amaruq and then initiate development. Once the development is initiated, it is roughly 3 to 4 years towards production. Guy will continue with his team to focus on surface pit exploration and then we will integrate those into life of mine extension as we go through the exploration program and basically through the permitting program. So as this evolves, as the expiration program evolves, we will update like any other life of mine extension at the site.

Guy Gosselin

Analyst

On top of that, one of the low hanging fruit is the in pit and we currently have another 0.75 million ounces of infer resources that by adding drilling will continue to enhance the amount of indicated resources. We see as well, a [indiscernible] in the air surface to maybe expand or extend the deposit that will tell us where. So those are low hanging fruit that will be working on in 2017.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Your next question comes from [indiscernible] from Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

I think that's me with Scotiabank. Thank you. I do have a question, Guy, for you. If I can come back to Amaruq so that I understand completely. The fact that you only used 2 million ounces out of the 4.2 million, some of it obviously was underground so you did not include that in your resource for your what you tabled last night. But is the remaining open pit that you did not use because you did not have enough tighter drill spacing and if you were to do that, because it's about 900,000 ounces or so, if you were to fill that in you could bring that into that envelope?

Alain Blackburn

Analyst

Tanya, I will answer, it's Alain. Not it's okay, Guy can answer, I can answer too. We have a lot of guys around the table here. As you know, we have 2.1 million ounces as indicated, but we have also in for open pits around 163,000 ounces that would drill and fill as well. And the chance to bring to indicate that one day. And what I explained in another question before, we drilled on the western part of oil pit that we can have on the surface that we have [indiscernible] to 200,000 ounces to help the Whale Tail pit. Said that, the V Zone is not finished to drill to the east. We can extend V Zone to the east, closer to the surface we have to know, we will continue to drill. After that is going underground for V Zone and a well date. It is a unique situation that we have. We brought a barge last year as a boat, in fact, on the lake to drill deeper hole and to see the extension of Whale Tail. We will [indiscernible] to drill deeper as well for this year.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

The 2 million ounces was arbitrary cutoff that you felt that you had enough with your tighter trill spacing.

Alain Blackburn

Analyst

Yes.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. Sean, maybe for you. I know you answered the internal rate of return at Meliadine, but would it be safe to assume that for Amaruq it would be a greater 15% at 1,200?

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Yes it would, it be north of 20%.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

That's good. And that's based on the 2 million ounces?

Sean Boyd

Analyst

That is right.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, that's good. Well thank you very much for the clarification and both of you for answering.

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Steve Parsons from National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.

Steve Parsons

Analyst

Actually I wouldn't mind shifting gears a little bit to Malartic. It looks like the guidance at that operation is up slightly over the old guidance. Do these production rates noted, do they include Barnett?

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

Yes they include Barnett, but I think in the early years, the guidance was going up because we've modified the mining sequence to access higher grade in the Malartic pit first. That's improved the economics in the next few years.

Steve Parsons

Analyst

Okay. And when does Barnett contribute more meaningfully?

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

Probably 2019 onwards.

Steve Parsons

Analyst

Okay. Could you remind me just how the grade there compares to the main pit and what the strip ratio of it looks like?

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

Strip ratios are quite similar on the life of mine basis. Grade is 3% to 4% higher I believe.

Steve Parsons

Analyst

Maybe back to Barqueno for a bit. Just want to dig in a little bit on the discovery there with the Montero vein - is it the Montero vein? So the kilogram per ton silver over 60 meters, could you walk through on the geology there and what is going on and perhaps how that could be different than some of the other veins you're seeing at Barqueno?

Guy Gosselin

Analyst

It's Guy here. Basically, we have been starting to investigate that area as of early last year, so quickly discovering first of all the Soccorro vein which came out with the Soccorro itself came out with the resources of above 2.5 grams. And by extending our exploration work around stripe, we ended up getting some broader originally medium-grade silver but by walking our way towards the west along that same structural feature, getting that bonanza type grade silver. So it just means for that type of jurvical sitting that we're at a certain depth which is more favorable for gold rich, higher-grade, silver rich mineralization. But no, it is early days for that Mostero vein, but it is wide open to the West and it could lead us towards some gold rich portion as well either potentially lower than where we see the silver number. With the progress seeing that area, so we ended up that we do not know yet how big that Mostero vein is and we're going to be doing typical 80 meter to 100 meter spacing step out. By the end of 2017, we will going to have a much better idea of the extent of that new mineralized system. There's three other parallel structural features like that Mostero and Soccorro vein and the entire land package, there is a lot of those structural feature that will locally blossom and will evolve into that type of 100,000 to 0.25 million ounces flub of mineralization.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions in queue at this time. I will turn the call over to Mr. Boyd for concluding comments.

Sean Boyd

Analyst

Thank you, operator and thank you, everyone, for attending. If you have more questions on that, please reach out to us through IR or we will hope to see you over the next few weeks as we get out on the road. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.