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Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 29, 2015

$189.23

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day and welcome to the Agnico Eagle Mines Limited’s Third Quarter 2015 Conference Call. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Sean Boyd, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, Mr. Boyd.

Sean Boyd

Management

Thank you, operator, and good morning everyone and please take note that the conference call will contain some forward-looking statements. We’ll start with the highlights of the quarter another good solid operating performance essentially across the board getting good contribution not only on the production side, but also on the cost side. We saw particularly strong performance coming under the Abitibi operations which grow record at quarterly goal production and low costs. We saw two new production record set at Canadian Malartic our cash costs in the quarter at Canadian market came in at $544 ounce. So on the back of a very strong quarter we have updated our guidance for 2015. Our production guidance is gone up 50,000 ounces as we said largely on the back of the four mines in the Abitibi offset by the Meadowbank line were the inclusion of the Vault Pit and the extension of the Vault Pit. So change the mining sequence and lower mining grade. So I’ll told allowing us to increase the guidance on production and also lower the guidance on unit costs we are looking at cash costs are about $600 as guidance for 2015 and all at sustaining costs of $850 ounce. We continue to be very active on the exploration front in fact our exploration spend doubled in the quarter versus the previous year’s quarter. The main focus of the drilling that continues to be in Mexico at Barqueno and we will talk about that when we get to the Southern business side, but also in Nunavut at Amaruq we are drilling was focused on Whale Tail essentially where we were focusing in the area between Mammoth one and Whale Tail and the drilling is indicated that Whale Tail and Mammoth there is now a single mineralize system that…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Okay, we do have a first question from Mike Parkin. Please go ahead.

Michael Parkin

Analyst

Hi, Sean and guys. I just had a question on the Mexican operations, I noticed on our charts during the presentation also shows cost per tonne picking up quarter-over-quarter anything explaining that seems to kind of an annual thing on some of the assets. But I was just wondering if you had comments on that.

Tim Haldane

Analyst

Yes, it’s Tim here. One of our comments normally don’t pay a lot of attention to mine site costs per tonne at Pinos Altos because that’s a multi-process, multi-mine type operation and so it’s underground mine, open pit mine, mill, heap leach, variable strip ratios. So it’s going to be noisy, it’s going to move around at La India and Creston Mascota I think you can probably attribute some of the movement in the mine site cost per tonne to mine productivity, which usually slows down a little bit during the raining season.

Michael Parkin

Analyst

All right, thanks, guys. That’s it from me.

Sean Boyd

Management

Next question, operator.

Operator

Operator

Yes, the next question will come from John Tumazos. Please go ahead.

John Tumazos

Analyst

Congratulations on the record output and all the progress. At Kittila, in the new zones are the metallurgy is the same sulfur and carbon contents. Do you think the ores would process at the same rates in existing treatment facilities? The reserve life already is 20 years or more go to watch and increments for the next year expansions there?

Sean Boyd

Management

Yes, metallurgy is the same and what we really try to determine is the extent of the zone and proximity of the zone to the existing underground workings including the ramp that’s moving from the main zone area out to the Rimpi area and that’s an operation that's running at about 4,000 tons a day. The plant can probably do 20% more than that. But at this point we are probably maxed out on the mining rate, but at this zone, materializes given its proximity to the main zone then there is certainly an opportunity for roughly the same amount of development to access more tons and hopefully increase the mining rate. So that’s the opportunity that’s why we introduced the second drill that will start before the end of the year in the ramp and drill that area more aggressively.

John Tumazos

Analyst

Thank you, if I can ask a different question. In Meliadine what’s the target for resource conversions. Should we expect reserves to go up 10%, 20%, 50% obviously there is a lot of 7 million ounces of resource is there?

Sean Boyd

Management

Yes, we haven’t really been focused on conversion drilling at Meliadine, it’s the budget was largely focused on the underground ramp access to the deposits. So we shouldn’t see any change in the classification of the resource reserve for the February update?

John Tumazos

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We will now take the following question from Patrick Chidley. Please go ahead.

Patrick Chidley

Analyst

Yes, hi, everybody. Just a question on the Amaruq and just between the two zones, the Whale Tail and the Mammoth Lake that one hole that appears to be pretty significant to join up the zones. Have you got any more drilling there and what’s the plan to the next few months to be able to infill further?

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

This is Yvon speaking. We fill the gap between Mammoth I and Whale Tail, and from now we see drill holes that they show the concentrate there between Mammoth 1 and Whale Tail, but well think all the sub state to be sure that we can have some economic envelope between the two zones. This is early to conclude to about that, but it’s looking good for now.

Patrick Chidley

Analyst

Okay, so the widths look pretty similar.

Sean Boyd

Management

It could be similar from now what we saw.

Patrick Chidley

Analyst

Okay. And you highlighted some stuff in the V zone so I’m wondering is that in the current resource or is that outside of the current resource?

Sean Boyd

Management

For now what we did when we compare with - we calculate 100,000 ounces on V and we start the program last year when we discover Whale Tail and this year we complete the program on the Whale Tail ad before the program is up we move two of its rigs on V zone. And what we saw is that completely just around the zone and we saw three lenses dipping the south, V1, V2 and V3 and what you saw on the table is more a V2 and what we think again to facilitate about the size. We will know the size next year whenever we start the program in winter.

Patrick Chidley

Analyst

Right, when do you kind of startup drilling again?

Sean Boyd

Management

We started in October 13, we bring the guys in January and probably mid-February the program will restart next year.

Patrick Chidley

Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

We will now take the following question from David Haughton. Please go ahead.

David Haughton

Analyst

Good morning Sean and team, thank you for the update. Still on Amaruq, just having look at the Whale Tail to Mammoth could you envisaged that as a single pit?

David Smith

Analyst

It could be a single pit, but what you saw on the table on the V zone, now we focused on V zone because it is looking very close to the surface and it could be three zones if this fells on have certain continuity, but again we have continued to receive all the subject between Mammoth 1 and Whale Tail. It is hard to conclude right now, because we don’t have the supplement and we’ll conclude more in December it had something between Mammoth 1 and Whale Tail.

David Haughton

Analyst

Okay. And also looking at the long section that you provided in relation to that, this is to suggest that there is a lot more potential for the underground and what we previously envisaged?

David Smith

Analyst

You are right. When you are looking - we know last year that we have some holding on the deposits, the zone dipping in south and we are looking the trend from west to east and pointing to east we can see the zone is increasing in thickness and is completely holding in the east and it’s something that we have to focus next year for underground complement or the feasibility study.

David Haughton

Analyst

Okay. And Sean had mentioned in the commentary that you are - have got receipt of the permit for the road and that construction would take place in 2016. What sort of capital should we be thinking about for the road?

Sean Boyd

Management

I just spoke on that, we expect to get the permit before the end of 2016 and we don’t expect an issue. We have a significant planning commission confirm or road confirms the linings and we’ve always set the capital expectations there sort of in the $90 million to $100 million range for the road.

David Haughton

Analyst

Yes, that may have been my mistake not hearing properly I don’t know.

Sean Boyd

Management

Yes, I think I probably spoke about that.

David Haughton

Analyst

All right, great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We will now take the following question from Andrew Quail. Please go ahead.

Andrew Quail

Analyst

Good morning, gentlemen. And congratulation on a very solid quarter. Just switching gears away from Amaruq, the production at Malartic was very solid and you are moving very close to that the design rates at the operation. I'm just wondering if you can give us a sense of with the work that you're doing on improving performance and productivity. Do you think that you will be able to hit 55,000 tonnes within the next say 12 months or what is your thought process in that regard?

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

This is Yvon here. Now I think the performance of the sites have been very good I think most of the performance in the last quarter been relating to getting better pressure availability and feeding the pressure in a constant basis and having inventory being constant as this shown at that we can provide more tonnes on a continuous basis. As far as the first question we are going to be able advance 55,000 earlier that won't happen until 2017 that we get critical permits on the crushing side. So that what you saw this year will be a very similar picture connection.

Andrew Quail

Analyst

All right. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

We’ll now take the following question from Stephen Walker. Please go ahead.

Stephen Walker

Analyst

Thank you, operator. Good morning Sean the question on capital allocation if you would, if we assume that the organic projects Goldex, Kittila, Altos, Creston gets funded out of cash flow or operating cash flow and the new capital projects. Can you talk a little bit about envisage the funding for Amaruq, Meliadine, El Barqueno, particularly the funding of Meliadine and what alternatives could be considered. In the context of the current smart gold price for $1200 gold price are you could see the financing and funding for not so much worried about Amaruq your near-term but I thinking more about Meliadine and El Barqueno?

Sean Boyd

Management

Yes, there is really no change and so the updates we had over the last few weeks I think we’ve been actively in fact quite busy over the last several weeks I gathering information and continue to gather information on all of the opportunities we have and some of that information gathering is still in the drilling pace leading to updated resources or initial resources as well as updating some study. So I think were still proceeding down on the timeline that we’ve been consistently talking about with our shareholders as to sort of early next year having the opportunity to pull all this together. So no change there but you know we’re looking at a C$1500 book price. And I think is Dave Smith pointed out back in 2011 I think the highest price we average in Canadian dollars over a quarter 16/50 Canadian. So this is still a very low price where in an area where we have three quarters two-thirds of our business. So we have to look at it in context and I think from Nunavut our experience tells us as this will be one of our key operating platforms over the number of years. So what we’re trying to see how can fit it in generate the return that we see neat there and I should say the Meliadine return go up from once in the 43-101as we corporate resource in there. But what we are trying to do is put a growth plan in place that introduce excess of risk into our business. And that’s working hard are doing and that means we have to pace things out and we are still in that space gather information to make those determination over the next few months.

Stephen Walker

Analyst

Great thank you very much Sean.

Sean Boyd

Management

Okay.

Operator

Operator

We will now take the following question from Greg Barnes. Please go ahead.

Steven Butler

Analyst

Thank you, Steve this actually kind of jump on to my question. But Sean you mentioned none of that eventually being similar to the Abitibi in terms of scale. I know you're obviously gathering information on this but what kind of timeframe you are looking this is a 5-year initiative 10-year what do you think?

Sean Boyd

Management

I think minimum five, we have to think long-term Amaruq is would be a big part of that obviously and it still very early. Our focused areas to identify second source of open pit ore we feel that gives the best chance to utilize the full availability of the Meadowbank plan, which would certainly drive the economics. And that will be I think the biggest single swing factor on the ultimate production coming out of the Meadowbank facility and that will be driven largely by grade. So it's still early, but as we look at the Abitibi, our sense is and what we’re still working on is, you know we know on our mine plan LaRonde gets up to 370,000, 375,000 ounces in our budgets and our life of mining planning. We know that we’re going to have about 2,000 tons a day of extra unused capacity in the LaRonde plant, which would allow us to add some ounces possibly from [indiscernible], so we are still studying that, low capital investments. So that could take that complex to 400, Malartic 300 little over and Goldex we think that Akasaba we can get that up to sort of a 140ish area, so that’s over 800. And our longer-term objective given Meliadine and given what see in Amaruq and as proximity to Meadowbank is that certainly has the potential to be 800ish, so minimum or early as that can happen is like the five years. But at the teams we have to take a bit longer because we have to manage risks that will do that.

Steven Butler

Analyst

Because Meliadine is the key to that level of production, that is going to be a difficult decision.

Sean Boyd

Management

Yes, of course it is, largely because of the capital. But I wouldn’t look at Meliadine is a 10% percent rate of return project I would look at as a project that we can likely get to our IRR hurdle rate which is 15%. So we have to look at it in that context. The question then becomes pace and I think we are foreseeing - with that platform it’s an area that we have said many times. It is an area we’re extremely comfortable doing business in. We can get things done there. We have a unique skill set that we’ve developed there since 2007 and what a 10 million ounce deposit growing at Meliadine tell us and what are seeing at Amaruq in terms of exploration tells us, it’s part of the world that, it’s just getting started in terms of understanding the mineral wealth that exist there. And we have a huge headstart, so why should - for us it’s a no-brainer actually, it’s a great place to imply capital. We've got people that can have demonstrate ability to add a lot of value, when they get centered on an operating region and a platform and just like we've been in - for 40 years and we expected to be in Finland for multi-decade, we certainly expect to be a benefit for multi-decade as well. So how we get there, we’re not sure yet. But we have the experience and the skills to get us to where we need to be and make that a very meaningful part of our business going forward.

Steven Butler

Analyst

Okay, thanks, Sean.

Operator

Operator

We will now take the following question from Tanya Jakusconek. Please go ahead.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Good morning, everybody.

Sean Boyd

Management

Good morning.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

I have a couple of questions. First one is on taxes, maybe Dave can walk us through, what exactly happened with the taxes - quarter and or we should think about just trying to get and then my second question Sean for you just on the Lapa net availability, you mentioned - as a potential source of ore. Is that anything - what we be talking back…

David Smith

Analyst

Yes, I will do that before he get to the excitement of tax.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

I know. I didn’t know who to ask…

David Smith

Analyst

Yes, I’ll deal with that. It will be underground, there is several hundred thousand ounces of resource that have there for a longest time, it never made sense, because it did make sense to potentially crowd out other more highly valued tonnage in the region coming from Lapa, but it may makes senses and incremental addition to the LaRonde complex, we haven’t decided one way or the other what we are going to do, we’ve identified that there is an opportunity and our project development group in our northern business is working on that right now. We had studies that have been done over the last sort of five years to ten years on that issue. So what’s more sort of updating that work and it will still take us a few quarters to get that work done to decide whether it make sense for us.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

We need to refurbish that fast and is that related to the water?

Sean Boyd

Management

Yes, we have to do water. We don't see there is massive undertaking to get that operation restarted if the returns are there.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay, before going back to excitement Sean, maybe just one in terms of the cost - where do we see the $22 cost are moving?

Sean Boyd

Management

Yvon, is going to take that.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

Could you repeat the question? I mean not sure on that.

Sean Boyd

Management

Malartic cost where would they go when we get the throughput up from the current level of 53.7 up to 55.

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

I think there is always going to be pressure for Upper Beaver, because there is going to stripping as the stripping ratio goes down in a bit so it’s more of a stripping that’s going to be finally the OpEx structure down the road.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay, and the processing cost were down?

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

They are going to be relatively flat going forward.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay, so nine point offerings?

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

Yes.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Yes, okay.

Sean Boyd

Management

Yes, just of hoping you are going to forget about the tax question.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

This is exciting for us.

Sean Boyd

Management

So it is highly unpredictable and I don’t blame you for not understanding with the effect of IFRS effective tax rate method is going to be highly volatile quarter-to-quarter, but overall for the full year we still reiterated our guidance at 40% to 45% overall, but apologies that it’s quite unpredictable during the year.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Yes, but maybe just what happened to get back the gain in the quarter.

Sean Boyd

Management

The effective tax rate is applied asset by asset and then with exploration expense and so on. Just the way the effective tax rate works out, there is a huge recovery this quarter and it’s just literally applying the IFRS methodology, it is literally as simple as that, but it does effectively reverse throughout the full year if you have a gain like that which is unusual.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

But it’s not treated as an unusual item.

Sean Boyd

Management

No, I guess there is no avoiding volatility unfortunately and it averages there. If you want to get into the details…

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Yes, we could take it offline.

Sean Boyd

Management

Yes, give me a call and we’ll get attached the tax guy to that, but it’s really quite complicated.

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

You need to book a lunch.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Oh my god, all right. Thank you, guys.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We will now take the following question from Anita Soni. Please go ahead.

Anita Soni

Analyst

Good morning guys.

Sean Boyd

Management

Good morning.

Anita Soni

Analyst

Continued with you my questions just to see how my name would be pronounced, but it seems like you do okay. So my question I guess that one that remains with regards to Goldex and the grade that you have. It seems like you had a pretty good quarter with some good grads coming out of the M zone. How do you expect that to turn over to the next quarter and into the next year?

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

Well, production profile for [indiscernible] quite similar to the production profile in Q3. We continue to get better than expected reconsolidation in the M zone because of greater proportion of free gold in that area. We’ve also had in some areas better reconsolidation in the E zone so I think at this stage might be a black model mainly for the M zone is little bit conservative.

Anita Soni

Analyst

Okay, similar question to LaRonde I think you are pulling a little bit more from the - little bit harder, but the underground area, the deeper zone at LaRonde. Is that going to continue for the next year and just going back on to the higher areas?

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

Well, I think the production profile for the Q3 and Q4 will be quite similar at LaRonde. And as we move into 2016, 2017 we’ll continue to increase the level of numbers of stores in the - as depth as we move to the west and we’ll get it to the reserve grade deem essentially.

Anita Soni

Analyst

Thank you very much and congratulations on the quarter.

Sean Boyd

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We will now take the following question from [indiscernible]. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi, everyone. Just a couple of questions for me. First on Kittila, if it say all those well and parallel zone extends to what say closer to the ramp there conceptually when do you see potential increase may be in the mining rate and tonnage there to fill that 20% extra capacity of the mill?

Sean Boyd

Management

Well I think we are focus at this stage at improving the overall economics in earlier question for the same defect and we working on the life of mine number our improvement program down the road that would see a larger rate to match the current capacity as well. Take the timing for all of that is probably 17, 18 onwards which is basically the timing for the production to be get in Rimpi, parallel zone we need to better understand in the next year and we could possibly see some production and around the 800 meter level coming into production perhaps 2019, 2020.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay and how does it may be impact to your thinking the shift there you know the zone.

Sean Boyd

Management

For the banks three or four years we continue to mine plan is focusing on reserves about the 600 level and as we start mining at greater depth on the road past 2020. The shop will become both strategic for operation cost and hope the both strategic for exploration purposes. So that’s all part of our capital allocation process that we are looking into down and we will provide little more color on that in 2016.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Great. And just a quick follow-up. In Q2 you increased your CapEx for the year and then you cut it now by $60 million in Q3 maybe you could provide a bit of detail where is this CapEx coming out from?

Sean Boyd

Management

No, it wasn’t really a cut, that’s about $35 million of the $50 million is FX driven change in the currency and about $15 million was deferral in the next year largely from Mexico next to southern business.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Great, thank you so much.

Operator

Operator

We will now take the following question from Don Maclean. Please go ahead.

Don Maclean

Analyst

Hey, guys, I have a four part question on taxes.

David Smith

Analyst

Great.

Don Maclean

Analyst

Just kidding, Dave, slightly more exciting, when we slightly use actually about G&A and maybe about the Nunavut platform, Sean, if you look at the G&A cost burden as a percentage of your costs currently for the Meadowbank operations, could you give us a sense of what percentage they are now and if you look forward to the larger platform, what might happen to those?

Sean Boyd

Management

Yes, we’ll let Yvon, talk about the costs and then I will come back and just talk about some of the incentives, we’re working on?

Yvon Sylvestre

Analyst

Well, G&A cost I don’t have the exact number, they’re roughly one-third of our OpEx number. And the other part of dealing with the reality with other projects down the road because the cost of bringing in - people and so on is hiring [indiscernible]. It’s - I think it’s going to be quite similar to what we are seeing now in relative terms as to what we are seeing now and then.

Sean Boyd

Management

In the bigger picture though I think what we haven't fully realized is the synergies with the Québec logistical support base and skill set there and the sort of emerging platform in Nunavut. And we do have one senior manager assigned to the task of joint services or the shared services and trying to understand ways that we can provide those services to the Nunavut platform in a more cost-effective way in utilizing the experience base that we have in Québec both from a skill point of view but largely from a planning and logistics point of view. So two projects you know those costs can get spread out and we have more opportunities for shared services. So that’s still a work in process, we’ve just sort of made those people reassignment over the last few months or so in conjunction with establishing a new team for the Nunavut strategy and the Nunavut business and so we certainly expect to be able to get some cost out of what we are currently seeing now that are being borne by Meadowbank.

Don Maclean

Analyst

And so Sean, when you talk about Meliadine is being more conceptually like a 15% rate of return in your hurdle. Are you brining that into account, the synergies on the G&A?

Sean Boyd

Management

No, no. Until now has been done in isolation so we haven’t got to the stage what we understand all of those energy to be able to incorporate and we expect to have that done before the first quarter of next year. So this is more of all a multi quarter process to identify the lock those synergies. And part of it is can we do more from the south, can we do more from our Québec base to support the operation or the emerging platform at Nunavut, because one of the biggest cause is transportation of people and housing the people in the north. So we are looking at all of that now in conjunction with potentially larger platform in Nunavut.

Don Maclean

Analyst

We can just see the benefits just from exploration.

Sean Boyd

Management

The fact that we are able to tag on the exploration support on to the Meadowbank production infrastructure and that’s why our cost to drill a meter in Nunavut are 300 meters - $300 a meter where Junior would probably be paying triple right now. So it's a matter of coordination and planning logistic. The better you are able to plan and the more effective that plan is and how lower your costs are. I think we had to figure that to move a pound of equipment or material by large, it’s under $0.10 a pound to [indiscernible], it’s close to $9. So a lot of that thinking still needs to be done as we try to see how those things come together.

Don Maclean

Analyst

Terrific, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Okay there are no further questions, please continue Mr. Boyd.

Sean Boyd

Management

Thank you operator, and thank you everyone. I know it’s a busy day so thanks for your attention to our conference call.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen this concludes the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your line and have a great day.