Paul Oldham
Analyst · Needham & Company. Please proceed with your question
Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon, everyone. We delivered strong financial results in the fourth quarter and a record 2022 as we secured additional supply of scarce components and began to leverage our backlog and low channel inventory to perform better than the market. Fourth quarter revenue of $491 million, an EPS of $1.70, both reached the second highest levels ever for the company. Overall, revenue grew 24% year-over-year and 18% organically. In the fourth quarter, backlog declined to $875 million, down from $1.1 billion at the end of the third quarter. Approximately 40% of the sequential decline came from the China-based semiconductor customer orders which we moved out of our reported backlog but were not canceled. The rest of the reduction in backlog reflected lower demand and changes in ordering patterns from our semiconductor customers as we improved our lead times. Backlog for non-semi markets remain unchanged quarter-on-quarter despite robust shipments. As we further resolve critical part issues, we expect to work down our total backlog over the next several quarters to a more normalized level of $400 million to $500 million. Now let me go over our financial results in more detail. Revenue in the semiconductor market was $232 million, up 30% year-over-year, but down 13% from a record Q3. Roughly half of the decline was a direct result of the China-based export control regulations announced in the quarter. In addition, our customers lowered their build plans in response to the current environment, which was partially offset by our ability to largely restock customer inventories back towards normalized levels. Revenue in the industrial and medical market was $119 million, up 21% year-over-year and flat with last quarter's record level. We continue to be parts constrained in this market and believe we have upside as component availability improves. Data center computing revenue was up 18% year-over-year and 8% sequentially to $95 million, a new quarterly record. Telecom and networking revenue was $44 million, up 15% year-over-year and 4% sequentially. Fourth quarter gross margin was 36.6%, down 90 basis points from last quarter due primarily to less favorable revenue mix, lower volume and continued higher material costs. Although we began to see some moderation in premiums and recoveries towards the end of the quarter, we expect higher material costs to continue to impact our gross margin through the first half of 2023, with gross margins gradually improving in the second half of the year as premiums abate and historical costs flow through our inventory. Operating expenses were $101 million, up slightly from last quarter, mainly due to timing of programs and infrastructure investments. Operating margin for the quarter was 16%. Depreciation for the quarter was $9 million and our adjusted EBITDA was $87 million. Non-GAAP other expense was $1.1 million on better interest earnings, partially offset by foreign exchange losses. Given higher interest earnings on our cash and the benefits to interest expense on our swap, we expect our non-GAAP other expense to be in the $1 million range, plus or minus, going forward. During the quarter, we initiated a restructuring plan and recognized $5.6 million in restructuring costs, primarily associated with the integration of SL, consolidation of certain production into our higher-volume factories and other targeted reductions consistent with lower volumes in 2023. In addition, we ceased production at our Shenzhen factory at the end of Q4 and will fully close the facility within the current quarter. Looking forward, we expect another $1 million to $2 million of restructuring in Q1. As a combination of these actions and attrition, we expect total headcount to be down approximately 10% by the end of 2023, mostly in our factory operations. Our non-GAAP tax rate was 17%, driven by the level of annual earnings, geographic mix and true-ups to year-end tax positions. For 2023, we are modeling our GAAP and non-GAAP tax rate in the 18% to 19% range. Fourth quarter EPS was $1.70, up from last year's EPS of $1.36 and down from the record third quarter EPS of $2.12. Now let me quickly touch on our full year results. In 2022, we delivered record revenue of $1.85 billion, which was up 27% year-over-year. Excluding the SL Power acquisition, organic revenue grew 23%. We achieved record revenues in the semiconductor, industrial and medical and data center computing markets. On the other hand, we paid over $100 million of material premiums to secure critical parts. Although, we were able to recover a portion of these premiums from our customers, our gross margins were negatively impacted. Despite this sizable cost, our 2022 non-GAAP earnings reached a record $6.49 per share and our annualized second half earnings surpassed our EPS aspirational goal of $7.50. Turning now to the balance sheet. Total cash and marketable securities at the end of the fourth quarter was $461 million, with net cash of $88 million. Cash flow from continuing operations was $71 million. Inventory days were 109 and turns improved to 3.3 times, up slightly from 3.2 times in Q3 as we began to consume inventories of non-critical parts. DSO ticked up slightly to 55 days and DPO declined to 49 days, down from 61 days last quarter, largely due to timing of purchases and lower inventory levels. As a result, net working capital increased to 115 days from 106 days last quarter. During the fourth quarter, we invested $19 million in CapEx as we began to incur the cash expenditures for many of the infrastructure and capacity investments initiated earlier in the year. Looking forward, we expect CapEx to run approximately 4% of sales on timing of project completions and investments to optimize our footprint and scale our structure. During the quarter, we also made debt principal payments of $5 million, paid $3.8 million in dividends and repurchased approximately $700,000 of common stock at $69.16 per share. Turning now to our guidance. Based on this decline in the wafer fab equipment market, we expect our semiconductor revenue to be down in the high-teens sequentially with the impact of the market decline partially mitigated by our pockets of strength and our ability to complete the restocking of customer inventories to normalize the levels. While demand is stronger in our other markets, revenues continue to be gated by supply of critical components. As a result, we expect first quarter revenue to be approximately $415 million, plus or minus $20 million. We expect Q1 gross margins to be in the low 36% range on lower volumes and modest improvement in material cost premiums. We expect Q1 operating expenses to be down slightly from Q4, but to increase modestly for the balance of the year on inflationary factors and continued investment in critical R&D and growth initiatives. As a result, we expect Q1 non-GAAP earnings per share to be $1.10, plus or minus $0.25. Before I open it up for questions, I want to highlight a few important points. 2022 was a record year for Advanced Energy. Our semiconductor revenue growth substantially outperformed the wafer fab equipment market and each of our end markets grew 20% or more year-over-year. While this will inevitably result in tougher comparisons in 2023, we continue to expect to perform better than the market over the course of the year. More importantly, we believe our diversification into multiple markets, larger and more stable service business and healthier backlog and customer inventory positions will enable us to perform substantially better than in previous market cycles, demonstrating the benefits of our long-term strategy. While the supply chain remains dynamic, we expect improvement in deliveries of critical components over the course of the year, which coupled with lower material premiums and improved operational efficiency will allow us to gradually improve our gross margins in the second half of the year. During this time, we will continue to accelerate new products and scale the company while controlling our discretionary spending and optimizing our footprint. As a result, we expect Advanced Energy is well positioned to outperform during the cycle, emerge stronger as markets recover and continue to grow revenue and earnings over time. With that, we'll take your questions. Operator?