Jeff Likosar
Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question
Thank you, Jim and thank you everyone for joining today’s call. As Jim mentioned, we have performed very well during the challenging 2020 macroeconomic environment and we are very pleased with our overall third quarter results and our improved outlook for the full year. We are even more excited about the actions we have taken and progress we have made during 2020 to position ADT for long-term growth and success. Our strong performance this year continues to demonstrate the resilience of our business and the fortitude of our teams who have risen to the challenge and remain passionately focussed on delivering for our customers in both the near and longer term. I will summarize some of our key financial and operational measures along with a brief update on our outlook and will then open the call for questions. Our total reported revenue in the quarter was essentially flat year-over-year, despite the 2019 distribution of our Canada operations, which previously represented approximately 4% of our revenue. Installation and other revenue increased by $46 million, driven mainly by higher reported residential outright sales revenue resulting from the Defenders acquisition. This increase was partially offset by lower installation revenue to commercial customers, resulting from the COVID-19 driven economic challenges we have encountered in that part of our business during 2020. Monitoring services revenue declined by 4% on a total company basis, and was up slightly year-over-year excluding the effects of the Canada Disposition. Our ending recurring monthly revenue or RMR balance, a primary driver monitoring and services revenue grew by approximately 2% in the U.S., compared to the prior year, including an increase in commercial RMR. Our highlight in the quarter, which Jim already mentioned, was improvement in our gross revenue attrition, which declined by approximately 60 basis points versus the prior year to a record low of 12.9%. Our improvement here was again driven by several factors, including continued focus on service, the effectiveness of our retention initiatives, and some of the environmental tailwinds, Jim described, including fuel relocations. Our adjusted EBITDA of $564 million was up slightly on a sequential basis compared to the second quarter. Our cash generation remained very strong both in the third quarter and year-to-date, despite higher cash interest due to a shift in coupon timing, which will reverse in the fourth quarter. We generated $127 million of adjusted free cash flow during the third quarter and through the first nine months of 2020, our adjusted free cash flow of $532 million is up more than 15% from the $459 million during the same period in 2019. Our strong year-to-date cash performance comes from a variety of factors that more than offset the higher cash interest, including subscriber acquisition cost efficiency, and the benefits from some favorable cost base trends in our current operating environment, along with some timing items. A highlight of our strong cash performance is that we have concurrently grown our subscriber in our RMR base, which has been enabled by improved efficiency in net subscriber acquisition costs or SAC. During the third quarter, we decreased our net SAC by 1% while rolling our additions to RMR by 7%. Excluding the effect of the candidate disposition our U.S. RMR additions grew by 10%. This substantial RMR growth on lower net SAC lead to our best ever revenue payback at 2.2 years on a trailing 12-month basis, down from 2.4 years a year ago. As Jim shared earlier, the benefits of our consumer financing program, better pricing and other sales and marketing efficiencies, including benefits from the Defenders acquisition contributed to this improvement. After two full quarters of our new pricing and financing model, we are very pleased with the progress we have seen in higher installation revenue per unit from our residential customers. Additionally, the mix shifts towards non capitalized SAC driven in the third quarter mainly by legacy Defenders outright sales was less pronounced than during the first half due to our on-going transition to our historical ADT ownership model, which will continue as we further integrate Defenders. Overall, we delivered very solid operation and financial results during the quarter despite the COVID-19 challenges. And we did so while also improving our longer term position due to progress on the Google partnership and several other initiatives. Turning now to the balance sheet, we also continue to improve our capital structure during the third quarter. A highlight is that we issued $1 billion of new 2027 notes and use the proceeds to redeem our 2021 notes. We price this issuance with a three and three eights percent coupon substantially lower than the six and a quarter percent coupon on our 2021 nose, which will result in run rate interest savings of almost $30 million. Collectively, after a series of transactions during 2019 and 2020, we have decreased our average borrowing cost by approximately 100 basis points. Additionally, with the closing of the Google transactions, we received $450 million in cash for Google's investments and approximately 55 million shares of ADT Class B common stock. As we have described, we intend to use proceeds from the Google transaction for a combination of road funding and debt repayment. And to that end, we are announcing today our intent to repay a minimum of $300 million of debt during the fourth quarter of this year. Before moving to Q&A, I want to share a brief update on our outlook for full year 2020. As you mentioned, our business continues to perform well and exceeded our expectations during the third quarter. We consequently are once again revising our full year outlook hire. Our new revenue range is $5.2 billion to $5.35 billion, up from $5.05 billion to $5.3 billion. Our revised adjusted EBITDA range is $2.15 billion to $2.25 billion, an improvement from $2.1 billion to $2.2 billion previously. And our refreshed adjusted free cash flow range is $650 million to $725 million, compared to the prior range of $625 million to $725 million. As always, we will continue to bounce short and longer term objectives with a focus on the pursuit of selected incremental growth investments to generate future period returns, some of which we are considering during the remainder of 2020. As we developed our 2021 plans, we are focused on investing in and positioning our company for long term growth and building on a progress from the past few years. We look forward to sharing more on our next earnings call in early 2021. To conclude my comments today, I want to emphasize that we are very pleased with our strong results through the first nine months of 2020. We are thankful for our committed team of 20,000 employees and their perseverance and performance during a challenging year. And we are excited by the progress we have made positioning ADT for the longer term and by the resulting opportunities in front of us. Thank you again everyone for being on today's call. Operator, we will now open the line for questions.