Michael Geltzeiler
Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead
Thanks, Naren. As Naren mentioned, we delivered another quarter of improved financial and operational results. This is our formula for success. Execute on the five operating levers in our core businesses to drive higher recurring revenue and pre-SAC EBITDA, while at the same time we invest a portion of our cash flows and profits and improving customer experience launching new businesses like commercial and new services and health, increasing Pulse penetration and adding new products and services. All of which will generate future cash flows and incremental profitability benefiting both our customers and shareholders. We also remain committed to delivering against our 2015 guidance. I'm pleased to report that we are updating our guidance favorably versus earlier guidance, which I will address later in my remarks. As we look towards the second half of the year, we will continue to invest in creating new partnerships, as we open our platform to expand our services to target the large market opportunity that currently doesn't purchase home security and automation services, expand our health and commercial businesses as well as integrate our Canadian businesses. Over the next few slides, I'll review our Q2 performance and highlight our accomplishments during the quarter. Slide seven provides an overview of our GAAP and non-GAAP results. Recurring revenue, which accounts for 93% of our total revenue, grew 7.2% to $829 million, while total revenue increased by 6.3%. When adjusting for the Canadian dollar, which declined by 11% versus last year, recurring revenue was up 7.8%, and total revenue increased by 6.8%. We report the FX impact only on ADT Canada, since Protectron was not in the portfolio this time last year. However, including Protectron, Canada represents almost 10% of our total company revenues, and the currency impact versus the start of this year when we gave guidance is nearly 13%. Our business remains strong, and we are focused on growing through a highly profitable recurring revenue model – continuing the trend you have seen in our historical results. The best metrics to gauge this growth are recurring revenue, pre-SAC EBITDA and steady-state free cash flow. Despite lower SAC, we still incur investment when adding new customers during the first year, and it's dilutive to EBITDA, EPS and free cash flow before turning favorable beginning in year two. In Q2, Protectron contributed slightly more than half to their revenue growth. Protectron currently operates at a lower margin at ADT so the consolidation had a dilutive impact on our financial results. EBITDA before special items for the quarters was 444 million, up 3% or 13 million over prior year, excluding a $2 million impact from the weak Canadian dollar, and resulting in EBITDA margins before special items for the quarter of 49.9%. Second quarter EBITDA before special items includes a negative impact of approximately $11 million pre-tax related to a change in how we account for dealer payments for lead generated through a marketing efficiency program. Roughly half of this amount is related to the first quarter. With this accounting change and the addition of Protectron the EBITDA margins compressed 160 basis points relative to last year. However, otherwise it would've been flat on par year at 51.5%. Cost to serve was up 10% due primarily to the consolidation of Protectron as well as planned spending increases to improve customer service levels and investments to launch our commercial business. Excluding Protectron, cost to serve expenses were up less than 5% over last year despite the higher mix of Pulse customers. GAAP EPS was up nearly 18% to $0.40 a share. Including special items non-GAAP diluted EPS was $0.47 which also includes the impact of $0.04 per share related to the incremental cost recognized in the income statement associated with a change in how we're accounting for dealer payments for leads through the marketing efficiency program. Using our Q2 cash tax rate of 4% our diluted earnings per share before special items was $0.67 for the quarter. Our effective tax rate was 33%. The chart also details our special items for the quarter. In Q2 we continue to make progress on our 2G radio conversion project upgrading 82,000 customers, a portion of which we were able to upsell to ADT Pulse. As we've previously communicated, this project will continue through 2016 and we are comfortably ahead of our plan. We also incurred $2 million of restructuring charges. Now I'd like to give you some additional color on the marketing efficiency program we discussed in the impact of the change in the way we are accounting for this effort. As part of our cost efficiency programs we initiated an effort with selected dealers to significantly optimize our paid search activities. This included centralizing paid search lead generation efforts at ADT and eliminating the scenario in which we would essentially bid up the search prices with our dealers. The participating dealers pay a fee to ADT for their share of the leads. The program has been a huge success saving tens of millions of dollars in search fees in reducing the cost per collect by over 80%. We previously reported the fees we received from the dealers as a contra marketing expense mitigating the incremental marketing expense incurred by ADT. However in Q2, we began to count for these payments as an offset to the amounts we pay dealers for customer accounts. The impact of this change results in an increase in marketing expense that we recognize in the income statement with an offsetting reduction in the capital expenditures incurred for dealer generated customer accounts. This change does not affect SAC, net creation multiples, pre-SAC EBITDA, future returns or cash flow. What this does affect is the timing of expense recognition, as marketing expenses are period costs, whereby customer acquisition costs phase into the P&L over time. Therefore, with this change, in the quarter, we recognized approximately $11 million pre-tax, or $0.04 per share in EPS terms, of additional expense in the income statement, of which about half is attributable to Q1. Accordingly, we also recognized lower capital spending for dealer accounts of the same amount. This program will continue in the future due to its success. In the second half of the year, we expect to recognize approximately $13 million in incremental marketing expenses from this initiative, with a corresponding offsetting capital spending for dealer accounts and a modest improvement in D&A. Turning to the operating levers, slide eight shows another quarter of strong year-over-year growth in both gross adds and revenue per unit. Total company gross adds, excluding a bulk purchase last year, increased over 8% year-over-year, driven by improved performance across our residential, business and health channels. Our gross adds in our direct channel were up 9%, despite the headwinds caused by our enhanced credit screening, which management estimates filtered out about 5,000 potential sales. We expect this enhanced process to continue to favorably impact attrition by filtering out credit-challenged customers. Gross adds in our dealer channel excluding bulks rose 7% from last year, as we experienced higher sales from existing dealers and benefited from Protectron's dealer channel production. We are also – we are pleased with the performance of our dealer channel year-to-date, as they have now delivered year-over-year growth for the third consecutive quarter. Pricing remains healthy as demonstrated by our ability to continue to grow ARPU. The success of Pulse expanded service offerings in our business channel and the launch of our premium priced on-the-go emergency response system in our health channel have all helped drive higher revenue per user over the past year. For the quarter, new and resale ARPU was $48.18, an increase of nearly 5% over the prior-year and ARPU for our overall customer base was $41.98, up nearly 2%. Adjusting for Protectron's lower average ARPU, the average ARPU was actually up 4%. Our priority over the past year has been to improve the customer experience and increase customer retention. We have launched several initiatives to reduce attrition and the results on slide nine slow that these initiatives are paying off. We improved attrition for the fourth consecutive quarter and are operating considerably below our guidance of less than 13%. Q2 trailing 12 month net revenue attrition was 12.5%, sequential improvement of 50 basis points and a significant reduction of 170 basis points versus Q2 of last year. Unit attrition, which measures customer attrition for just our residential and business customers, was 12.5% for the quarter, a 40% – 40 basis point improvement versus Q1 and a 120 basis points lower than last year. We remain focused on enhancing the customer experience, reducing non-paid disconnections and increasing resales, which all contribute to reducing attrition. As Naren mentioned, for Q2 we reported decline in the customer base of less than 3,000 subscribers, which compares favorably to last year when we lost 30,000 customers. For the first half of the year, we had a net subscriber churn of just over 10,000 customers versus nearly 80,000 in the first half of last year. We grew subscribers in ADT business and in-house by reporting only a modest decline in residential customers. Moving on to slide 10, which shows our quarterly results for recurring revenue margin in SAC. For the quarter, recurring revenue margin on our existing customer base was 65.7% down 90 basis points versus prior year driven by increased spend to improve our customer service levels, growth investments and the impact of Protectron. The dilutive effect of consolidating Protectron alone impacted recurring revenue margins by 50 basis points versus last year. Despite higher Pulse take rates, which exceed 55% and require a larger upfront investment, we continue to reduce customer acquisition costs and lower net creation multiples. Excluding the impact of Pulse upgrades, our combined net creation multiple improved by 0.9 times to 31.2 times in Q2. While the net creation multiple in our direct channel fell to 31.5 times at 2.4 times improvement from last year. Dealing net creation multiples were 30.6 times. Excluding the impact of upgrades, net SAC in our direct channel was $1519 per install lower by just over $40 per unit from last year despite the increase in Pulse mix. This reduction is a clear indication of our success for the launch of several productivity initiatives such as our new e-contract platform and implementation of new hardware such as the TS Panel to drive efficiencies during the installation process. In the quarter, we installed about 26,000 TS Panels in our direct channel. In the recurring revenue subscription business like ours, the best long-term measure for cash flow is steady-state free cash flow, as this calculation measures the free cash flow generated by maintaining the recurring revenue from our existing customer base and excludes the incremental investment required to grow from adding new subscribers. One of the key drivers in this calculation is the SAC per customer required to replace lost RMR due to attrition. As you can see, the initiatives we implemented have allowed us to begin stabilizing our creation multiples, and the net investment to acquire a new customer is now approximately $1,500 in our direct channel. The actual SAC per subscriber is declining. When you combine the reduction in SAC with our improvement in attrition, you gain a sense of the levels of cash flow that we could generate by simply maintaining our current recurring revenue. Steady-state free cash flow for Q2 was $940 million, up nearly 20% over prior year, the improvement is attributed to a 170-basis-point reduction in attrition, lower SAC and higher pre-SAC EBITDA. On slide 12, we detail the components of free cash flow for the quarter. In order to highlight the value drivers of our business, we've developed this chart to segment our free cash flow into the cash we generate from existing customers and the cash attributed through new subscriber acquisition. As I mentioned, pre-SAC EBITDA was up, driven by the strong operational performance and the past investments we've made in adding high-paying Pulse customers. This was somewhat offset this quarter by some timing issues in working capital mostly from the prior quarter. Our results also included a 10% year-over-year increase in cash interest expense, driven by the debt issued to fund our share buyback program, which has reduced shares outstanding by 26% since its inception. All in, our pre-SAC free cash flow from existing customers was 501 million in the quarter, up 13 million compared to the previous year. Investing in subscriber growth is the main driver behind our ability to generate free cash flow as our spend in acquiring new customers impact both our P&L and cash flow statement. 94% of our total CapEx spend this quarter was driven by our investments in new customers. In Q2, our SAC spending before special items was $402 million, up about 10% on prior year, which includes both the P&L cost, like marketing and capital spending on account acquisition. The largest driver of the increased SAC spending were the 7-plus-percent growth in new subscriber adds as well as an increase in Pulse upgrades from 18,000 to 32,000 year-over-year. Our dealer channel saw a CapEx increase as well, however driven by a 7% increase in gross adds, the inclusion of Protectron and significantly higher Pulse take rates. Dealer CapEx was favorably impacted, 11 million by the accounting change. Factoring in all of this, free cash flow before special items for the quarter was $99 million versus 46 million in the first quarter and 121 million a year ago. We will discuss cash flow trends more at our upcoming Investor Day. We're optimistic that free cash flow will increase despite further investments in the business as we will benefit from higher new customer ARPU, favorable attrition trends and productivity improvements in hardware and installation. Investment drivers due to the higher Pulse take rates and Pulse upgrades are transitional, which we expect to stabilize the decline over the next few years. Slide 13 highlights our capital allocation and debt levels for the order. Trailing 12 month leverage was 2.9 times. Overall, the company's total cost of borrowing remained below 4% for Q2, given us the flexibility to invest in our business and customer growth which continues to be the best use of capital for ADT. We also paid a quarterly dividend of $0.21 per share, a 5% increase over last year. In addition to paying a higher dividend, we continue to be opportunistic on our share buybacks and repurchased 1.3 million shares for $44 million increasing our year-to-date repurchases to 4.2 million shares at an average price of $32.91 per share. For 2014 and 2015 combined, our average purchase price on 39 million shares was $37.97 per share. The repurchases this quarter helped us bring the average diluted share count to 172 million, a 26 % reduction from inception. We have approximately $243 million remaining on the share buyback authorization and we will remain opportunistic when evaluating future buybacks. Slide 14 shows our updated guidance. When we gave recurring revenue and EBITDA guidance at the end of fiscal 2014, the Canadian dollar stood at $0.91. We ended the quarter sub $0.80, a drop of about 13%. That said, we are increasing our guidance for recurring revenue and providing both our reported in constant dollar view. Even despite the negative FX, we have increased the range to the high-end of our guidance on a reported basis which includes the current exchange rates. On a constant currency basis we believe our recurring revenue growth will exceed 6%. We're introducing pre-SAC EBITDA guidance as a guidance measure, because as discussed earlier, we believe it is a more accurate measure to evaluate our performance. The portion of SAC that is expense versus capitalized varies dramatically based on the source of the new customer. This is highlighted by the impact assessed earlier on the accounts acquired from our dealers that participated in the marketing efficiency program. By focusing on pre-SAC EBITDA, we removed desirability and provided better insight into the business. On a reported basis, we believe pre-SAC EBITDA growth will be in a range of $80 million to $100 million and over $100 million on a constant currency basis. In adding pre-SAC EBITDA guidance, we made the decision to have this replace EBITDA guidance. We, of course, will continue to report EBITDA throughout the year but will no longer be providing guidance to this result. To date this year, without the impact of the accounting change we discussed earlier, EBITDA is up $71 million – I'm sorry – $51 million and progressing well, despite the negative currency, towards our prior guidance. In terms of attrition, we are currently favorable to our year-end goal of sub-13% net unit attrition. We now expect year-end attrition to be in the mid-12% range. Lastly, we confirmed guidance that steady-state free cash flow on an exchange-neutral basis will be above $1 billion by year-end. Now, I'd like to turn the call back over to Naren.