Tom Hall
Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead
When you think of the clustering really, were put together for two reasons, one was that historically what we've seen in markets where we have a great facility and I've talked quite a bit about market called [indiscernible] in other calls and you will a have a great facility that will perform really well, competitors hear about it, they tell me they pull one across the street and hit this negatively. What we decided to do quite a while ago now, if you think about it from the time we decided do this, to opening our facilities 15 month. So this strategy was put in place a long time ago. The thought process was that when we find really good markets, we're going to go in and cluster because we have this very sophisticated data analytics from our locations and so we know where we want to put these things and the thought process is we'll go in, we'll cluster our market and then we'll own the market totally. And so I've talk about [indiscernible] work, I've said theoretically they had a facility that made $3 million, paid me to profit one to two which was just hugely negative same store sales, you put two more in there, and they make $1.5 million to $2 million apiece, market is up substantially even though you're seeing sort of on that is soft. A second part of that, that we put in place a while and you should have been seeing it roll out is, we knew we were going to build this hospital and then into the other markets, we knew in Colorado and that we were going to do this, so again these hospitals have been in the pipe for a long time and we said oh my gosh, now with these hospitals, we really want to work what makes sense to get it own these different geographic areas and to be pretty aggressive on that, if you think of what Starbucks was back in the day, we have a very retail focus around here and how we did that, so with that, that's what you're seeing and it's causing obviously what appears to be a disproportionate negative same store sales. When it turned is, it's not just going to just turn because of anniversary, it's going to turn when we turn the hospitals on. Okay. When we turn the hospitals on, so if you think about you averaging 10 patients a day to keep the math very simple, who knows what the numbers are going to be and a reasonable person would assume you'll probably pick up at least five patients a day because now you can take government pay and then you also put a hospital name on the building and all that and that scenario, Andrew, your same store sales would be 50% positive volume. You can imagine what happens at proper, remember we're a fixed cost model and so our marginal cost per patient's a $100 approximately. So, you're going to see same store profit grow dramatically also. Tie that into a comment I made earlier today which is the only thing we have to the operating that's operating full hospital, taking all payers is in Arizona and we're seeing 20 plus patients a day. What gets people excited is imagine by year end, I think we're going to have approximately 25 facilities in DFW, imagine that DFW when you turn that hospital on and you start hitting those tighter numbers, it gets pretty exciting, pretty fast, okay. As you might have [indiscernible] okay. And so same stores are going to turn positive, really positive and no bullshit, I mean, it's going to be like real numbers, real same store not because you're anniversarying, and also the revenues can be even more positive and then to add to that we mentioned that we have two hospitals coming online in Colorado. So, when those things come online, it's going to pound Colorado big time same store positive and then people who will asked us before, we don't have any players -- it's probably a reasonable person would assume, we're going to public continue this strategy in other markets in Texas. And so you should expect to see very positive same store out of us for quite a while, I mean it's pretty exciting, okay. And it's going to drive a disproportionate amount of profitability when we do that. And so that's what's causing it, so you never say never, but my guess is we have one at most, two more quarters of this negative volume we're seeing and then I think you will see it turn very positive, very quickly.