Jan Siegmund
Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Thank you, Carlos. As Carlos stated, we are progressing well with the planned spin-off of Dealer Services. An updated Form 10 was filed with the SEC on July 25 and can be found on the ADP Investor Relations website. We expect to file an updated Form 10 with fiscal 2014 results for the new company in early September. In conjunction with the spin-off, we are still expecting that ADP will receive at least $700 million from the new Dealer Services entity, which we intend to use to repurchase ADP stocks. With that, let's move on to our fiscal year 2014 results. Our fiscal year 2014 results include about $15 million of spin-related costs, and as indicated last quarter, these costs were excluded from our forecast for the year. We expect to incur an additional $40 million to $50 million of spin-related costs over the first 2 quarters of fiscal year 2015, which are also excluded from the fiscal year 2015 forecast as these costs will be reported within discontinued operations upon completion of the spin-off. And just to note, my comments exclude the impact of the $15 million of spin-related costs recorded in this year's fourth quarter, and the year-over-year comparison I am discussing are to the fiscal year 2013 financials adjusted to exclude the impairment charge of last year's fourth quarter. Before I get into the results, I want to call your attention to our cash and marketable securities balance of $4.1 billion at June 30, 2014. This includes 2,000 -- $2.2 billion of assets related to outstanding commercial paper in support of our extended investment strategy for the client funds portfolio and is footnoted on our condensed balance sheet. This borrowing was repaid on July 1. I also want to point out that ADP continued its shareholder-friendly actions, repurchasing 9 million shares for $679 million and paid cash dividends of over $880 million during fiscal year 2014. So now for the results. ADP's revenues grew 8%, nearly all organic, to $12.2 billion for the year. We achieved 8% growth in both pretax and net earnings and 9% earnings per share growth on fewer shares outstanding compared with the year ago. Overall, our results were solid, with each of our business segments performing well. Employer Services grew total revenues 8%, nearly all organic; the PEO grew 15%; and Dealer Services grew 7%. In Employer Services, growth in the small and mid-market contributed particularly well. And as Carlos mentioned earlier, Employer Services worldwide client retention improved to 91.4% on top of an already historically high retention rate. We are pleased to see continued strength in our same-store pays per control in Employer Services in the U.S. with an increase of 2.8% per year. In Europe, same-store pays per control declined by 0.5% for the full year and 0.3% for the fourth quarter. So while the economy across Europe remains a bit soft, it does appear to be stabilizing. Average client fund balances increased a healthy 8% for the fiscal year. Lower state unemployment tax rates were offset by: increases from our new business growth, especially in the small and midsized markets; wage growth, including bonus payments by our clients; as well as pays per control. The PEO delivered higher than anticipated results for the year with 15% revenue growth, driven by 15% average worksite employee growth and strong revenue retention. Dealer Services revenue growth of 7% was driven by new clients and applications installed, as well as increased digital advertising revenues, but was lower than our expectations because of continued weakness across Continental Europe and some softness in one of our transaction-based businesses. Dealer Services margin expansion of 130 basis points for the full year benefited from certain nonrecurring items in both the third and fourth quarter. As anticipated, ADP's pretax -- total pretax earnings were negatively impacted in fiscal year 2014 by the decline in client interest revenues resulting from low interest rates. The impact of low interest rates reduced ADP's revenue growth by almost 0.5 percentage point and pretax earnings growth by 3 percentage points as the lower yield more than offset the benefit received from the 8% growth in balances. Pretax margin was negatively impacted 80 basis points, and diluted earnings per share were lower by almost $0.08 or 3 percentage points for the year. Excluding the impact of the client funds investment strategy and recognizing the healthy margin expansion our business segments achieved for the fiscal year, largely driven by operating efficiencies, it is evident that there is leverage in ADP's business model and you will see this as we move on to our discussion of next year's outlook. So let me take you through our fiscal year 2015 forecast, starting with total company guidance. Remember that the forecast includes the Dealer Services business, but excludes any spin-related costs. We anticipate total revenue growth of 7% to 8%. Pretax margin for total ADP is anticipated to improve by 75 to 100 basis points from 18.8% last year, which excluded spin-related costs of approximately $15 million recorded in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2014. We expect a higher effective tax rate of 34.6% compared with the 33.7% in fiscal year 2014. Diluted earnings per share are expected to grow 11% to 13% compared with $3.14 in fiscal year 2014, which excludes spin-related costs recorded in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2014. As it is part of our usual practice, the forecast does not contemplate further share buybacks beyond anticipated dilution related to employee equity comp plans, though it is clearly our intent to continue to return excess cash to our shareholders depending obviously on market conditions. In addition, this forecast does not contemplate any share repurchases from the $700 million or more ADP will receive from the new Dealer Services business at the time of the spin. Consistent with the tax-free nature of the spin, we are required to repurchase ADP shares with this cash within 12 months of the spin. However, our intent is to do so over the 9 months remaining in fiscal year 2015 after the completion of the spin, which would result in slight earnings per share accretion for the full year. We believe the ranges we have given you for revenue and earnings per share growth have contemplated both the opportunities and the challenges ADP is facing in fiscal year 2015. Typical items that could be impactful to earnings would include the success of our sales force in bringing new products to market and our ability to implement those products, possible changes to the regulatory environment, particularly any changes relative to the ACA, as well as our ability to sustain our client retention level. Consider, for example, at the high end of our revenue and earnings forecast ranges, we have anticipated the renewal of certain high-margin WOTC tax credit revenues in the second half of the fiscal year. Additionally, the interest rate environment will impact our new purchase rates, and foreign exchange rates could move either up or down. And while we don't provide quarterly guidance, I want you to be aware of certain items impacting the first 2 quarters for the fiscal year. As you may recall, we stepped up our investment in R&D during the second half of fiscal year 2014. Investments we have made include such innovations as data analytics user experience, enhancement to our strategic platforms and improvements in our time-to-market capabilities. I also would like to remind you that new bookings growth in the last -- in last year's first quarter was 1%, and as a result, we anticipate higher selling expenses in the first quarter compared with the year ago. We expect that the year-over-year pressure from these items will result in additional expense of about $30 million in each of the first 2 quarters of fiscal year 2015. Therefore, you should assume that ADP margin improvement and profitability is weighted more towards the second half of the fiscal year. And now before I take you through the details of our forecast for the client fund investment strategy, there are a few things I would like to point out. First, the objective of our investment strategy remains safety, liquidity and diversification. At June 30, about 82% of our fixed income portfolio was invested in AAA and AA-rated securities. We continue to base the interest assumptions in our forecast on the fed funds future contracts and forward year curve for the 3.5- and 5-year U.S. government agencies, as we do not believe it is possible to accurately predict future interest rates, the shape of the yield curve or new bond issuance behavior of corporations and other issuers. I'll also remind you that our strategy usually results in about 15% to 20% of the reinvestments -- of the investments maturing each year and therefore subject to investment risk each year. We anticipate that the maturities of fiscal year 2015 will be in line with this range. We anticipate average client fund balances for fiscal year 2015 in the range of $21.8 billion to $22.2 billion, which represents 5% to 7% growth. About 1 percentage point of this growth is expected to come from outside of the U.S., evidence that our global money movement operation is gaining traction. We anticipate a yield on the client funds portfolio of 1.7% to 1.8%, which represents a decrease of up to 10 basis points from the fiscal year 2014. We anticipate that client fund interest, as well as the total impact of pretax earnings from the extended investment strategy will be up to $5 million to $15 million compared with fiscal 2014. And although we are forecasting a positive impact to pretax earnings from the client fund investment strategy, we are still expecting a slight drag of 10 to 15 basis points on ADP's pretax margin due to the highly profitable nature of these revenues, which are forecasted to grow at a slower rate than overall revenues. If this fiscal year 2014 forecast for the client funds investment strategy is realized, it will be the first time since 2008 that ADP will experience a positive impact to both revenues and earnings. However, the benefit is not expected to occur until the second half of fiscal year. Now the guidance for our business segments. For Employer Services, we are forecasting revenue growth of about 6% to 7% with pretax margin expansion of about 100 basis points. We anticipate an increase in our pays per control metric in the U.S. of 2% to 3%. For PEO Services, we are forecasting 13% to 15% revenue growth with up to 50 basis points in pretax margin expansion. We are forecasting about 8% growth in the annual dollar value of ES and PEO worldwide new business bookings from the over $1.4 billion sold in fiscal year 2014. And for Dealer Services, we are forecasting 7% to 8% revenue growth with about 50 basis points of pretax margin expansion. And now I will return the call back over to Carlos for his closing remarks.