Christopher R. Reidy
Analyst · David Togut with Evercore Partners
Thanks, Carlos, and good morning, everyone. I'm going to be on Slide 5 when you can see it. Total revenues grew 5% for the quarter to $2.6 billion. Organic growth was 3%, and acquisitions contributed 2 points of growth. As anticipated, unfavorable foreign exchange rates during the quarter negatively impacted revenues 2%. As we indicated when we provided our initial forecast in August, lower client fund interest revenues due to low market interest rates negatively impacted revenues 1%. Revenues were also negatively impacted an additional 1% from loss revenues related to last year's second quarter sale of assets and the expiration of certain employment tax credits in our Tax Credit Service business. Pretax earnings increased 2%, and ADP's pretax margin declined 50 basis points. As there were several items that negatively impacted ADP's revenue growth, many of these items negatively impacted pretax earnings and margin growth. Fiscal 2012 acquisitions did not have a meaningful impact on pretax earnings, but negatively impacted ADP's pretax margin 40 basis points. The client funds extended investment strategy, which is driven primarily by interest on client funds, negatively impacted pretax earnings growth 4% and pretax margin 100 basis points. The impact from last year's sale of assets and expiration of certain employment tax credits negatively impacted pretax earnings growth 4% and pretax margins 50 basis points. Moving next to net earnings. We reported a 1% increase on a higher effective tax rate. Diluted earnings per share increased 2% and benefited from fewer shares outstanding compared to last year. The negative impacts from the decline in client interest and the grow-over from last year's second quarter items also created significant pressure on net earnings and diluted earnings per share. So the point I'm making is that when you peel back and remove the impact of these items, ADP's businesses are delivering very good revenue, earnings and pretax margin improvement. We repurchased 3.7 million ADP shares fiscal year-to-date for a total cost of $215 million. We ended the quarter with cash and marketable securities of $1.2 billion, excluding the assets related to our reverse repurchase borrowing related to our extended investment strategy for the client funds portfolio. Let's move on to Slide 6 and the business segment results. As I've stated, we are pleased with the performance of our business segments. Employer Services grew total revenues 6%; and PEO grew 13%, driven by 11% growth in the number of average worksite employees; and Dealer grew 9%. On an organic basis, Employer Services grew 5%, PEO 13% growth was all organic and Dealer Services grew 7%. Worldwide new business sales from Employer Services and PEO Services were particularly strong in the quarter, with 15% growth. Carlos took you through the sales details a few moments ago, so I'll move on to discuss the revenue growth drivers in Employer Services. Of the items we called out that impacted total company results in the quarter, the foregone revenues related to last year's second quarter sale of assets and the expiration of certain tax credits negatively impacted our Employer Services segment revenue growth nearly 2 percentage points. Good growth from RUN and insurance services were the primary drivers of our healthy growth in the small business marketplace. In the mid-market, revenues from our Workforce Now solution are growing nicely, as our HR services and comprehensive services revenues. Across the mid-market and large company market, we are pleased with the revenue growth from our Time & Labor Management solutions. And at the high end of the market, we are pleased with Vantage sales, but the contribution to revenue growth is still small at this point. Revenue growth in the quarter from our best-of-breed solutions across Europe and for multinational solutions was also solid in the quarter. Same-store pays per control in Employer Services in the U.S. was strong, with an increase of 3.3%. However, same-store pays per control across Europe declined during the quarter, in line with our expectations. And as Carlos mentioned, client revenue retention declined 40 basis points in the quarter. Average client fund balances increased 6% for the quarter. Solid new client growth continued, especially in small business services, and increased pays per control contributed positive balance growth. Now let's turn to Slide 7, and I'll take you through the forecast on the client funds investment strategy in support of the overall ADP forecast that Carlos would take you through in a few moments. Before I get into the details of the forecast, I'll point out that the objective of our investment strategy remains safety, liquidity and diversification. Fully consistent with these objectives, we were again able to take advantage of the supply of new investment-grade corporate fixed income securities in the first quarter and added more highly-rated corporate bonds to our portfolio. At September 30, approximately 84% of our fixed income portfolio was invested in AAA- and AA-rated securities. We continue to base the interest assumptions in our forecast on Fed Funds futures contracts and the forward yield curves for the 3.5- and 5-year U.S. government agencies as we do not believe that it's possible to accurately predict future interest rates, the shape of the yield curve or the new bond issuance behavior of corporations. I'll also remind you that up to 15% to 20% of the investments are subject to reinvestment risk each year. Focusing now on the slide, you will see a summary of the anticipated pretax earnings impact of the extended investment strategy for the client funds investment portfolio of fiscal 2013. We continue to anticipate average client fund balances for fiscal 2013 in the range of $18.8 billion to $19.1 billion, which represents 5% to 7% growth. We also continue to anticipate a yield on the client funds portfolio of 2.2% to 2.3%, down 50 to 60 basis points from fiscal 2012, resulting in an anticipated year-over-year decline in client funds interest of $70 million to $75 million, slightly worse than our prior forecast as anticipated new purchase rates declined from the time we provided our initial guidance in early August. As you can see at the lower right of the chart, in terms of the total pretax impact of the extended investment strategy, we anticipate a decline of $80 million to $85 million for fiscal 2013, which reflects the $5 million deterioration in the client interest forecast. Taking you back to our analyst conference at the end of May, based on futures and forward curves at that time, under the 0%, 5% and 10% balance growth scenarios that we provided, we expected fiscal 2013 to be the largest year-over-year decline in client funds and earnings, out to fiscal 2017. Specifically, under the 5% balance growth scenario, we expected a $70 million to $80 million decline in fiscal 2013. Since the end of May, the 3.5- and 5-year agency forward curves have declined about 30 basis points on average. Combining the impact of current lower expected rates with our balance growth expectation of 5% to 7%, we anticipate a year-over-year decline of $80 million to $85 million so slightly worse due to rates, offset a bit by our balance expectations that fall slightly above the 5% scenario presented in May. Contemplating the current lower forward curves and looking beyond fiscal 2013, we still expect fiscal 2013 to be the bottom of the cycle in terms of the size of the year-over-year decline. Now I'll turn it back to Carlos to take you through the remainder of the forecast for fiscal 2013.