Jeff Stafeil
Analyst · UBS. You may go ahead
Great. Thanks Fritz, and good morning to everyone. Turning to our financial performance as Fritz stated in his remarks, Adient third quarter results were significantly impacted by operational headwinds in both Seating and Seat Structures & Mechanisms. Although, the SS&M business demonstrated sequential improvement for the second quarter headwinds within the seating segment intensified as we progressed through Q3. More on that in a minute. Turning to slide 10. Adhering to our typical format the page is formatted with our reported results on the left-hand side of the page and our adjusted results on the right side. We will focus our commentary on the adjusted results. These numbers exclude various items that we view as either onetime in nature or otherwise skew important trends and underlying performance. In the quarter, the largest of these special items related to an impairment charge of $52 million. As background and as Fritz mentioned a moment ago during the quarter the company committed to a plan to sell the building in Detroit previously designated to be our new headquarters, as well as our corporate airplanes. Accordingly, we have classified these as assets held for sale. As a result of this classification, we were required to write-down the value of these assets to fair value resulting in the $52 million impairment charge. Other adjustments include the coming Adient charges, restructuring related charges and purchase accounting amortization. These adjustments are detailed along with the bridge to our reported results in the appendix. Moving on adjusted EBITDA at $319 million fell $105 million year-on-year more than explained by a decline in operating performance. I’ll cover this in detail in a few minutes. Meanwhile, adjusted equity income for the quarter was down $4 million compared with the same period last year. When adjusting for the JV consolidation equity income was flat year-on-year. Finally, adjusted net income and EPS were down approximately 42% year-over-year at $136 million and $1.45 per share, respectively, as operational challenges are having a significant impact on the bottomline. Now let’s break down our third quarter results in more detail. Starting with revenue on slide 11. We recorded consolidated sales of $4.5 billion, an increase of nearly $500 million compared to the same period a year ago. Benefits of the Futuris acquisition and the China’s JV consolidation amounted to $250 million. Volume and pricing added just under $100 million. In addition foreign exchange had a positive impact of $141 million versus the same period of last year. The primary driver was the euro as it averaged $1.19 in Q3 versus $1.10 last year. Moving on with regards to Adient unconsolidated revenue growth remained strong. Unconsolidated Seating revenue driven primarily through our strategic JV network in China grew about 11% year-on-year. Adjusting for FX and the China JV that is now consolidated, sales were up about 8%, which is relatively in line with vehicle production in the quarter. Through the first three quarters of fiscal ‘18 sales on the same basis are up approximately 9% versus the 2% increase in vehicle production. Sales for unconsolidated interiors recognized through our 30% ownership stake in Yanfeng Automotive Interiors was up 6% year-on-year. When adjusting for FX sales were slightly down say about 1%. Moving to slide 12, we provide a bridge of adjusted EBITDA to show the performance of our segments between periods. The bucket labeled corporate represents central costs that are not allocated back to the operations. These core costs include our executive office, communications, corporate finance, legal and marketing. Big picture, adjusted EBITDA was $319 million in the current quarter versus $424 million last year. The corresponding margin of 7.1% was down approximately 350 basis points versus Q3 last year. Weakness in our Seating and SS&M business, primarily attributable to negative operating performance combined with a rise in net commodity costs drove the year-on-year declined. I’ll talk more about these segments in a few moments. Our positive SG&A benefits, call it $32 million more than offset approximately $23 million in growth investments, primarily related to higher engineering costs to support future sales growth. It’s important to mention consistent with comments made in previous quarters, a portion of the SG& A improvements made in the quarter should be viewed as temporary and certain of the near-term actions we’re taking such as extremely tight control over discretionary spending or taking down our bonus accruals will not be part of our run rate of the business going forward. Assuming we would be at plan or target performance anticipate that our SG&A expense would have been approximately $20 million higher for the quarter. Interiors recognized through our 30% ownership stake in Wi-Fi was flat versus last year’s Q3. Similar to last quarter we’ve included detailed bridges for both the Seating and SS&M segments on slide 13 and 14. Starting with seating on slide 13, adjusted EBITDA decreased to $344 million, down $69 million compared to the same period a year ago. The primary drivers between the periods include, benefits associated with the Futuris acquisition and China JV consolidation that occurred late last year contributed about $27 million, of which Futuris was approximately $15 million. Further benefits associated with SG&A savings initiatives along with our incentive comp production had a $20 million impact on the most recent quarter. Currency movements had an approximate $12 million benefit in Q3 versus the same period last year, but were offset by $12 million in commodity inflation net of price recoveries. Volume and mix benefited the quarter by about $4 million. However and unfortunately, these improvements were more than offset by a variety of factors. Most significantly, the business incurred a little over $90 million in operating inefficiencies during the quarter as it struggled with a variety of new launches. Unpacking this variance involves into three main categories. First, operational waste and freight accounted for just under half of the inefficiencies of approximately $40 million. Operational waste includes scrap and cost of poor quality. Second, the business incurred it’s deterioration in material margin where the difference between our price changes to customers versus the price changes we reached with our suppliers. This resulted in $28 million of reduced margin in the quarter. Finally, our remaining operating conversion costs were the costs we incurred to convert base material into finished product increased to $23 million versus last year. It should be noted that we would typically expect these three items to offset as operating productivity improvements year-over-year would be expected to offset pricing. That said, our operating teams are obviously working to reverse the current situation. The team’s first priority is to eliminate the operational waste and excess freight as these stabilize and, as Fritz said a moment ago, we would expect the team to start deliver -- to deliver on our normal continuous productivity improvement actions that have stalled as we struggle to deliver products. In addition to our operating performance, additional investments to support Adient’s future growth of $20 million also impacted the year-on-year results. This was primarily increased engineering spend including approximately $3 million in aircraft spending. And finally, but to a lesser extent, negative performance in equity income of approximately $9 million was realized in the quarter. Approximately, half of the decline is attributable to the consolidation of a previously unconsolidated JV in the fourth quarter of last year. In addition, our JV has increased engineering spent by approximately $5 million to support program launches. And finally, a small part of the decline relates to a slightly lower mix of business and higher margin products. For example, Ford volumes in China were down approximately 20% and could not be fully offset by increased volumes of domestic customers. One last point on Seating. One of the reasons we’ve moved to adjusted EBITDA is to provide more cash flow transparency and we’ll continue to do that by segments. Our CapEx for the Seating business was approximately $75 million in the quarter. In addition, we’ve included some historical metrics by segment in the appendix for your review and modeling. Turning to slide 14 and our SS&M segment performance. Despite continuing to improve sequentially for the past two quarters, adjusted EBITDA was negative $18 million or $49 million lower than Q3, 2017. The primary drivers between Q3 this year and last year’s third quarter include, first, the negative impact related to operating performance. These include things such as operational inefficiencies, premium freight, containment actions and a lower level of equity income. In total, this was $34 million headwind versus last year’s Q3. Important to recognize, sequentially versus Q2 of this year, the team is making continuous progress in reducing these operational headwinds. Premium freight within SS&M, for example, decreased $5 million compared with Q2 and operational waste improved $9 million sequentially. The team recognizes, we have a lot of work ahead of us, however, these results demonstrate stabilization, turnaround, actions implemented earlier and are gaining traction. We expect the positive trend to continue into the fourth quarter and into 2019. In addition to the operating performance, but to a much lesser degree, commodities FX and growth investments weighed on the quarter. In total, FX and commodities totaled about $8 million and our growth investments were approximately $3 million. And finally, the segment was negatively impacted by approximately $4 million as a result of volume and mix. Said a different may, the $50 million of higher sales compared to last year when adjusting for FX was detrimental earnings in the quarter. Regarding SS&M’s CapEx for the quarter, they spend approximately $63 million. Let me now shift to our cash and capital structure on slide 15. On the left hand side of the page, we break down our cash flow, adjusted free cash flow defined as operating cash flow less CapEx was $252 million for the quarter, compared with $42 million last year. The negative year-on-year operating performance was more than offset by positive trade working capital performance which benefited from the launch of our new accounts receivable financing facility by approximately $94 million, also increased dividends from our joint ventures and lower cash restructuring costs. Note that the increase in dividends is largely due to the timing -- is due to timing as our largest JV in terms of both profits and dividends paid its dividend in Q3 this year versus last year where paid it in Q4. When adjusting for the newly launched financing -- AR financing facility free cash flow for the quarter would have been $158 million as shown in the color box. Capital expenditures for the quarter were $138 million, compared with $115 million last year. As you can see in the footnote, we continue to break out CapEx by segment. On the right-hand side of the page, we detailed our cash and leverage position. At June 30, 2018 we ended the quarter with $378 million in cash and cash equivalents. Gross debt and net debt totaled $3.439 billion and $3.061 billion respectively at June 30, 2018. Q3 net debt was about $264 million lower, compared with our Q2 net debt. As a result of our cash balance debt level and operating performance Adient’s net leverage ratio at June 30, 2018 was 2.29 times. Now turning to slide 16, let me conclude with our thoughts on the remainder of fiscal ‘18. As you know we adjusted our guidance for a few figures in early June, but we did not update all our key metrics. While nothing has changed for those figures we did update, I’ll provide a more complete look now. Starting with revenue based on our performance to-date and our assumptions for foreign exchange, we continue to expect consolidated revenue of about $17.5 billion consistent with our expectations. With regard to adjusted EBITDA, and as Fritz mentioned earlier, we are on track to achieve approximately $1.25 billion for the year. Equity income which is included in the EBITDA guidance was adjusted down slightly, call it, approximately $380 million to account for current FX rates. Moving on adjusted EBIT should settle in at around $810 million. For modeling purposes given our increased growth investments depreciation is tracking at about $400 million. With regard to interest, dividend increase in rates and FX we have seen our interest expense run a bit higher and now project full year interest expense of approximately $140 million versus our prior guide of $135 million. Moving on to taxes, based on the geographic composition of our earnings and the lower performance we now expect in effective tax rate of between 5% and 7% for the year. Although, lower operating performance is driving a lower effective tax rate this year the lower level of profitability creates increased pressure to utilize certain deferred tax assets it has been established. Depending on the actual and forecast of future earnings, valuation allowances maybe warranted in the coming quarters. Regarding such evaluation allowance -- recording such evaluation allowance, could significantly increase our tax expense going forward, but wouldn’t have any immediate impact on our cash tax paid. Our net income and aligned with our expectations for our operating results and the lower effective tax rate, we’re expecting our adjusted net income will settle in the range of $535 million and $555 million. Based on year-to-date performance and actions to scale back expenditures, CapEx is now expected to come in at approximately $575 million in 2018. This is down about $25 million from previous expectations. Finally, with regard to cash flow, we continue to expect free cash flow between zero and negative $100 million for the year. Important to note, this excludes the impact of the recently launched accounts receivable facility. Before moving into the Q&A portion of the call, let me make a few comments on certain of the macro influences that are impacting the business, which have been factored into the guidance just provided. Starting with the positives, global automotive demand remains strong and as a result appears to be the quarter of current production levels and forecast, a good environment as we execute our self health initiatives. Unfortunately though, we continue to experience downward pressures from rising commodity prices, rising freight cost, uncertainty related to trade and volatility and foreign exchange. First in commodities, steel prices continued to escalate. As we mentioned on our last call, for Adient specifically imposed tariffs in the country exemptions from Canada and Mexico that expired on May 31st are not the big risks as very little of our North American steel is sourced offshore. Our primary risk is the rapid escalation of, sorry, the rapid escalation of prices at the U.S. mills. To put this into context prices have increased close to $300 per ton or 40% since January. Although, we have escalators and contracts in place to help offset these price movements, it’s important to remember a time lag, call it, a couple of quarters exist between the time we experienced the price increase and the reimbursements we received from our customers. Our team is working to mitigate this impact and revise some of our agreements, but their ultimate success and associated timing cannot be certain. Sticking with commodities, some good news is beginning to service in regard to TDI prices, which have fallen off their highs. However, with the start of the BIFFs facility in Germany, our excitement has tempered though as other chemicals that go into our foam operations such as MBI and Polyol remain at a tight supply. In addition to commodities, we are also managing -- we are managing rising freight cost driven by driver shortages and the full impact of recent legislation. Unfortunately, this does not appear to be temporary. As such, the team is focused on operational logistics and inventory management to limit and mitigate our exposure. And finally, we continue to monitor trade negotiations that are currently taking place. We’re hopeful that the U.S. and China can avoid the implementation of additional U.S. proposed duties, which if implemented would negatively impact the industry including Adient. The impact today of 301 duties is minimal. However, the next round of proposed duties is implemented it could result in the $5 million to $6 billion annual headwind. Outside to China, we’re also monitoring potential retaliatory duties that maybe imposed on the U.S. by various countries that ultimately could have a negative impact on the industry and Adient. As we gain clarity on the potential outcomes including the potential for any additional actions taken in the U.S. we’ll provide updates as appropriate. With that, let’s move on to the question-and-answers portion of the call. Operator, for the first question?