Earnings Labs

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)

Q3 2020 Earnings Call· Fri, Oct 30, 2020

$74.08

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the ADM Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Victoria de la Huerga, Vice President Investor Relations for ADM. Ms. de la Huerga, you may begin.

Victoria Huerga

Analyst

Thank you, Amy. Good morning, and welcome to ADM's third quarter earnings webcast. Starting tomorrow, a replay of today's webcast will be available at adm.com. For those following the presentation, please turn to Slide 2, the company's safe harbor statement, which says that some of our comments and materials constitute forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results. These statements and materials are based on many assumptions and factors that are subject to risks and uncertainties. ADM has provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC concerning assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in this presentation, and you should carefully review the assumptions and factors in our SEC report. To the extent permitted under applicable law, ADM assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events. On today's webcast, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Juan Luciano, will provide an overview of the quarter and important actions we are taking to meet our strategic goals. Our Chief Financial Officer, Ray Young, will review financial highlights and corporate results as well as the drivers of our performance and our outlook. Vince Macciocchi, Senior Vice President and President of our Nutrition segment, will give an update on our nutrition business and its future growth. Then Juan will make some final comments, after which they will take your questions. Please turn to Slide 3. I will now turn the call over to Juan.

Juan Luciano

Analyst · Seaport Global

Thank you, Victoria. Last night, we reported third quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.89, up from $0.77 in the prior year quarter. Adjusted segment operating profit was $849 million, up 11% year-over-year, and our trailing fourth quarter adjusted ROIC was 8.3%. Our strategic initiatives have continued to enable our teams around the world to demonstrate their expertise and skills. And I'm proud of how our colleagues are supporting customers and driving strong results. The team has done a great job handling the daily and sometimes hourly challenges that have come our way in 2020. That resiliency allows us to deliver outstanding results today while we simultaneously continue our strategic work to make our company better and advance our growth and transformation. Let me share with you some of our accomplishments. In our optimize pillar, our Ag Services and Oilseeds team continued its work to enhance returns, delivering another $100 million in invested capital reductions in the third quarter. Since 2017, Ag Services and Oilseeds has improved its capital position by exiting from no longer strategic assets, including 71 grain origination locations, 6 oilseed facilities, 14 Golden Peanut and Tree Nuts locations and 7 ocean-going vessels. We've also seen first-hand how our improvement initiatives have helped drive business continuity. In addition to the pandemic, in recent months, we've seen multiple hurricanes in the U.S. Gulf under the rage of storm that swept across the Midwest. Despite those events, thanks to our teams and our operational excellence, we have continued to serve our customers and fulfill our purpose without significant interruption. In our drive pillar, we are continuing to accelerate our 1ADM business transformation, expanding the deployment of our procurement, contract labor and sales and marketing modules, which are helping us drive efficiencies and growth and will provide us with a…

Ray Young

Analyst · Ben Bienvenu with Stephens

Thanks, Juan. And please turn to Slide #4. As Juan mentioned, adjusted EPS for the quarter was $0.89, up from the $0.77 in the prior year quarter. Excluding specified items, adjusted segment operating profit was $849 million, up 11%. And our trailing 4-quarter average adjusted ROIC was 8.3%, 255 basis points higher than our 2020 annual WACC. Our trailing 4-quarter adjusted EBITDA was about $3.7 billion. Our cash flows are strong as we generate about $2.3 billion of cash from operations before working capital for the first 9 months of the year. The effective tax rate for the third quarter was a benefit of approximately 13% compared to an expense of 19% in the prior year. Our Q3 tax rate was impacted by our debt retirement actions as well as the sale of our Wilmar shares and higher year-over-year Wilmar earnings and U.S. tax credits. Absent the effect of EPS adjusting items, our effective tax rate was approximately 11%. We expect our adjusted tax rate for Q4 to be similar to this adjusted Q3 effective tax rate. As we announced at various points during Q3, we've taken several actions over the last few months to both utilize and enhance our strong balance sheet. These actions were not about cash flow or liquidity as we had cash and available credit capacity at the end of the quarter of almost $10 billion. They were about creating balance sheet optionality for future transactions while maintaining a strong credit rating profile. We monetized a portion of our Wilmar investment through a block sale of Wilmar stock and issuance of bonds exchangeable for Wilmar shares at a future date. As we have indicated, we view our significant remaining Wilmar stake as strategic, and we do not have any intentions to sell additional shares. Leveraging our…

Vincent Macciocchi

Analyst · Seaport Global

Thank you, Ray. Slide 9, please. I'm proud of the team who have delivered in so many ways. When I reflect upon the growth we've made and the journey we are still taking, I keep coming back to our purpose, to unlock the power of nature, to enrich the quality of life. I think it's remarkable how these few words sum up not just what we do but why our work is so important. The global population is growing, and consumer behavior is shifting in ways we couldn't have predicted only 10 or 15 years ago. The scale of the change and the opportunity for ADM is enormous. Global sales of specialty ingredients across both human and animal nutrition are as much as $85 billion and growing at a rate of 5% to 7% per year. These specialty ingredients, which represent the majority of the nutrition portfolio aside from fee, go into the full array of consumer nutrition products for humans and animals, many of which are projected to grow significantly in the coming years. For example, the global market for functional beverages could be as large as $190 billion in 2024. The global dietary supplement market could be worth more than $77 billion in that same time frame. Global retail sales of alternative proteins are already a $25 billion market today, with a projected growth rate of 14% per year. Global retail sales of pet food are projected to grow at 4% per year, reaching $120 billion by 2024. These aren't just numbers. They're indicators of significant long-term trends in how people choose food, drink and other products, driven by a global population that cares deeply about health and sustainability. And based upon the portfolio, footprint, capabilities and talent we've built, no other company is positioned to meet these…

Juan Luciano

Analyst · Seaport Global

Thank you, Vince. And congratulations to you and the entire ADM team for another outstanding quarter. Slide 13, please. Across the enterprise, we are continuing to advance our work to enrich the quality of life and meet key needs for consumers around the globe. At the time of heightened concerns around food security, ADM's vast global value chain is helping ensure that countries and families can continue to put nutritious, delicious foods on the table. As consumers focus more and more on proactive approaches to health, we're expanding the frontier in groundbreaking functional ingredients and supplements for people with conditions like migraine and atopic dermatitis, and we're paving the way to a new world of precision nutrition personalized for every individual. And as sustainability becomes a key driver of consumer decisions and business success, we're playing a leading role in the transition to a low-carbon economy for our industry. We are committed to our purpose, and our team is continuing to deliver for our customers, our shareholders and all could depend on us. And that is why we are confident in a strong finish to 2020 and a positive momentum continuing through 2021. With that, Amy, please open the line for questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Eric Larson with Seaport Global.

Eric Larson

Analyst · Seaport Global

Congratulations on a really good quarter. My first question is really for Vince. Vince, thank you for that review of your operation. And I'm going back to Slide 11 and going to your complete pantry of ingredients and solutions from nature. So we've seen some pretty massive consolidation in this industry now the last several years with IFF making some very large acquisitions at extraordinary multiples. Can you give us just a little flavor for, if you look at the various categories where you've got your pantry, what your shares are in those areas, roughly? I know it's highly fragmented. Where additional opportunity might be available for you -- outside of your normal organic growth, I mean would there be some opportunities to strengthen your portfolio across those various sectors? And where do you think your biggest strengths are? And maybe where you could use some strengthening in those areas?

Vincent Macciocchi

Analyst · Seaport Global

Thank you, Eric. I think if you think about our business -- and maybe I'll start kind of where you finished in terms of some of our greatest strengths. I think our greater strengths are obviously the breadth and depth of the pantry coupled with our technical capabilities and providing solutions backed by science. I think you also marry that with the global consumer trends when you think about the focus on the microbiome, focus on plant-based foods, sustainability and good for you, and you think about clean label moving to clear label. Our portfolio is really well positioned when you think about our flavors business and the focus on natural and our continued growth in the mature market and as we expand our footprint into the emerging markets. Specialty ingredients, obviously, we have a dominant share as a key protein -- plant-based protein provider. And we're providing soy, pea and wheat from a plant-based protein perspective and really capitalizing on that global consumer trend. If you look at our Health and Wellness business, we have a fantastic portfolio, really focused on probiotics and postbiotics as well as fiber as well as vitamins as well as specialty oil, so a really complete portfolio across Health and Wellness. And then obviously in Animal Nutrition, we completed the acquisition of Neovia in 2019. Obviously, we've over-delivered against the synergy targets, but it's a global, robust business. It's really focused on, obviously, complete feed additives and ingredients, aquaculture, pet. So really moving that portfolio to realize synergies, grow organically and capitalize on our global footprint. So where is our opportunity? There's certainly opportunity to further expand in the flavors business into emerging markets. We're always looking at technology in our portfolio and geography, in the plant-based business and specialty ingredients. It's really making sure we're providing outside of the Americas and looking to enhance our footprint there. In Health and Wellness, it's really capitalizing on the microbiome and expanding our capability. Juan mentioned in his remarks that we're expanding our facility in Valencia, Spain. That will give us significant capacity increase to capitalize on our growing demand. And then on animal, I think our story is really one where we finish the integration, we grow organically, we margin up that portfolio, and we continue to combine all pieces of our portfolio and provide solutions backed by science.

Eric Larson

Analyst · Seaport Global

Okay. Great. And my follow-up question is really kind of -- is for Juan, and this is more of a general question. Juan, I think most of the people on this call are aware of the nice recovery in the global ag markets, et cetera. I think the question that we all have, and we've seen various fits and starts and stops and stall from the last several years. Can you address how you look at the sustainability of the recovery in these -- basically in the ag markets globally, aside from just the current strength that we're seeing? Clearly, it's sustainable in the early part of next year. But beyond that, do you -- can you give us your perspective on sustainability for the next let's say, 1 or 2 years or even more?

Juan Luciano

Analyst · Seaport Global

Yes, Eric, thank you. I think -- listen, I think I'm very proud, first of all, of course, of the way the team has been executed. And I think we have a track record of consistent execution on that so that -- from that perspective. Second, I think the important thing to reflect upon is that we have built the business over these few years, aligned to secular trends on food security, on health and wellness and on sustainability. And we see those trends being with us for the duration that I can see going forward. So when we look at our planning horizon, we feel very good about that, about achieving our 10% ROIC, and we're achieving our goals in earnings and reduction on invested capital. When we look at the -- even the issues that we're seeing today with the pandemic, the pandemic has basically increased or emphasized some of the trends that we have been already developing over time with the consumers. And you see governments more concerned about food security now and the ability to keep supplying food for the world. And I think that we are a key element in that. And our footprint and our ability to connect the areas of surplus with areas of deficit in the world is valued and is recognized and I think that, that will continue going forward. I think that everything that we're doing in terms of positioning our portfolio for healthier trends. We see the reaction on that. We see the reaction in plant-based proteins. We see the reaction in probiotics, but we see the reaction also on the snacking in functional foods. And all that is very strong in the ADM portfolio. And we continue to see the pool from biomaterials, from materials based on plant…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ben Kallo with Baird.

Ben Kallo

Analyst · Ben Kallo with Baird

So just you touched on ASF, but could you talk a little bit more about that and when we expect that to be a tailwind? Then my second question is just on the Wilmar and the liquidity from that. Where should we expect, I think, the investment to go and maybe a rank order there? And then third, we get -- we're hearing more and more all over the place about renewable diesel. Can you talk to us about your exposure to that trend as a tailwind?

Juan Luciano

Analyst · Ben Kallo with Baird

Yes. Thank you, Ben. So the first one, ASF. As we said, I think ASF, we've been following this story for several quarters. And I think that overall, it has developed as we predicted. So initially, with the big gap in protein in China that was supplemented by imports of proteins, and we saw that in the strength of crush margins. Now China has been able to control that. Now China is rebuilding their herd. Remember that herd was -- about half of the herd was decimated. So there is a big effort to rebuild that. As they rebuild the herd, they are going into more professional animal production. That has increased the rations. So -- that has increased soy meal, but that has increased corn. That's why you see so much pull from China from imported corn. At the same time, we have seen the poultry industry coming up in China to supplement a little bit the lack of pork protein that they have in China. So we've seen all that. We think that there's still probably a couple of years ahead of us for China to recover the herd plenty. And of course, you heard their statement about trying to go for self-sufficiency. So I think they're going to build that. So we're going to see continued strength in crush margins. And we feel that, that's driving demand. Again, as I said before, the professionalization of the animal husbandry has brought more soybean meal and corn into the ration, and we will continue to see better feeding and better nutrition in that sense. So again, nothing surprising maybe to what we expected. And remember that in the previous quarter, we talked about our positive view of crush margins over the second half of the year. And that's the…

Ben Kallo

Analyst · Ben Kallo with Baird

Yes.

Juan Luciano

Analyst · Ben Kallo with Baird

Yes. And listen, we participate that as a supplier of feedstock. You see the tightening that this has generated because, of course, there has been stable volumes and very healthy margins of biodiesel that we've been supplying. And also, we've seen the tightness that, that generated as food service has recovered in the oil part of the consumption. So I think that we follow that with interest. It's another leg that adds to the strength of crush margins. So in the short term, it's a very positive tailwind. We have to see how that industry evolves. There are many factors in this industry. There are many announcements that they are all positive. That will put some pressure in feedstocks, of course. And we're going to see how that announced, how many states or countries adopt these, how many of these investments are actually come through into real plans and then how many other feedstocks are allowed here to come. Today, the environment of feedstock is a little bit of a rarefied environment because we have less of restaurants creating cooked oil and then we have a little bit of less production of -- in the ethanol side. So -- but we have potential to bring canola into these that we are -- it's a good carbon index also. So there are a lot of dynamics. But I think short term, we are participating just as a supplier of soybean oil and that we are profiting from that in the crush margins that we are seeing.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ben Theurer with Barclays Bank.

Benjamin Theurer

Analyst · Ben Theurer with Barclays Bank

Yes. Congrats on the results. I tried to get you back on schedule, ask only one question, and that one is for Vince. So when you nicely showed how you've basically increased the nutrition business since the bigger acquisition some 6 years ago, and if we look at it on a trailing basis, we're basically at about $550 million in operating profit, call it, somewhere halfway through of where you want to get. But we've clearly seen a significant acceleration in the last 2, 3 years. So how should we think about your path to the $1 billion going forward? Is this going to be a 6-year time to get there? Is it going to be accelerated just because of the flexibility? And as Juan just said, he's going to give you a little bit more capital and opportunities as you have a long list for bolt-on M&A. So how should we think about the growth performance M&A versus organic? And when do you think that medium-term target can be achieved?

Juan Luciano

Analyst · Ben Theurer with Barclays Bank

Yes. Maybe if I start, and I'll let Vince complete that with some more granularity. But when we look at our strategic plan, and we plan in 5-year increments, so the last one we did in 2019, so 2019 to 2024, we see our $1 billion OP that Vince described being achieved in that planning cycle. So let's say, by 2024, if you want to say it that way. In order to get there from here, you can see the nutrition approximately needs to grow around 15% per year compounded to get to that number. So that number is excluded any major M&A. That number is in the current strategy, which is organic growth and bolt on. So about the ratio that you're seeing right now going. So maybe then I pass it to Vince to provide more granularity on where that growth comes from.

Vincent Macciocchi

Analyst · Ben Theurer with Barclays Bank

Thank you, Juan, and thank you, Ben. I think it's important if you just take a pause and see where we're at. If you look on a year-to-date basis through 3 quarters, we're at $448 million, whereas we did $419 million all of last year. So to Juan's point, it's a good growth story and a good growth trajectory from an organic basis. And what we've done is we've really taken the approach of let's grow organically. Let's expand our customer base. We've made significant investments in our key account management program and our approach to the customers and really expanding that base on a worldwide basis. As I mentioned in my remarks that we've invested over $6 billion in this business. So yes, we've done platform deals that we've integrated and then grown organically, and we've done a series of bolt-ons. But additionally, we've invested in our own facilities. We built a greenfield pea production facility in Enderlin. We built a soy protein complex in Campo Grande in Brazil. We've done acquisitions in the citrus space, the vanilla space, the food-based space, the bioactive space. And so obviously, we're harvesting those investments right now and continuing to take those businesses and grow those businesses and add them to our portfolio of capabilities. So I think that's what gives us some optimism. And we look at our win rate in the marketplace as well. And we look at our pipeline of opportunities. Again, when you take these capabilities and the size of the pantry which we depicted earlier, and you marry those with the technical capabilities we have on a worldwide basis from a science and technology perspective and a creation, design and development perspective, that translates to a very high win rate against customer opportunities that actually launched in the marketplace. Therefore, we have an organic growth road map as Juan identified within the time horizon of the strategic plan that will get us to that $1 billion aspiration. And again, we'll continue to search, as Juan indicated earlier, for smart bolt-ons and perhaps platform deals if and when they make sense.

Juan Luciano

Analyst · Ben Theurer with Barclays Bank

And then we're going to keep pushing Vince to get there faster.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Robert Moskow with Crédit Suisse.

Robert Moskow

Analyst

Juan, the environment looks great. I totally agree. I'm trying to think of things that might derail that situation. One investor asked me about Argentina and the possibility of devaluation. And would that be a catalyst for farmers selling, crushers crushing and leading to a glut in the market that might cause crush margins to fall? Can you comment on that possibility?

Juan Luciano

Analyst · Seaport Global

Yes. Well, so I'm not going to be on record predicting a devaluation in Argentina, Rob, since I would like to go back one day, but let's put it this way. The world is tight today. There is a big demand, as I said, from China. And even if -- let's run your scenario in which Argentina devalue and there is an incentive for the farmer to sell. Then may be only like 5 million tons that they're going to throw into the market. To be honest, the market needs that, and the market will absorb that very quickly and move on. So I don't see that as a big source of derailment. I don't know what the source of derailment could be. But I don't worry that much about that. I think, again, the market is tight enough today. Brazil's crop is a couple of weeks late. So there is a La Niña effect that we still need to see what's going to do to yields. And although I think that Brazil, we have a big crop, I don't think we're going to have 140 million tons crop given the start and the conditions that there are. So I think that at this point in time, I worry more about where the beans and where the mill is going to come from later on than actually if Argentina will flood the market. We don't see that as an opportunity. If you hear -- I mean if you -- unfortunately, I don't have the opportunity to be back in Brazil or Argentina at this stage. But as I talked to Brazil, Brazil is an environment of -- in an environment of food inflation and imports right now, where they're bringing imports from Paraguay, from Uruguay for beans. So I think you see the need, and we see it with a customer base that is very uncovered, to be honest. So these are people that are buying hand to mouth for strong demand. And it's our role to supply that and to cover that. But as I said, we worry a little bit more about making sure that the flow from the farmers continue so we have the material to continue to execute and to feed the world.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ben Bienvenu with Stephens.

Pooran Sharma

Analyst · Ben Bienvenu with Stephens

This is Pooran filling in for Ben. I just wanted to ask you how you're thinking about your dry mills. Does it seem like it makes more sense to just keep them offline until post-COVID? What do you think is best for that business? And can you talk about any growth you have or could see in USP grade alcohol?

Ray Young

Analyst · Ben Bienvenu with Stephens

Yes, it's Ray here. Well, first of all, we've done a very good job managing the stranded costs of our 2 temporarily idle dry mills. And I think also with some additional idlings that have occurred in the industry. I think the industry has done a very good job in terms of balancing supply and demand in the ethanol industry. And that's part of the reason why when you look at inventories right now, EIA count on stocks are below 20 million barrels. And that's contributed towards, frankly, a reasonable ethanol margin environment that we've seen. And that's contributed, frankly speaking towards good results that we've seen both in our Starches and Sweeteners segment, which has the wet mills, and then also for VCP, which has the industrial-grade alcohol of our Peoria facility. So we believe that as we kind of enter the winter season, which you know seasonally driving miles come down during the winter, and so therefore, from an ADM perspective, we believe we're probably going to keep these dry mills temporarily idled as we go through the low season of gasoline demand and hence ethanol demand. That's the responsible thing to do. Then -- but when we look forward into the new year, as I indicated in the last call, we're going to look at the data, right? And so we're going to look at the data with respect to how the U.S. economy is recovering. We're going to look at the data in terms of how driving miles are going to seasonally recover as well. We're going to look at the data in terms of the industry utilization rates for ethanol because some of these ethanol mills that we've seen idled, they're going to be permanently idled. Some of them -- a lot of them have…

Pooran Sharma

Analyst · Ben Bienvenu with Stephens

Got it. And then also, could you just maybe provide a little bit more color on the prospects for USP grade alcohol?

Ray Young

Analyst · Ben Bienvenu with Stephens

It's been a good news story, right? I mean we started the year with 1 plant, our Peoria plant, 85 million gallons a year. Demand shot through the roof for industrial-grade alcohol. And so we actually combination ran the plant hard plus we've expanded the capacity of that plant. So we'll be up to 100 million gallons very shortly. And then secondly, we also made some investments into another facility, Clinton, and we're going to actually expand production of industrial-grade alcohol in that facility as well. So by the end of this year, our run rate in terms of industrial ethanol production would have increased by over 50%. In addition, the quality of the ethanol that we produce is very, very high. I mean you've probably read many stories about hand sanitizers in whereby the quality of the alcohol within the hand sanitizers is poor. And frankly, a lot of them have been pulled out of the market. The customers are looking for a high-quality industrial alcohol. And that's what ADM is able to deliver. That's the reason why we've expanded capacity in order to meet the demands of these customers.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Zaslow with Bank of Montreal.

Kenneth Zaslow

Analyst · Ken Zaslow with Bank of Montreal

As you see the oil seed markets developing, is there any thoughts that there may be some additional capacity being built anywhere that would be alarming? Or any thought that you would think that would come about? And what are your plans? Is it more of a debottlenecking procedures? Or would you think that there would be some thought that you might find some capacity expansion opportunities?

Juan Luciano

Analyst · Ken Zaslow with Bank of Montreal

Yes, Ken. At this point in time, again, it's a very positive environment from a margin and demand perspective. So I think that we're all looking through readiness and everything, how to expand capacity with as little capital as possible, of course, to debottleneck every facility. We are very prudent in thinking about new staff that cannot be integrated. I think we're very proud of the integration of our facilities that help a lot the integration with grain, the integration with refineries. So at this point in time, going to the earlier part of your question, we don't see any major announcement that worries us. I think that in reality, the industry needs some of that extra capacity that we heard about it. And I think that we continue to have our plan. As I said, we put together our 5-year plan from '19 to '24. That includes some expansions to maintain our position there. But this is a very disciplined market in which we follow demand and we follow what our customers and the final consumers are doing. So we are looking at that, and we have flexibility. I don't think this is an industry that goes like other industries that maybe build a lot of capacity, and then it takes many years for them to build, to grow into that capacity. This is an industry that tend to grow in manageable chunks. And I think that we've been a player into that, and we know how to do it. So I don't worry that much about that, not at this point in time, Ken.

Kenneth Zaslow

Analyst · Ken Zaslow with Bank of Montreal

I know the question was asked, but I'm going to ask you a little differently because not that I didn't like the answer, I'm just trying to figure out a little bit more quantification. How can you frame the opportunity that's associated with renewable diesel to your margin structure or to your earnings potential? How incremental is this? Is this a noticeable difference? Is this a -- hey, it's kind of like a cherry on an ice cream Sunday? Or is it kind of the ice cream? How do you think about it?

Juan Luciano

Analyst · Ken Zaslow with Bank of Montreal

So I think -- listen, I think the numbers if -- let's say that even if you take 70% of the announced capacity happened to be through, it's a significant number. It's not -- so we're going to be a player there. Of course, we're going to be a player in -- for a while there. We have very good facilities in biodiesel that are integrated with our refineries, with our crushing plants. So in that sense, they are more secure than others in the fight for soybean oil, if you will. But I think as we said it -- as I said it at the onset, I think that we need to see how this develop because this is the fight for decarbonization of the economy, if you will. And there are many things coming into play for the long-term perspective, whether it's electric vehicles and other solutions. Remember, we were not discussing renewable green diesel a year ago. And there may be another solution coming back, another thing coming back later. So I think that we are all being prudent, not because we see any long-term bad, but also because we realize there are many people and many technologies looking at how to decarbonize the economy and transportation and all that. So I think it's a positive. I think we're going to participate in that. I think that if everything that is announced or, as I said, 70% comes, I think it's going to be significant and meaningful. But I think at least for the next few years down the road, this is going to bring tightness to the oil market, which is going to increase associate margins, and we have seen that happening and will increase -- and will keep crush margins robust as they are today. So -- but reading much further than that, forecasting in this energy area is prone to mislead people because technology is coming very rapidly into the area. And technology tends to have this breakthrough impact, if you will, as renewable green diesel is having it right now, but we need to see the duration of all that.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

Steven Haynes

Analyst · Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley

This is actually Steve Haynes on for Vincent. The operating environment clearly firmed up nicely for you guys. I wanted to just come back to kind of some of the self-help things you have going on. And if you got kind of $500 million to $600 million of controllable benefit this year, do you have any kind of target as we look into 2021, so what a like-for-like number could look like?

Juan Luciano

Analyst · Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley

Yes. I would say we probably will provide more granularity on -- we are going through our own planning season. So we're going to provide more granularity at the Q4 call on 2021 targets. But I think that if you've been following us, you see that there is a certain cadence to what we bring to the table. And these programs are not a one-off, when we are engaging things like readiness, which is a key component of that or harvesting or improve. We're working on our portfolio. Hopefully, we're going to have less improved going forward and more harvesting. But -- so the mix of that is going to change somehow. Some things don't repeat themselves. For example, thankfully, like the storms that we have in 2019 didn't reproduce in the same damage in 2020. So some of those things may come up and down. But there are some solid trends. You can see in readiness, those programs are very robust. So we're going to build the algorithm on the things that we can control. And we're probably going to come again with more granularity in the next earnings call. But as I said, I think you -- I think investors have gotten used to our cadence on that. And we tend to have a very robust portfolio of things that we can control. And so it's not going to be a shocking array of possibilities. You're going to see possibilities around harvesting, around some improvements and around readiness. And the numbers may fluctuate here and there, but that's the gist of it.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs.

Adam Samuelson

Analyst · Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs

So maybe the first question is just coming back to the balance sheet and capital deployment. And Ray, I think you were -- we have the Wilmar proceeds. You did the kind of debt, kind of optimization actions or -- last quarter. Can you help us think about kind of the -- your very heavy moving into that commentary on balance sheet optionality. Can you talk about kind of what you think the dry powder is from an M&A perspective right now and how that pipeline would look? And what we should be thinking about if there's any immaterial M&A that would kind of just help us frame kind of how -- what -- how big are we thinking about?

Ray Young

Analyst · Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs

Yes. Just to again remind people, when we did the Wilmar equity block transaction, secondary offering, we were creating effectively balance sheet flexibility by improving the capital base of our company. So it was not a liquidity move. We had ample liquidity. It's basically helping to further deleverage the balance sheet. And so -- I mean, as we indicated, our intent -- after funding the Neovia acquisition earlier this year, our intent was to basically get our balance sheet back into the low 2s, when you think about metrics, get down to the low 2s by the end of the year. And so these actions are designed to help us get to the low 2s. And I feel good that with the actions that we've done, we're going to get there towards the low 2s. And so that creates balance sheet flexibility on our part. And as we indicated, that gives us the flexibility to pursue bolt-on acquisitions. And as you know, Vince always has a list of opportunities that he's looking at. And our responsibility is to make sure that we have the balance sheet in order to kind of support it when these opportunities materialize. And then also share repurchases, I mean, to the extent that the equity markets make a correction in the future, due to whatever reasons, macroeconomic issues. And we have the balance sheet also to pursue opportunistic share repurchases when we think that there is a significant value gap relative to our intrinsic value. So we're doing this. We've done that. We pursued some debt repurchases as well, debt tenders. And just to remind you, earlier this year, we issued some long bonds when the credit markets were extremely volatile. I mean, at that juncture, we did not know what was going to happen…

Operator

Operator

Your final question comes from the line of Tom Simonitsch with JPMorgan.

Thomas Simonitsch

Analyst · JPMorgan

So maybe one last question on the $1 billion nutrition operating profit, and apologies if I missed this, but what range of revenues do you need to meet that target? And in the near term, when do you expect the top line in nutrition to return to growth?

Vincent Macciocchi

Analyst · JPMorgan

Thanks, Tom. Well, the top line in nutrition is growing. When you look across the broader nutrition business on a year-to-date basis, where we've grown at approximately 6% FX adjusted. So we have a very aggressive growth plan from a revenue perspective. And obviously, there are some puts and takes. There's been some headwinds related to COVID affecting some of our sectors as well as some FX issues. But at the same token, we've realized significant revenue growth in certain areas of our portfolio. When you look at the Flavors business, primarily in North America and Asia Pacific, we look at our Specialty Ingredients business, primarily in North America, South America, in the growth of plant-based meat alternatives. We look in Health & Wellness. Obviously, very important growth across that space, really in terms of the bioactives, our specialty oils, our fiber portfolio. So with our fixation on customers, we're growing top line revenues. It's one of the key tenets of our organic growth opportunities in our plan. And then look at animal nutrition. So obviously, there's some things that have affected aquaculture and some other FX things there related to the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso. But at the same token on a year-to-date basis, we're up 7.5% FX adjusted. So we do have a very aggressive plan to drive the revenue. We're focused on revenue. I mentioned pipeline earlier. That's a key barometer to how we measure our opportunity for future success and to drive revenue growth. So it's a heavy emphasis. And obviously, at the same time, while we're growing revenue and we're growing our businesses across the portfolio, if you look at our margin performance, it's increased as well. So we're focused on price, we're focused on profitability, and we're focusing on margining up all of our businesses across the portfolio.

Thomas Simonitsch

Analyst · JPMorgan

And do you have a revenue level in mind getting to that $1 billion operating profit?

Vincent Macciocchi

Analyst · JPMorgan

Yes. I think there's a couple of things. I mean when I spoke at the outset, when you talk about growth in the overall market of 5% to 7% per year, we certainly need to be in that range or outpacing that range. And obviously, we continue to marry with our operating profit performance. As Juan outlined, we're approximately -- to continue on our current trajectory, 15% per year gets us to that within the time horizon of this plan.

Operator

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Victoria de la Huerga for closing remarks.

Victoria Huerga

Analyst

Thank you for joining us today. Slide 14 notes upcoming investor events in which we will be participating. As always, please feel free to follow up with me if you have any other questions. Have a good day, and thanks for your time and interest in ADM.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. On behalf of ADM, thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.