Ray Young
Analyst · Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs
Yes, you're right. I've never really talked about mark-to-market on corn oil before in prior earnings calls. And frankly, the last time we actually saw this was about 10 years ago. So, what happened was as ethanol plants slowed down around the country then as you know corn oil is a byproduct of ethanol production. And so, we actually saw a reduction in terms of supply of corn oil. At the same time as Juan indicated earlier, we actually saw a significant demand for fried snacks like chips. So actually demand for corn oil actually went up. And so, we actually start seeing a divergence between soybean oil prices and corn oil prices, which again, historically tracked very closely with one another. And so, as corn oil prices, and this really occurred – started occurring at the end of March, as corn oil prices moved up, we have a forward book of sales contracts in corn oil and some of those sales contracts are actually indexed to bean oil, right. And that's just because of history in terms of how – how these prices have correlated. So when we actually mark the book at the end of March for the forward sales contracts that were indexed to bean oil. We actually had to take a mark-to-market loss on that. Now I do expect, as I indicated in my comments that part of this mark-to-market impact it should reverse, it could reverse as we kind of move through the year, due to two factors. One, with higher corn oil price, that means the corn product credit will actually go up as we kind of move through the year, which means net corn costs compared to where we were at the beginning of the year of the should actually come down. And then secondly, as we move through the year as ethanol production actually starts ramping up due to gasoline demand of returning, and as the shelter-in-place orders come off and maybe chip them in and start to come back off a little bit, then you should actually start seeing the historical correlation start returning back again. So that's the reason why I feel that it's kind of move through the next 12 months. Probably in the back half of the year, I should expect about half of the negative mark-to-market to come back in the form of other lower net corn cost, or mark-to-market reversals. As Juan indicated, I think, for the second quarter I do probably expect that the negative mark-to-market to kind of – it's not going to be the same magnitude of $50 million, but we may have some slightly negative mark-to-market in the second quarter as well in Carb Solutions.