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Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)

Q4 2018 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 5, 2019

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to the Archer Daniels Midland Company Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on a listen-only mode to prevent background noise. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Victoria de la Huerga, Vice President Investor Relations for Archer Daniels Midland Company. Ms. de la Huerga, you may begin.

Victoria de la Huerga

President

Thank you, Jack. Good morning and welcome to ADM's fourth quarter earnings webcast. Starting tomorrow, a replay of today's webcast will be available at adm.com. For those following the presentation, please turn to slide two, the company's Safe Harbor statement which says that some of our comments constitute forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance, and financial results. These statements are based on many assumptions and factors and are subject to risk and uncertainties. ADM has provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC concerning assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in this presentation, and you should carefully review the assumptions and factors in our SEC report. To the extent permitted under applicable law, ADM assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events. On today's webcast, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Juan Luciano, will provide an overview of the quarter and the year. Our Chief Financial Officer, Ray Young, will review financial highlights and corporate results, as well as the drivers of our performance. Then Juan will discuss our forward look. And finally, they will take your questions. Please turn to slide three. I will now turn the call over to Juan.

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Victoria. Good morning, everyone. Thank you all for joining us today. Last week we were in France welcoming our Neovia colleagues to ADM as we closed on that truly transformational acquisition for our Animal Nutrition business. This morning, we're speaking to you from our WILD Flavors facility in Heidelberg Germany. It's a state-of-the-art complex and we're excited to talk to our colleagues here about the great work they are doing to serve customers and grow our flavors and system business. This morning, we reported fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.88, up from $0.82 in the prior year quarter. Our adjusted segment operating profit was $860 million. The team did an excellent job to deliver stronger year-over-year profits in a volatile global environment in the quarter and completed an extremely impressive 2018 overall for ADM. Throughout the year, we focused on executing our strategy and pulling the levers under our control. The result was a year in which we delivered: full year adjusted segment operating profit of $3.4 billion, 26% higher than 2017; adjusted EPS 44% higher year-over-year; strong operating cash flows, up more than 40%; and fourth quarter trailing ROIC of 8.3%, 200 basis points above our annual WACC. Given those extremely strong results, earlier this morning we announced a quarterly dividend increase of $0.015 per share, or 4.5%. Our Q1 dividend is our 349th consecutive quarterly payment and an uninterrupted record of 87 years. 2018 was a year in which, regardless of market conditions, we continued to execute improve and grow, resulting in a range of impressive accomplishments. In our optimize pillar, we divested our Bolivian Oilseeds business, took important steps to optimize our U.S. Origination footprint and engineered significant turnarounds in our Global Trade and South American Origination businesses. In our drive pillar, for…

Ray Young

Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Juan. Slide 5 provides some financial highlights for the quarter. As Juan mentioned, adjusted EPS for the quarter was $0.88 up from the $0.82 in the prior year quarter. Excluding specified items adjusted segment operating profit was $860 million, up $67 million or 8% from the year-ago quarter. Our trailing four quarter average adjusted ROIC closed the year at 8.3%, 200 basis points above our 2018 annual WACC a significant improvement from the year-ago period and generating positive EVA of more than $550 million. The effective tax rate for the full year 2018 was approximately 12% and includes large favorable effects of U.S. tax reform and the 2017 biodiesel tax credit recorded in the first quarter along with certain discrete tax items netting to a favorable $74 million. The effective tax rate for the fourth quarter of 2018 was a positive 2%, which includes a favorable true-up of the transition tax. The effective tax rate for the fourth quarter of 2017 reflects a large credit due to the initial implementation of U.S. tax reform. Looking ahead, we're expecting a full year 2019 effective tax rate to be in a range of 17% to 20%. On Chart 18 in the appendix, you can see the reconciliation of a reported quarterly earnings of $0.55 per share to the adjusted earnings of $0.88 per share. The adjustments include a significant non-cash pension settlement charge related to the transfer of pension liabilities that we discussed in the third quarter earnings call. Slide 6 provides an operating profit summary and the components for our corporate line. Other business results were a negative $14 million, but improved versus the prior year period which was impacted by significant unfavorable captive insurance underwriting performance. Current quarter losses were driven by intercompany insurance settlement relating to sorghum shipments…

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Ray. Please turn to Slide 14. So we have closed on an excellent 2018 for ADM. Now we're already well into 2019 and we remain focused on pulling the levers under our control to deliver another great year. We start with improving performance in certain businesses. Our team performed extremely well in 2018, but there were some select businesses that did not deliver against our expectations which means, there are more opportunities to improve our overall results. We have already taken aggressive actions to help those businesses around -- turn those businesses around. For example in the midst of industry overcapacity and compressed margins, we've announced a rationalization of our peanut and tree nut origination and processing footprint. We also made some organizational changes in that business to ensure it is structured properly to succeed among new market realities. Across the company, we've identified other businesses that we believe can do better. We have established specific year-over-year improvement targets for each of them. We'll rigorously monitor their performance throughout the year and take further actions, if necessary to ensure that they meet our high expectations. We're anticipating $150 million to $200 million in benefits in 2019 from our efforts to improve performance. The second area that will help deliver strong profits and returns in 2019 is Readiness. 2018 was the year in which we launched Readiness and embedded the change within the whole organization. 2019 is when Readiness accelerates as we take our current [ph] bank of 525 prioritized initiatives and deliver projects and cultural change that taken together will permanently change, how we run our business, creating a lasting structure under which we will be more efficient and more effectiveness -- effective. Readiness will improve performance by helping us isolate problems and implement effective solutions, help to…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Thank you. Your first question comes from the line of Eric Larson with Buckingham Research. Your line is open.

Eric Larson

Analyst · Buckingham Research. Your line is open

Yeah. Good morning, everyone.

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

Good morning, Eric.

Ray Young

Chief Financial Officer

Good morning, Eric.

Eric Larson

Analyst · Buckingham Research. Your line is open

A couple – Juan, just a little follow-up just on your last comment on harvesting growth investments, obviously, you've got Neovia that you just closed on a few days ago et cetera. Can you give us a little bit more thoughts on Neovia? Will this be contributing immediately to earnings or is this – will it be accretive let's say in your two – how should we be thinking about the recent acquisition here?

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

Yes. So, we're very excited about this. I think as I said before Neovia established us as an overnight leader in the Animal Nutrition business as we combine both our businesses. The way to think about it in terms of the quantification of the impact, Eric is, if you think about my announced $150 million coming from growth initiatives, about 50% of those $150 million about $75 million belong to Nutrition. So they're going to be accrued to Nutrition. And in Nutrition, Neovia will be the largest of the acquisitions that are coming to compose those $75 million. So, with that you can get a feeling for how much will Neovia contribute and we'll start in 2019.

Eric Larson

Analyst · Buckingham Research. Your line is open

Okay. Okay good. And then obviously you had an amazing year in Oilseeds and obviously, you've got more difficult comps going forward. But I think you also were able to build a pretty strong book I think in -- believe in the first half of this year based upon some crush margins that we saw throughout the second half of last year. Can you give us a better flavor for how you think the Oilseed division should look for the full year?

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

Yes sure. Listen, I think that as you said it before, probably the crush environment in 2019 will not be as spectacular as maybe 2018. But we still believe given global demand, the strength that we have around 3% outside China that this business will still maintain crush margins well above the average that we have seen over the last five years. On top of that, I think you need to consider about all the incremental contributions that our business will get from the Brazilian acquisition Algar, the SoyVen joint venture in Egypt, and some of the expansions that we have done to our own capacity and improvements in that capacity. On top of that, I would say you will have to add the turnaround we're planning to see in the peanut and tree nuts business in 2019. That was a little bit of an unexpected headwind in 2018. We're not planning to have the same in 2019. So, overall, I would say probably a little bit softer than 2018, but still a very solid performance by the Oilseeds in 2019.

Eric Larson

Analyst · Buckingham Research. Your line is open

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Vincent Andrews

Analyst · Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open

Thank you and good morning everyone. Juan, just on the corporate expense, I mean, it's getting pretty sizable compared to the overall profitability of the business. And I'm just wondering did the centralization of it versus of allocation to the segments, I mean, what are sort of the pros and cons to doing that? Maybe I'm a little bit more focused on the cons of maybe centralizing it and not allocating it by segment doesn't sort of -- could potentially send wrong signals in terms of capital allocation investments in those businesses. So, how are you thinking about it?

Ray Young

Chief Financial Officer

Yes, I think -- Vincent, it’s Ray here. I think one of the important initiatives on Readiness is this aspect of getting towards common global processes and standardizing our activity. So, over the course of 2018, we did centralize more of the purchasing activities, the procurement activities, right? So, we took some of the activities out of the businesses and centralized it. Same thing for marketing activities. And so therefore, it's actually important as part of our whole Readiness initiative to actually get these groups together in order to kind of drive the standardization and the common processes. So, therefore, the -- part of the increase year-over-year is due to this type of centralization. The other part of the increased corporate cost is what we talked about is our investments in R&D, investments in information technology, the business transformation. Even though they're spending, we do view these things like investments, right; in terms of better the company for the future. And so it's really -- those are the two main drivers in terms of year-over-year costs. When we actually look at our core central staff cost, they’ve actually gone down year-over-year, right? So, I mean, normally when people think about firm, you think about core costs and those costs are actually being driven down. So I think that we're trying to drive down that costs, take some of the savings, there's some shift in terms of some costs moving towards corporate as we centralize activities, and we're investing more frankly in terms of the innovation, R&D, and business transformation.

Vincent Andrews

Analyst · Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open

Okay. Thank you. And just to follow-up. In the quarter in Oilseeds, were there any mark-to-market reversals?

Ray Young

Chief Financial Officer

The net impact on mark-to-markets in Oilseeds for the quarter was not material. So, therefore, normally we would call out if it was something above $50 million. The fact we're not calling out anything indicates that it was not a material impact for the quarter.

Vincent Andrews

Analyst · Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open

But it could have been $49 million.

Ray Young

Chief Financial Officer

It wasn't material.

Vincent Andrews

Analyst · Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open

Okay. Thanks very much, guys.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Adam Samuelson

Analyst · Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open

Thanks. Good morning everyone.

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

Hi, Adam.

Adam Samuelson

Analyst · Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open

Hi. So I wanted to go back to some of the pieces on 2019 that you laid out make sure that I'm thinking about this properly. So I believe you called out $150 million tailwind from some of the growth investments in M&A that you've done. You talked about recovering $150 million to $200 million from some of the operational challenges at Decatur and the nut processing that you experienced in 2018. There's about an $80 million or so headwind on interest expense, if I was doing that right, $20 million, $40 million headwind on corporate. The biodiesel tax credit, if it doesn't come back, that's $120 million headwind year-on-year. And the tax rate is up a little bit.

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

Yes.

Adam Samuelson

Analyst · Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open

And so after that which the net still modestly positive at the net income line, the question is kind of how much do you net realize on the cost savings relative to kind of broader cyclical dynamics in oilseed crush, ethanol, and Origination. Is that the right framework?

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

Yes. I think that's the right algorithm. So what we're thinking is you have the margins, the ups and downs of every year and then we have the things that we can control. And we laid them out and I think you repeated them very well. It's improved performance, which is $150 million to $200 million. It's the Readiness activity, which is $200 million to $250 million. We have rolled into Readiness all our previous operation and excellence activities. So we're not going to have that bucket anymore. It’s part of this Readiness. And then we're going to have the $150 million from all the accretion of growth investment that we have recently done. So you take that minus the headwinds that you described plus or minus your view of the market conditions in 2019 and that's what we consider. Still that despite maybe some modest reduction in crush margins versus the previous year, we expect that we're well positioned to grow profits in 2019.

Ray Young

Chief Financial Officer

Yes. And Adam don't forget then the Other segment. Okay? And this year was burdened by a lot of underwriting losses. We're assuming 2019 to be more of a normal year. So I gave guidance of $120 million in Other versus this calendar year was more like a $58 million number. So don't forget that delta as you kind of build up the model as well.

Adam Samuelson

Analyst · Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open

Okay. That's helpful. And then so just maybe going into some of the underlying kind of businesses' cyclical dynamics a little bit. On the crush margin side, I mean, still strong. I was just trying to make sure, I mean, where we were in 2Q and 3Q with board crush that was $1.50 plus relative to board crush that's been hovering around the $0.90 to $1 since November. I'm just trying to -- is it just Europe is better soft seed Brazil? Just help me think about the different geographies and how that plays into what you see on the board crush, which suggests a big headwind in the middle of the year.

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

Yes. We continue to see Adam a strong utilization in North America. We have a good book through Q1. We've seen gross margins $30 to $35 per ton in Q1. So utilization rates continue to be high. We continue to export meal and domestic off-take continues to be robust. Actually our customers are reporting -- I mean, if you talk to the poultry customers are reporting that they believe that poultry demand has not peaked. And they see through low pricing and some of the new retail options that they're being offered right now that we're going to continue to grow per-capita consumption. So we're optimistic there. In canola, in the U.S. margins are 25 to 45 maybe the dollars per ton for Q1, and we have profitable export oil flows there. So if you think about Europe, in Europe markets are at the carry. So customers are a little bit more hand to mouth. So maybe we don't have in Europe the same book forward than we have in North America. But mid-proteins meals seems to be in good demand from Europe itself, but also some are replacement in China. So that's supporting grape seed meal prices. So in general, margins are near $35 per ton in Europe. If we go to South America there is a wide range in Brazil where we have some $10 to $15 per ton crush margins growth in export facilities and where we have maybe $25 to $30 per ton in gross margins in facilities that are geared toward domestic market. Maybe domestic market facilities has a little bit better ownership of beans. And we have domestic meal premiums, but also some opportunities to export meal while Argentina still got to their harvest. Paraguay we're facing a little bit of smaller crop in Paraguay maybe 10%, 12% lower because of the drought there. So we expect to run about in the high 80s in terms of utilization there. So, maybe a little pressure there. My understanding is that crush margins have improved recently in China for Q1. They are about something between $10 and $15 per ton. So that's kind of going around the world a little bit on the crush side.

Adam Samuelson

Analyst · Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open

I really appreciate all that color. I’ll pass it on. Thanks.

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

Okay. Thank you, Adam.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Ann Duignan

Analyst · Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Your line is open

Yeah, hi, good morning.

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

Good morning, Ann.

Ray Young

Chief Financial Officer

Good morning, Ann.

Ann Duignan

Analyst · Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Your line is open

Maybe two questions, Juan. First we've kind of missed the export opportunity now for the season for U.S. soybeans to China. So could you talk about what that damage has done, what it might do and what are the structural now that at least Argentina is back producing more than it did last year? And then secondly, we're just talking again about Argentina on the crush side. What would you anticipate they'll do? Will they export more beans? Will China pull more beans from them? Or will they export more meal which they generally do? I'm just curious what drives is there.

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

Yes. So, I would say regarding the U.S. exports as I think Ray mentioned in his prepared remarks, we were able -- thanks to our Global Trade group, but also our destination marketing group to offset in last Q4. Probably 70% of the volume that we were thinking China was going to take part with corn exports that grew significantly year-over-year and part by sending it to either our own Crush in Europe or other destinations maybe Thailand and other places. So that again boots on the ground in destination marketing was very helpful to move those beans around. In our scenario planning, if you will for 2019, we are expecting at least the trade dispute with China either resolved during the year in the trade aspects, whether we continue to discuss other issues with China later on. But we think that the trade will be part of the solution during 2019. So we're still counting with maybe smaller than other years, but still sizable exports from the U.S. in Q4 from soybeans. That is our predominant scenario at this point in time. The second part of your question, sorry, Ann?

Ray Young

Chief Financial Officer

Argentina.

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

Oh, Argentina and whether we're going to export beans. So I think -- first of all, this is going to be the full season of Argentina operating without a DET. So it will be interesting to see how they behave whether they are a little bit more disciplined seller out there. I think there's still Argentina's year to sell more meal. And so I would expect that Brazil or the U.S. will take the brunt of the export of soybeans and Argentina will export the meal.

Ann Duignan

Analyst · Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Your line is open

Okay. I'll live it there and get back in queue. I appreciate it.

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Ann.

Operator

Operator

You next question comes from the line of Heather Jones with The Vertical Group. Your line is open.

Heather Jones

Analyst · Heather Jones with The Vertical Group. Your line is open

Good morning.

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

Good morning, Heather.

Heather Jones

Analyst · Heather Jones with The Vertical Group. Your line is open

Thank you. I just had a follow-up question on the operational issues you guys had in 2018, specifically on Decatur and lysine. So you all talked about those issues meaningfully impacting Q4. So one wondering if that's been resolved. But the second part of that is the explosion you had earlier this calendar year like -- so when should we start to see the giveback of Decatur normalizing?

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

Yes. So Heather, I think you need to think about the Decatur process as a revitalization process if you will. Decatur is a plant that traditionally has been the low-cost operations for us. And so as such, we have put a lot into Decatur. It's a very integrated complex, but is also a very complex, complex if you will. And so in 2017 we have outages related to electrical infrastructure. And in 2018 we've reduced the unplanned outages because of that by 90%. So we made significant progress. Now we are -- continue to revitalize some of the equipment in the facility with planned outages this time to improve the reliability of the plant. This effort of course will yield long-term operational stability and especially at high utilization rates. That's what we try to do normally from this plant very high. I think the issue on lysine is slightly different in which lysine we introduced a lot of new technologies in both fermentation and downstream processes, basically to improve the cost position. And we've seen already evidence of those improvements. The problem is we need a stable source of dextrose from the corn plant. So lysine is receiving a little bit of the shocks of the planned outages that we're having in Decatur as we try to fix Decatur. So I will say you're still going to see some of that in this quarter and then they will start tapering-off and we should be completely out of all this by the second half of the year and you will see the improvement. But the impact in 2018 was significant. It was probably in the tune of $30 million to $40 million in each of the businesses in Carbohydrate Solutions and Nutrition and we expect that number to be significantly reduced for 2019.

Heather Jones

Analyst · Heather Jones with The Vertical Group. Your line is open

Okay, okay. Thank you. And then going back to your comment about soybean meal demand, you mentioned that you're expected to be -- I thought you said up 3% for the year and you mentioned China in that statement. Is that your estimate based upon where soybean meal is from a price positioning basis, but also taking into consideration the impact of ASF in China?

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

Yes. No my comment was 2.5% to 3% outside China, outside China. China, it's difficult to call at this point in time. I think that -- we hope that the ASF situation is getting a little bit better. We've seen the government lightening up a little bit in some of the bans in transportation of pigs -- between the provinces. So hopefully that's an indication that they see this as slightly getting better. But as you know it takes an animal 18 20 months to get to breeding stages. So the rebuilding of the herd is going to take a while. So we expect that to drive -- in the short term to supply the demand of China to drive imports of either pork or chicken. And we think that that's going also support the demand in the other place where we produce. So greeting the exact demand in China is going to be difficult how do they come back from Chinese New Year? I mean how much of a psychological impact all these ASF situation has had in the Chinese consumer? We will have to look at that.

Heather Jones

Analyst · Heather Jones with The Vertical Group. Your line is open

So just to push back on that a little bit. What is driving your lower view on the two -- on the demand outside China because 2.5% to 3% is a pretty significant slowing? So what's driving that view?

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

We've been close to customers and all that, and so that's kind of where the team is assuming at this point in time the demand to be.

Heather Jones

Analyst · Heather Jones with The Vertical Group. Your line is open

Okay, all right. Thank you.

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

You’re welcome.

Operator

Operator

You next question comes from the line of David Driscoll with Citi. Your line is open.

David Driscoll

Analyst · David Driscoll with Citi. Your line is open

Great, thank you and good morning.

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

Good morning David.

David Driscoll

Analyst · David Driscoll with Citi. Your line is open

Wanted to ask a little bit more about Project Readiness. I believe Juan, the goal is $1 billion in savings in two years. And I think you said on the call here that 2019 will deliver $200 million to $250 million of incremental savings for year 2019. Is that to then say that the subtraction then would be that all the balance of this shows up in 2020?

Ray Young

Chief Financial Officer

Yes. Just so -- so for clarification, so the $1 billion run rate by the end of 2020 is a run rate right? And as we've talked out not necessarily everything on the run rate will flow through the bottom line, because there's going to be some offsets in terms of either inflation or just reinvestment of some of the savings. What Juan indicated in terms of $200 million, $250 million savings in 2019 represents the year-over-year improvement from Readiness. So therefore, this would be additive towards the 2018 results and that reflects the combination of the run rate savings that we're going to generate this year, but also some of the run rate savings that we generate at the end of 2018 flowing through and net of inflation here. So this is a net number that we're talking about in terms of improvements in 2019 compared to 2018 from Readiness just for clarification.

David Driscoll

Analyst · David Driscoll with Citi. Your line is open

What's the remaining net number then after you complete 2019? So I'm getting lost here between this gross number of $1 billion and the net number that you're calling out to the bottom line. What's the residual that would be left over for 2020 and 2021?

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

It's probably in the range of $0.5 billion.

David Driscoll

Analyst · David Driscoll with Citi. Your line is open

Okay. It's still very sizable. Okay. Okay. That's very helpful.

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

And I think you have to say – David you have to see we have a quick start in 2018 with the $300 million, because there were a lot of ready-to-implement opportunities that actually require less capital or less changes in processes. So you can – you do more of those at the beginning. Then 2019, we'll have more foundational things that are related to processes or technologies. And then you're going to see again an acceleration as all those projects are implemented into 2020. So I think that's a little bit the cadence. We did the easy ones at the beginning. Now we're doing the more fundamental ones that take a little bit more work and then you're going to get the benefit of all that infrastructure into 2020. That's why the $300 million, $200 million to $250 million and $500 million kind of cadence if you will.

David Driscoll

Analyst · David Driscoll with Citi. Your line is open

Very helpful. Last question for me is just a clarification on some of the answers you guys gave to a few other questions as it relates to China and the potential for a deal with the U.S. and China on trade. Is it – all the numbers that you've given on the call is the base assumption that we get a trade deal with the Chinese by the end of February? Is that the base assumption when you laid out all these various numbers? And then, can you give us some sensitivity of, if we don't get a trade deal what happens to your thoughts Juan on the outlook for the ADM business? How much volatility could we or should we expect, if the outcome does not occur for the base assumption?

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

Yes, David. So, our assumption is not that the trade deal is resolved now in the first quarter. We have it more like half of the year. So we're thinking, if there are any benefits come they will come in Origination in the last quarter of 2019. I will say, whether – the different scenarios whether we have a resolution or not, it depends on what kind of end deal we – the both – or end state both governments end up into this. If these are portrayed trade war or complete dispute, I think it's going to be bad for everybody. I think it's going to be bad for the global economy, and then it's difficult to forecast what's going to happen. I would say in a scenario in which we continue like this which is a negotiation and with trade especially in agricultural products could be used as a token, if you will or as a contribution to – towards a bigger agreement. I think that we can handle the different scenarios. In a scenario in which we have no agreement probably beans in the U.S. are continued to be cheap. Crush margins will continue to be high, like maybe they were last year and we will have lower exports of soybeans from North America. In a scenario in which we get an agreement and China try to buy more agricultural products from the United States, we'll probably have higher origination -- elevation margins in Q4. We'll probably have a hopefully some ethanol flowing into China that could help ethanol margins and we'll probably have a slowing down of crush in North America, or at least, a reduction in Crush margins versus 2018. So, we are in the middle of kind of those scenarios and we manage those scenarios. And I'm not saying they are neutral to us, but we can manage through both of them and see still us maintaining our forecast for 2019.

David Driscoll

Analyst · David Driscoll with Citi. Your line is open

Great. Thank you. I'll pass it along.

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

Okay.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Robert Moskow

Analyst · Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse. Your line is open

Hi, thank you. This is more of a modeling question. But I think you guided net interest expense. Is it going to be up $200 million year-over-year, is that correct?

Ray Young

Chief Financial Officer

I think we indicated that we're going to be $100 million per quarter, so $400 million for the calendar year. That's what we're seeing that should be for 2019.

Robert Moskow

Analyst · Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse. Your line is open

Okay. Am I adding the difference correctly though? I mean you had only $200 million in 2018 because I think that's the math isn't it? So, it's $200 million incrementally year-over-year of interest expense net?

Ray Young

Chief Financial Officer

We were higher in 2018. We're actually -- I think we're higher than that. I think we're just -- we're going to be higher, but I think it was about $40 million or something like that. But we can just follow-up with you on a one-to-one afterwards.

Robert Moskow

Analyst · Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse. Your line is open

Okay. Maybe I'm modeling this wrong. But what I'm really trying to get at is you have higher interest expense. Does the operating income from your acquisitions offset the higher interest expense? And really -- and what does that mean for dilution in 2019?

Ray Young

Chief Financial Officer

No it does. It does. I mean -- and so it more than offsets in terms of the impact. So we can follow up one-on-one with you on the incremental year-over-year on a managerial basis.

Robert Moskow

Analyst · Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse. Your line is open

Do you have an operating income number for how much the acquisition's at in 2019?

Ray Young

Chief Financial Officer

Well, I think Juan was talking about growth in general right? It was going to contribute about $150 million. And while that…

Robert Moskow

Analyst · Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse. Your line is open

Okay. All right. I’ll go offline. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Piken with Cleveland Research. Your line is open.

Michael Piken

Analyst · Michael Piken with Cleveland Research. Your line is open

Yeah, hi. I was wondering if you guys could provide us a little bit more of an update on how high fructose corn syrup contracting is going and your expectations for 2019?

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, sure Michael. Good morning. Listen, contracting is done. Of course, we started earlier the process last year and I would say we finished with volumes and margins overall consistent with last year. So we've been able to hold margins and volumes in general. Of course, there were some pickup of both year-end losses there up and down. But in general I would say consistent with 2018 for both margins and volume.

Michael Piken

Analyst · Michael Piken with Cleveland Research. Your line is open

Okay, great. And then shifting over to Origination. Could you give us any idea in terms of how much more room there is for growth in terms of your destination marketing volumes and what the cadence might look like over the next couple of years there? And which markets you're targeting? Thanks.

Ray Young

Chief Financial Officer

Yes. I think the team continues to look for more opportunities. It's just, all the numbers have grown dramatically, more than doubled over the past five years. I think the rate of increase that you're going to see going forward volume-wise is going to be probably lower in terms of the rate of increase, because we've gotten to a lot of the markets that we are initially targeted. But clearly, they're still markets. For example, in Southeast Asia, in parts of Central America, parts of Middle East that we still view, there's opportunities for further growing that business. So I would say there's still going to be growth, although, not at the same rate that we've seen in the past few years.

Michael Piken

Analyst · Michael Piken with Cleveland Research. Your line is open

All right. Terrific. I'll pass it on.

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Michael.

Operator

Operator

You next question comes from the line of Ken Zaslow with Bank of Montreal. Your line is open.

Ken Zaslow

Analyst · Ken Zaslow with Bank of Montreal. Your line is open

Hey, good morning, everyone.

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

Good morning, Ken.

Ray Young

Chief Financial Officer

Hey, Ken.

Ken Zaslow

Analyst · Ken Zaslow with Bank of Montreal. Your line is open

Two questions. One is, Juan, in the opening comments you said that you improved your Origination in the U.S. What did you do? And what was the process to which you did that?

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

Yes. We did several swaps and closure of elevators, just adjusting our footprint basically to where our production is and making sure that we have the right elevator tributaries to our export facilities or plants, so normal pruning and improvement of that. But we also grew our North American fertilizer distribution business, our stevedoring business. So many, many good things have been doing, the Grain guys in the U.S., also more digital tools, better marketing, thanks to the -- even providing better marketing tools to the farmers. But I will say, specifically to the footprint, I mean, we normally -- we have like, I mean, 200 buying stations. So normally there is some churning and I think the team was very aggressive in making sure that we shut down the ones that we needed to shut down and we move personnel to others that maybe had more volume opportunities.

Ken Zaslow

Analyst · Ken Zaslow with Bank of Montreal. Your line is open

My second question, it starts out as an observation, but it'll probably lead to a question. One is, if you think about your competitors in both high-fructose corn syrup and crushing, you made two interesting observations. One is, your risk management in South America on Crushing saved you and it was successful. And then, the last question you answered -- asked and answered was, the way that you think about your high-fructose corn syrup margins is that the pricing was actually fairly successful and that you're able to continue to do that. That is both in contrast to your competitors. So the question that I'm asking is, is there a process that you undergo that's differentiated than your competitors? And would you actually benefit from a greater sizable asset in either parts of the world?

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

Hard to know how our process compares to our competitor. Of course, I think one of the big advantages that I always pride ADM for having is, first of all, a great team, but also I think the fact that we keep the company relatively tight. I mean, before the acquisition of Neovia, we were a steady 1,000 people, which we handle about $60-something billion of revenue, help us to not only the agility but the sharing of information I think. Every Monday morning we have a risk meeting, where, like, 20 or 30 people are in that goal. And I think that these are people that work very well together. They know what they do very well. And in general, you know us, we try to hedge our margins, maybe to do some basis trading. But fundamentally, we try to leverage our asset base, because we believe the asset base of a company like ADM is irreplaceable, so we take advantage on that and that's where we make the money. In terms of, we would like to get bigger anywhere I think that our objective is always trying to get better. And I think that as we get better we could be bigger one day. But I think that the most important thing through Readiness and everything we do is that we are very honest. And despite we have a very good 2018, we're still not satisfied. We probably left a couple of $100 million on the table on things that we should have done better and Readiness is tackling that is how do we continue to get better before we get any bigger. So, even from a capital allocation perspective you heard us doing Neovia and we did Florida Chemicals and we may conclude that maybe another small deal that we could be negotiating here or there, but in general 2018 was a year of pausing in terms of our M&A and actually consolidate all these get our returns from all these, and again continue to think about getting better versus getting bigger. I think when we get better eventually we will get bigger, because we will be the best operators of assets out there.

Ken Zaslow

Analyst · Ken Zaslow with Bank of Montreal. Your line is open

Well, you're starting to differentiate yourself. Well, well done. Thanks.

Juan Luciano

Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes the Q&A portion of the call. I would now like to turn the call back over to Juan Luciano for closing remarks.

Victoria de la Huerga

President

Hi. It's Victoria. Thank you for joining us today. Slide 15 notes some of the upcoming investor events where we'll be participating. And as always, please feel free to follow-up with me, if you have any other questions. Have a good day. And thanks for your time and interest in ADM.

Operator

Operator

This concludes the Archer Daniels Midland Company fourth quarter 2018 earnings conference call. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.