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Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)

Q2 2015 Earnings Call· Tue, Aug 4, 2015

$74.08

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to the Archer Daniels Midland Company Second Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on a listen-only mode to prevent background noise. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference call, Mark Schweitzer, Vice President, Investor Relations, for Archer Daniels Midland Company. Mr. Schweitzer, you may begin.

Mark Schweitzer - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thank you, Stephanie. Good morning, and welcome to ADM's second quarter earnings conference call. Starting tomorrow, a replay of today's call will be available at adm.com. For those following this presentation, please turn to slide two, the company's Safe Harbor Statement, which says that some of our comments constitute forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results. These statements are based on many assumptions and factors that are subject to risk and uncertainties. ADM has provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC, concerning assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in this presentation. And you should carefully review the assumptions and factors in our SEC reports. To the extent permitted under applicable law, ADM assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events. On today's call, our Chief Executive Officer, Juan Luciano, will provide an overview of the quarter. Our Chief Financial Officer, Ray Young, will review financial highlights and corporate results. Then, Juan will review the drivers of our performance in the quarter, provide an update on our scorecard, and discuss our forward look. Finally, they will take your questions. Please turn to slide three. I will now turn the call over to Juan. Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone. Thank you all for joining us today. This morning, we reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.60. Our adjusted segment operating profit was $724 million. Adjusted ROIC of 9% was 240 basis points above our cost of capital. Our second quarter results demonstrate the strength and value of our geographic and business portfolio diversity. In Corn, domestic and export…

Operator

Operator

Certainly. Your first question comes from the line of Farha Aslam with Stephens. Your line is open.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open

Hi, good morning. Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning, Farha. Ray G. Young - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Good morning, Farha.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open

Could you just walk us around the globe for global crush margins, one? Clearly, soy crush margins are very, very strong. How will ADM position itself for that and can that be adequate to offset the weakness in softseed margins? Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes. So, margins in North America continued to be very, very good; very strong domestic demand. And if you remember, we announced earlier in the year that there are two facilities in the U.S., where we have added switch capacity to soybean. So, that's helping us to offset a little bit the weakness that we expect in softseeds. South American margins continued to be solid. European margins were very solid in soybeans in second quarter. We took advantage again of our swing capacity and we maxed the soybean crushing capacity in Europe. We've seen now a little bit more softness as more South American soybean mill is arriving. And in China, we saw some recovery of that. It's not where it used to be at the beginning of the year, but it's much better than last year. So, overall, we see a strong continued demand and we foresee good crushing margins for the rest of the year.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open

That's helpful. And are you concerned about Argentine capacity coming back online this year or early part of next year? Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Listen, I think that at one point in time we'll have to deal with that; it's predicated in many factors at this point what the farmer will do in Argentina. There are upcoming elections and all that. But we are fairly bullish given the domestic demand in the U.S. and the global demand that continues to grow for soybean mill.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open

That's helpful, thank you. And just one follow up. On Ag Services, in your prepared remarks you'd highlighted that you expect a strong performance in the second half from that business due to a good U.S. crop. Could you just share with us kind of what you've seen so far from the farmers as they've prepared for harvest, and kind of what you think your elevator utilizations are going to be and how that's going to affect earnings going forward? Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes. So obviously, Ag Services' first half was softer than what normally is the second half. We saw it last year. It doesn't surprise us that much. If you look at the performance year-to-date for Ag Services, it's in line with the first quarter last year. So as last year, as the U.S. comes into the harvest and it becomes more competitive in export, we plan to move a very strong harvest through all our facilities. So we expect a very strong second half. We expect the U.S. to become more competitive in export; we haven't been so far. But we expect that that demand to come to our elevators very fast and being able to increase elevation margins towards the end of the year. So, at this point, we are very bullish second half for Ag Services earnings.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Adam Samuelson - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Yes, thanks. Good morning, everyone. Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning, Adam. Ray G. Young - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Good morning, Adam. Adam Samuelson - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Maybe the first question in ethanol, and Juan, I heard you express some confidence that the margin outlook would improve from here, and I guess I'm trying to reconcile. The supply/demand with exports where they are seems reasonably balanced, although it's not clear stocks are actually going to draw as you move into the second half. But with the sharp decline in oil prices, how do you see – do you become incrementally concerned about the pricing of ethanol relative to gasoline, both domestically and overseas just keeping that margin kind of contained over the near term to medium term? Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Listen, we have to separate the analysis in certain businesses. From a demand perspective, we continue to feel very good about ethanol. As I said before, domestic demand with low gasoline prices got increased 3% and that pattern should continue with the normal seasonality between summer and winter in the U.S. Export demand continues to be very solid in those countries that are already customers and we have many, many new countries trying to become new customers, and our team are out there trying to develop those markets. So, the issue always become the – in this relatively new industry, what's happened with the supply. And the supply has been strong so far during this year because we have a really mild start of the summer from…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Driscoll with Citi Research. Your line is open.

Cornell R. Burnette - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · David Driscoll with Citi Research. Your line is open

Good morning, Juan. This is Cornell Burnette on with a few for David Driscoll. Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, Cornell.

Cornell R. Burnette - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · David Driscoll with Citi Research. Your line is open

All right. All right. Just wanted to give a few on ethanol. Just wanted to see what was your take on where export rents would be at the end of 2015. It appears to us that the number could be something greater than 1 billion gallons. And so putting that together with the fact that you're seeing somewhat of an oversupply currently in the ethanol market, just was wondering kind of what prevents margins from continuing to be soft if that is indeed the case? Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. We expect this balance to be like $1.8 billion. I think I said it before when I answered to Adam in the ethanol. It's difficult to call it in the short term. In the short term, there are risks to our forecast. Certainly, Brazilian ethanol could be coming into the U.S., but we continue to see market being developed outside the U.S. and the U.S. domestic market being robust. Consider these and I think we said it before, Cornell, there are out there at least 6 billion gallons of MTBE capacity that we're working very hard to replace and this product, again, ethanol is the most sustainable and the lowest cost octane enhancer. So I like to be in a positioned in a product that is very sustainable and lower cost and their alternatives. So there is a big market out there. And here we're going to go through ups and downs through all these regulations. Again, I said it before, it's relatively new industry, an industry that has started in 2007. You need to go through phases of consolidation. We're going to have credit capacity, some producers will become better producer, more cost efficient that will push some of the marginal producers into more troubled water. That will to a certain degree modify the industry. So we're watching this industry development. But at this point in time, we continue to be very excited about the potential we find in our own plants to improve our competitive advantage, and the potential for this market to grow in front of us.

Cornell R. Burnette - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · David Driscoll with Citi Research. Your line is open

Okay. And then just a follow-up, I mean, over the remainder of 2015, we're looking at, on the futures market, petroleum price is under $50 a barrel and there is some concern that there might be some oversupply into the market. When you talk about kind of the ethanol profitability perhaps strengthening going forward from what you saw in the second quarter, was that predicated on us seeing some type of rebound in petroleum and that kind of what levels of petroleum do you think you can get there? Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. At this point in time, I'd refrain from forecasting oil for obvious reasons. But I would say, in the current environment, when I make this comment, adding the framework of the current oil prices and the current corn prices, if you will. So I'm not forecasting that they're going to go anywhere.

Cornell R. Burnette - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · David Driscoll with Citi Research. Your line is open

Okay, very good. Thank you. Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Cornell.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse. Your line is open. Robert B. Moskow - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Hi, Juan and Ray. Just in general, it looks like the first half came in below internal expectations for the year. And judging from what you're saying that the mark-to-market trading benefit would only be $25 million in third quarter, it just looks like the year as a whole is going to be below what your internal expectations might have been. And I just kind of want to get a sense of that from you. Is there still a chance that you can hit your internal targets for the year as you set them? Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. Let me walk you through the different businesses, Rob. Oilseeds is way ahead of last year, and we continue to see upside in Oilseeds, granted we come in against the strong comps that we had in Q3 and Q4 last year, but Oilseeds is coming very strong on very strong demand. So that's ahead of last year and that should continue to be over the year. Ag Services, as I told you, is on line for the first half. And last year, we had a second half that allowed us to deliver in the range of $850 million to $900 million. And we see, this year, again the possibility to be in that range, if we can repeat the second quarter, the second half. And with these kind of crops, we have the potential to do so. So I will say those businesses are on par or ahead of last year. WFSI is having very good performance, will hit within the range. And so that an addition of…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Piken with Cleveland Research. Your line is open.

Michael Leith Piken - Cleveland Research Co. LLC

Analyst · Michael Piken with Cleveland Research. Your line is open

Yeah. Hi, good morning. Just wanted to dig a little bit deeper into the Wild Flavors/Specialty Ingredients segment and maybe you could talk about the cadence of earnings for the back half and what type of growth rate we might be looking for from an EBIT standpoint or a revenue standpoint as we look ahead maybe to some of the outer years? Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. Well, sure. So there is some seasonality in this business, as you know, because there is a lot of juices and there is a lot of product that are sold in the summer. So the second quarter is a slightly higher from a seasonal perspective than Q3, if you will. Margins continue to be very strong in the high-teens EBITDA margins for this business. The ingredients growth that we continue to see are in the range of 3% to 5%, and when you take natural products, natural flavors products are more in the 5% to 6% range. We feel very excited about the reaction that our customers have had to our product mix into these segments, and we've been expanding the customer base to make our business even much more robust. Just to give you some example, the number of customers driving 80% of sales have increased by 47%, which show the robustness of our pipeline going forward. And as I said in my prepared remarks, the pipeline of new wins or projects that compose our revenue synergy portfolio have had a quantum leap of 75% from Q1 to Q2. So all the prospects, all the products are on trends. Those trends are strong and customers are reacting very well to innovating with us. So we feel very good about it.

Michael Leith Piken - Cleveland Research Co. LLC

Analyst · Michael Piken with Cleveland Research. Your line is open

Okay. So I mean, I guess just as a follow-up, I mean do you have any quantification? And I understand the seasonality part, but in terms of like do you have a revenue target or, in terms of next year, what could that $0.10 to $0.15 maybe turn into from an accretion standpoint? Thanks. Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. To be honest, Michael, this is such a new business for us and this is a combination for us of nine different businesses that we grouped together. So we don't have a strong comp, so we don't have a lot of history to – and since a lot of this growth are the product of combination of new synergies, of new solutions for customer, it is difficult to put a target. We know we are ahead of schedule in terms of synergies and we know we're going to deliver the accretion next year; we just haven't developed the robustness of comps going forward since this is a new business for us.

Mark Schweitzer - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Operator? Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Operator, do we have more questions or...

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Your line is open

Hi. Good morning, everyone. Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Morning, Ann. Ray G. Young - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Good morning, Ann.

Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Your line is open

Hi. My question is more kind of big picture. There was some press releases over the weekend that the Chinese government is considering changing its corn pricing policy and that if it did do so, the world might be awash in Chinese corn. Just curious if you've heard anything about that and what could that do to your business if they did indeed change their pricing policy? Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. There are two things, Ann, that everybody says bring excitement to our lives in the grain business; one is weather, the other is government intervention. So we are very used to follow that, to track that. It always presents opportunity for discontinuity. Obviously, we hear the rumors that China is finding more difficult to sustain these subsidies to the farmers, but we don't know at this point in time. And I'd rarely bet against the Chinese government; they seem to be very prudent and very strategic about their moves. So we're just paying attention. Obviously, a release of inventories or a drop in price could mean a decline in prices for corn. That would probably bode well for our business.

Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Your line is open

Okay, I appreciate that. And not to beat a dead horse on the ethanol side, but you were very clear at the end of Q1 that you're running the ethanol business for profits, not for volumes. The tone of your comment seems to have changed a little bit. Am I reading too much into that or are you just running for volume now, not returns? Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: We don't make a statement for the full quarter, so we don't commit to the position. It's very much tactical based on what we see in the supply and demands and what we see in the unplanned capacities and the weather and all that. So the team remains very flexible. I guess what we wanted to say is we're trying to maximize earnings into our business. It depends, during the quarter we may move from one position to the other. So I wouldn't make a statement for the full quarter at this point.

Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Your line is open

Okay. I'll get back in line and take my questions offline. Thanks. Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Ann.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Zaslow with Bank of Montreal. Your line is open.

Kenneth B. Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · Ken Zaslow with Bank of Montreal. Your line is open

Hey, good morning, everyone. Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Morning, Ken. Ray G. Young - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Morning, Ken.

Kenneth B. Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · Ken Zaslow with Bank of Montreal. Your line is open

I had just two questions. One is on the Ag Services, what are the keys that we have to be looking for, for you to have the recovery? Is it the basis, is it the farmer moving and what are the concerns that are associated with when the farmer is going to be selling and how do you think about it? And then my second question is, can you give us an update on the cost savings programs? Are you finding more – is it coming in as expected and just give us an update on that as well? Thank you. Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. So one key thing in Ag Services is the rate of exports and how competitive the U.S. is. Obviously, the U.S. have shown some competitiveness out of the PNW this year, but still the Gulf continues to be second or third in terms of bids versus other origin. So that will be probably the key aspect that will drive our earnings in the second half. But every year, the Ag Services business find different ways to make money. Sometimes it's through better usage of our footprint, sometimes different carriers, sometimes it's through export. So we will adjust; a large crop gives us a lot of opportunities. The second point was? Ray G. Young - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Cost savings. Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, the cost savings program, yeah. We are, at this point in time, a $125 million run rate of that promise of $500 million in five years. I will say, Ken, that we have probably identified enough opportunities that we know already that we can implement, that are close to $380 million to $400 million of those $500 million. And since we are one year into this five-year program, we feel that we are ahead of schedule. So we continue to find – you heard me saying about our intensifying focus on dry mills. The wet mills are larger and older. So rightfully so, when we started this program, we focused a little bit more energy there because we felt the opportunity was bigger. Now, when we look at the difference we have in cost between the wet mills and the dry mills, we feel that there are opportunities there, whether it's enzymes or yields or things like that. So we continue to find ADM is a large company, and as much as we cut cost, we continue to find new technologies that bring us new promises.

Kenneth B. Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · Ken Zaslow with Bank of Montreal. Your line is open

Thank you very much. Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

And your final question comes from the line of Sandy Klugman with Vertical Research. Your line is open.

Sandy H. Klugman - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst · Vertical Research. Your line is open

Thank you. Returning to ethanol, you highlighted E15 as a positive driver, and I know the near-term is hard to forecast. But I think flex-fuel vehicles currently about 6% to 7% of the total vehicle fleet. I was wondering where you see this going over the long term and how quickly do you see us getting there? Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. When we started with E15, we said that we were expecting the implementation to take about five years. And I think, at the end of the day, we would like to thank Secretary Vilsack for making available some funds to invest in infrastructure. The industry has coalesced around that and is gathering money and is putting together projects to be able to participate in this program. And at the end of day, there's going to become a tipping point, and I don't know exactly when to call it, but we think that by 2017, 2018, this will become a more meaningful part of our fuel supply, and we feel very good what that will do to supply-demand balances for the ethanol industry.

Sandy H. Klugman - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst · Vertical Research. Your line is open

Okay, thank you. And then just to shift to biodiesel, could you tell us how you're thinking about the near-term to medium-term outlook? And do you see further opportunities to reduce your dependency on biofuels in Europe, or have you already done what you needed to do on that front? Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: No. I will say, first of all, in the medium term, situation is tough for biodiesel. In the absences of a more clear RFS, biodiesel will struggle, no doubt. I will say in our strategic intent to reduce the dependency on biodiesel, we are just getting started. You heard us about AOR, which is an acquisition we did in Belgium on a bottle oil producer. So there are three elements to our program. One is to crush more soy in Europe that produces less oil. The second is to grow our share in food industry, which AOR is one of those elements. And the third one is to increase the use of oil into industrial uses, and that's growing as well. But I will say you're not going to feel an impact until probably 2016 from our perspective.

Sandy H. Klugman - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst · Vertical Research. Your line is open

Yeah. That's helpful. Thank you. Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

I would now like to turn the call back over to Juan Luciano for closing remarks. Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Stephanie. So thank you joining us today. Slide 15 notes our upcoming investor events. As always, please feel free to follow-up with Mark if you have any other questions. And have a good day, and thanks for the time and interest in ADM.