Walter Johnsen
Analyst · Bill Holobowski with Sidoti. Please proceed with your question
Okay. Well, first on supply chain. Customers in the second quarter last year did purchase and place orders from multiple sources in order to get product, particularly for back-to-school, but for other items as well. Those just happen to be in our segment. But you can imagine where you have a seasonal demand, which would be back-to-school. And your shelves have to be filled. And if you're online, you have to have product because the window while it is throughout the year is predominantly in the June through September range. And so early in the time last year, the second quarter, retailers were just buying whatever they could. You may remember that the ports were plugged up in the East Coast, the West Coast, Rotterdam, it really didn't matter. And there were massive problems getting products out of China and a lot of peeking were demand requirements for trucks and ships and containers. So that scrambled reinforced the need to get stock from our retailers a year ago. Well, that's pretty much changed. And while there was some sell-off in the second quarter, and we anticipated it because we knew what they had and when it was shipped, that's been worked out pretty much now. If you're looking at the second half, the retailers had a year for working out inventory really actually since maybe September when it lightened up a lot. But it's not the same kind of issue they had in the past nine months, it's far better. And so you're getting closer to the actual demand from customers. We're seeing, as we speak, pretty good growth, but it's early in the quarter. And I think that in the back half of the year, we should -- with the programs we've got in place right now, see continued revenue growth. On the earnings side, it will be substantially improved because we don't have the cost of shipping, which capitalized as product cost and work through in the third and fourth quarter, those are pretty much normalized now. And so the margins will continue to improve, we believe, in the back half of the year. So we're looking for a very strong back half. Now regarding inflation, I mean, recession, I have to believe that if you keep increasing interest rates, you eventually cause a recession and may be led by housing and it may be led by the auto industry and capital goods, but these are things that are interest rate sensitive. And while earnings are increasing for many people and we've had good increases to our employees, still you pay tax on your increases and the spending is after tax. And it's very hard to match up. So I think we will have a recession. And I think that the Fed in order to break interest rate or break inflation will continue to raise rates and they really don’t know the unintended consequences for moving that fast. We saw some of that with the banking segment. And there’ll be others because things do not operate independently. However, I think as relative to Acme, as I outlined earlier, our first aid side with the high refill rates and the programs we’ve got in place should be pretty strong. And maybe there’ll be some weakness in Westcott cutting tools because that is a consumer product. But I don’t see it to be major. I hope that helped.