Neal Fenwick
Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead
Thank you, Boris, and good morning, everyone. Our fourth quarter performance is recapped on page two of our slide deck. Fourth quarter sales decreased 10% or 2% at constant currency. The 2% decline was driven by lower volume primarily in Brazil. Adjusted net income was $32.5 million or $0.30 per share. This compared to $0.36 in the prior year quarter, adverse [ph] currency and lower sales drove the decline. Foreign exchange reduced EPS by $0.04 while share repurchase added $0.02 year-over-year. In terms of gross margin, which is shown on page three of the slide deck, the negative impact of mix in product costs offset benefits from our cost savings and productivity initiatives. As a result, fourth quarter gross margin decreased 70 basis points in the quarter to 33.4%. SG&A expenses were down 4% in the quarter entirely due to FX. Underlying expenses were up 2% as increased incentive compensation was only partly offset by cost savings. SG&A as a percentage of sales increased 130 basis points, 18.5%. In all, adjusted operating income was down $15.6 million of which $6.1 million was due to foreign exchange. Turning to the full year results, sales decreased 10.6% as foreign exchange translation reduced sales by $124 million or 7%. At constant currency sales declined 3%. Compared to our expectations going into the year, foreign exchange was 2% worse than we had expected, but the underlying business performed 2% better. Total sales were about the same. We were able to offset a more significant currency impact, declines with a large consolidating customer and economic recession concessions in Brazil with better sales in the US. Overall for the year, as a result of managing the sales decline well, we improved our operating income margin 20 basis points. Gross margin increased 30 basis points, more than offsetting a 10 basis points increase in SG&A. Adjusted net income was $86.4 million or $0.78 per share. As referenced on slide five, underlying EPS actually grew $0.03 per share and was further helped by $0.03 from lower interest expense, due to debt reduction and $0.04 from share repurchases. Unfortunately these factors were completely offset by $0.12 adverse impact from foreign exchange translation. Turning to an overview of our segments. In North America, fourth quarter sales decreased 2% or 0.4% at constant currency due to volume declines in Canada. Volumes in the US were up slightly. North America adjusted operating income was down $2.6 million and segment operating income margin decreased 60 basis points to 17.5% primarily due to product mix. For the year, North America's sales declined 4% or 2% at constant currency. The decline was primarily due to the effects from the Office Depot, OfficeMax merger which reduced our global sales by $38 million mostly in North America from a combination of reduced product placement in both the store and distribution center closures. North America operating income margin increased 100 basis points for the year up to 15.3% primarily due to cost savings and productivity improvements. In our international segment, fourth quarter sales decreased 23% largely due to foreign exchange translation which reduced sales by 18%. Sales decreased 5% at constant currency. Brazil drove most of the underlying decline. We saw slight growth in Asia and Australia and a slight decline in Europe and Mexico. As a result of the declines in Brazil and adverse currency, international operating income decreased $11.5 million to $20 million, and segment operating margin declined 330 basis points to 15.2%. $5 million of the decline was due to foreign exchange translation, Brazil alone declined $7 million, which included $1.3 million of severance to align our costs to lower volume. Even with lower volume and severance charges, Brazil remained profitable and delivered double-digit operating margins in the quarter. For the year, international sales decreased 22% or 5% at constant currency. Foreign exchange reduced our international segment sales by $94 million. In local currency, Brazil declined 14%, and Europe had a small decline, but we grew sales in Australia, Asia Pacific and Mexico for the year. International segment operating income decreased $23 million to $41 million and margin declined 220 basis points to 9.5%. $12 million of the decline was from foreign exchange translation, and another $11 million was in Brazil and attributed to the recession. Computer Products fourth quarter sales decreased 9% or 1% at constant currency, as a result of the decision to exit commoditized tablet accessory products. Computer Products adjusted operating income increased 10% and margin increased 170 basis points. For the year, Computer Products net sales decreased 12% or 4% at constant currency and margins increased 200 basis points to 8.8% as we refocus the business on its core. Turning to our cash flow and balance sheet. Despite strong currency headwinds which reduced our 2015 EBITDA by $22 million, we generated significant annual cash flow of $147 million. We paid down $71 million of debt, repurchased $60 million of stock and retired 6 million shares that were withheld for taxes under our incentive compensation plans. We exceeded our cash flow objective despite the significant headwind from foreign currency exchange because the sales decline in Brazil reduced its year end working capital need. We finished the year with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.8 times based on our bank covenant definition. Looking into 2016, currency continues to be a headwind given that 40% of our sales come from outside the US. Using recent spot rates, FX is likely to have an adverse $0.04 [ph] impact on sales and an adverse $0.03 impact on EPS. We do hedge our inventory purchases in order to allow time to adjust our selling prices in international markets to largely offset the currency impact on margins, but we cannot hedge against the translation effect on our results. While we do not provide quarterly guidance, I would like to point out that we expect a similar seasonal pattern to last year where our first quarter will have negative earnings. Just using the current spot rates, the most significant drag from foreign currency would be in the first three quarters and to a lesser extent in the fourth quarter. Our cash flow is also seasonal with almost all of it coming in Q3 and Q4. Our cash flow generation in Q1 will be essentially offset by the working capital investments for back-to-school in Q2. And Q2 will again be cash outflow quarter due to the seasonality of the North American back-to-school cycle. In terms of our guidance for free cash flow, over the past three years, we have generated approximately $450 million of free cash flow. In 2016, we are expecting approximately $135 million of annual free cash flow, down slightly from prior year due to the full adverse impacts from foreign exchange. Page seven of our slide deck contains a number of other modeling assumptions that factor into our earnings and free cash flow guidance. Cash taxes will increase slightly from 2015 levels, but will continue to be lower than book taxes in 2016, as we utilize our last year of NOLs from the Mead merger. We also do not anticipate the same sales reduction in Brazil and therefore less cash benefit from working capital. With that, I'll conclude my remarks and move to Q&A where Boris and I will be happy to take your questions. Operator?