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AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. (AB)

Q3 2011 Earnings Call· Wed, Oct 26, 2011

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the AllianceBernstein Third Quarter 2011 Earnings Review. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. That will give you instructions on how to ask questions at that time. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded and will be replayed for one week. I would now like to turn the conference over to the host for this call, the Director of Investor Relations for AllianceBernstein, Ms. Andrea Prochniak. Please go ahead.

Andrea Prochniak

Management

Thank you, Matthew. Good morning, everyone. And welcome to our third quarter 2011 earnings review. As a reminder, this conference call is being webcast and accompanied by a slide presentation that can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website. On the call today we have our Chairman and CEO, Peter Kraus; our Chief Operating Officer, David Steyn; and our Controller and Interim CFO, Edward Farrell. Now I’d like to draw your attention to the cautions regarding forward-looking statements on slide two of our presentation. Some of the information we present today is forward looking and subject to certain SEC rules and regulations regarding disclosure. You can also find our cautions regarding forward-looking statements in the MD&A of our 2010 Form 10-K and 2011 Form 10-Q filings. We filed our third quarter 2011 10-Q this morning. I’d also like to remind you that under Regulation FD, management may only address questions of the material nature from the investment community in a public forum. So, please ask all such questions during this call. Now, I’d like to turn it over to Peter.

Peter Kraus

Management

Thank you, Andrea. Welcome to our third quarter earnings call. Today, I’m going to take you through our third quarter challenges and accomplishments. David will elaborate on performance in close. Ed will review the financials and as always we look forward to taking your questions at the end. So let’s start with slide three. In the third quarter the series of events deeply and settled the global markets. Between the escalation of the European sovereign debt crisis, the U.S. debt ceiling debate and resulting S&P down rate and the weakling U.S. economy. Equity market performance was the worse we’ve seen since the 2008 financial crisis. Just looking that little deeper, the S&P’s 14% third quarter decline compares with a 23% decline in the fourth quarter of ‘08 when Lehman’s bankruptcy accelerated a crisis that was already underway. And the MSCI is 21% third quarter decline exceeded the fourth quarter 20% drop. In both the U.S. and Europe, market performance was worse and the market decline in the first quarter of 2009, which many considered the height of the crisis. Results were more severe than when concerns spread over Europe sovereign debt stress last year. Under these conditions equity investors radically derisk and fixed income investors play credit and fled high yield, all for the safety of U.S. treasuries. The yield hit a low of 1.7%. The environment had a profound impact on the performance of our long duration equity and corporate and high yield debt portfolios when client activity and on our financial results. Turning to slide four, these conditions intensified it difficult to have as witnessed in the market all year long. It has in particular effective the investment performance of our large cap equity portfolios. But simply the fundamental rules prudent long-term investing aren’t working. We’ve constructed our…

David Steyn

Management

Thank you, Peter, and good afternoon from London. The third quarter was one of many challenges which significantly divested our asset base and our operating performance. I’m going to take you through some of the details of the firm and distribution channels. Beginning with firm-wide AUM in flows. We ended the quarter with AUM of $402 billion down $59 billion or 12.8% from the end of the second quarter and down $75.5 billion or 16% year-over-year. Our average AUM is down 8% from prior quarter and down 6% versus last year. Gross sales of $11 billion were down by $3 billion in the second quarter and $2 billion from the same period last year. Total redemptions also declined in the quarter and as a result net out flows of $15 billion were lower versus both prior periods. Looking at the roll-in quarter view on slide 10, you can see the different dynamics underway in our three channels. Gross sales declined for both institutions and retail. Our private client gross sales increased slightly. We experienced double-digit percentage declines in client redemptions in institutions and private clients. However, in retail client redemptions were up 10%. I’ll come back to this for more details when I review our retail performance. But first, let’s spend a moment on institutional gross on slide 11. While gross sales and client redemptions declined by about the same amount in percentage terms, nearly 40% in the third quarter. The decline in redemptions was much greater in dollar terms, more than $7 billion. As a result, our net outflows of $9 billion were lower by about $6 billion versus the second quarter. Even with lower sales in the quarter and I’m on slide 12, we increased our pipeline by $800 million to $7 billion and that’s with several large…

Edward Farrell

Management

Thank you, David. Let me first go over the third quarter adjusted financial highlights reported earlier today then I’ll get into some detail around in each area. Adjusted earnings per unit was $0.30 in Q3 that’s down $0.05 from Q2 and $0.06 from Q3 2010. Adjusted revenues of $602 million were down 5% from Q2 and 4% versus the prior year quarter. Adjusted operating expenses were down 3% sequentially and 2% from the prior year quarter. Our adjusted operating margin was 17.7% in the quarter, down from 19.7% in Q2 and from 19.5% in Q3 2010. We repurchased 3 million units in Q3 at a cost of $45 million. Year-to-date through September, we’ve bought back 7.6 million units in the open market to help fund anticipated obligations under our incentive compensation program. Let’s take a look at the high-level GAAP income statement on the next slide. Our GAAP earnings per unit for the second quarter were $0.26, down $0.08 versus the prior quarter and up $0.14 from the third quarter of 2010. Quarterly net revenues of $642 million were down 12% sequentially and 15% versus the prior year quarter. Operating expenses of $564 million were down 8% from Q2 and 19% from Q3 2010. Operating income of $78 million was down 33% from Q2 but up 35% from Q3 2010. In our GAAP earnings, we recorded a $7 million real estate charge in the current quarter associated with the disposition of space in London. As a reminder, we recorded a $90 million real estate charge in the third quarter of 2010 associated with consolidation space in New York Metro area. Our effective tax rate in Q3 was 6.7%, down slightly from the prior quarter. We think 7% is still a good proxy for our full year projection. Now I’ll review…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Michael Kim with Sandler O’Neill. Your line is open. Michael Kim – Sandler O’Neill: Hey guys good morning. First, can you maybe talk about the expense outlook going forward just a given kind of the recent market down draft, other areas besides consolidating some of your office space where you can maybe tap the breaks or right size the footprint without kind of meaningfully compromising the long-term growth prospects of the franchise?

Peter Kraus

Management

Sure Michael. Look I think that, we are always as we said in the last few years are looking for places to become more efficient, I think some of the things that were focused most on right now is taking efficiencies out of both the operating platform and technology platform space of its space platform as you will and other parts of the support structure of the firm where we see the product set becoming more concentrated. There are number of places in the investment platform where asset sizes have gotten to a point where we can consolidate services, where we can create some efficiencies and we see an ability to do that over the next 18 months. And so, we will take advantage of that. But I would say that’s the normal course of business, but that’s what we are focused on. Michael Kim – Sandler O’Neill: Okay. And then maybe turning to the fixed income side of the business, which strategies are you seeing gaining most traction? And how much of a risk do you think it is that maybe some of these alternative credit strategies start to increasingly take allocations away from sort of the more of the traditional fixed income mandates, particularly given where rates are today and how do you think you are positioned if that dynamic plays out?

Edward Farrell

Management

Well, I think the big growth we’ve enjoyed has been in products such as global and high yield and we continue to see a significant demand for global and high yield. I mean, leaving the last quarter which was obviously kind of unusual quarter. And that demand is even more pleasing visits spread around the world and spread across the channels. When you touch on new generation fixed income products, I think we have a platform in fixed income today which is never ever being stronger in the history of this firm. And I think we can be competitive across the entirety of that fixed income range. Now, our products can do both, absolutely. We will put up, we just learned today, we put up an award for a [member] funds by a German consultant. If you had asked me five years ago or three years ago would I’ve even imagined we’d have a fund like that, either raised an eyebrow. So the whole fixed income world has changed -- it is changing rapidly, but we would expect to be a player in it, both in terms of the legacy services we both have business on and in terms of new evolving ones. Michael Kim – Sandler O’Neill: Okay. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Cynthia Mayer with Bank of America/Merrill Lynch. Your line is open. Cynthia Mayer – Bank of America/Merrill Lynch: Hi. Thanks a lot. Just wondering if you could maybe clarify G&A a little bit, I guess does the G&A number that you reported include the $10.7 million insurance proceeds and should we -- how should we think about that going forward we backed out is that a good rate for G&A going forward?

Peter Kraus

Management

The insurance proceeds number that we coated is the onetime event and backed out from our adjusted operating earnings. So I wouldn’t include that as a run rate item. Cynthia Mayer – Bank of America/Merrill Lynch: Okay. So if we take a look at the GAAP G&A, I guess it would in there and if we’re just trying to project GAAP G&A should we assume that it’s a good run rate without that?

Peter Kraus

Management

That’s correct. Cynthia Mayer – Bank of America/Merrill Lynch: Okay. And then just second question may be you can in the context of what your where talking about with expense opportunity -- say opportunities, could you update us on head count and may be your plans for next year.

Peter Kraus

Management

So we have said on head count in past discussion that we continued to mange that head count where the given the size of the firm and we’ll continue to do that. So I don’t think that we’re attempting to change the trajectory of the firm given where the asset levels are today. Cynthia Mayer – Bank of America/Merrill Lynch: And what’s the…

Peter Kraus

Management

So, I think that, yeah, I think that where we are in terms of numbers is year-to-date we’re down by about 8% and 4% between third quarter and second quarter. Cynthia Mayer – Bank of America/Merrill Lynch: Okay.

Peter Kraus

Management

So, that’s the trend that, you can’t project that to infinity obviously but it’s a, it’s a trend that reflects our prudence with regards to head count given where we are in the cycle of the market and given where we are in the history of the products. Cynthia Mayer – Bank of America/Merrill Lynch: Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line Craig Siegenthaler with Credit Suisse. Your line is opened. Craig Siegenthaler – Credit Suisse: Thanks. Good morning everyone. First, just to head on the research services strength and I heard your comments on higher market volumes in August, why don’t you get break that out and maybe gives us a granularity if that was from derivatives or that was some kind of plain vanilla equities commission or if anything lumping there either?

Peter Kraus

Management

I would tell this, nothing lumpy. It was good volume across all other different parts of the firm. The south side group has done an excellent job broadening out their trading platform which includes electronic trading, as well as the traditional face to face trading if you will. We’ve also as you know built out a driver’s capability of the last year which also did well in the quarter. And so, we would continue to see all of those three elements of the south side business growing. As you know we’ve also in the past building up Asia. Asia also is bringing on clients at an expected to slightly better than expected pace. And so, if volumes continue to be as they were -- we would continue to expect our business to do well. Now we know volumes are erratic. This is a volatile market and so it’s very difficult to project how that business will perform. But when you have months like August that’s obviously very attractive. We don’t think that August is a necessarily a trend, but clearly when the markets become that active we capture our market share and sometimes better. Craig Siegenthaler – Credit Suisse: Got it. And then, I mean, from your earlier comments, we really identified institutional redemptions is kind of the key driver of sequential improvement for you guys. I’m wondering, if was there any lumpiness to in that item when you look at the quarter-over-quarter comparison in terms of institutional redemption and June that’s a good run rate because the third quarter is also a very difficult quarter as you pointed out. Is that a level you can actually, if you think you can improve on into kind of the fourth quarter and going forward?

David Steyn

Management

That is a tough question to answer. We chatted in the past, I’ve said I would be very, very extrapolating any quarter in the institutional because they can be so lumpy. But, to answer the first part of the question whether there was any pattern during the quarter, yeah there was. September was materially worse than the two months we proceeded it. Now that’s not too much of a surprise, particularly in many parts of the world you tend to have seasonal effect in institutional business and the cost just never come from four week holidays in France. So, even in the good year, bad year or great year you’re going to have a seasonal effect within that quarter. That’s the only granularity, I’d give you. I don’t think there is any other particular pattern. Craig Siegenthaler – Credit Suisse: Got it. Great, David. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line Robert Lee with KBW. Your line is open. Robert Lee – KBW: Thanks, good morning guys. First, I have a question with CRS business, just kind of curious, you’ve had -- that’s obviously a decent proportion of your pipeline but can you talk a little bit about your success when you get those mandates in getting some of your own strategies put in place, in addition to your managing kind of a glide path if I understand it correctly. Just trying to get fix by assuming that’s where some of the real revenue upside also comes from if you can manage some of the underlying strategy?

David Steyn

Management

That’s true. We never broke out exactly what proportion of our CRS business we have up sleeves. But you are right that the real -- no time to use those tail, but the real return from CRS is when we can be a part of the investment management sleeve as well as part of the platform, but having said that, this platform alone has a potential to be a profitable business and it is an immensely sticky business. And what it means is we are in constant dialogue, whether we are a sleeve or not a sleeve, we are a part of the debate, we are sitting at the table, some of the biggest pension plans in the United States of America, which is an enviable place to be. But, the business without sleeves is going to be a good business, the business with sleeves is going to be a better business. Robert Lee – KBW: Okay. And also question on the real kind of marketing question. You’ve introduced a lot of new strategies including alternatives, you’ve pointed out some of the market neutral on long shot strategies, I’m just curious, how do you integrate those strategies, the thing you are kind of marketing in sales organization, since there are many ways I assume pretty different from what they’ve traditionally marketed. And I guess as a corollary to that how long does it take now your sales force to kind of get up to speed, I mean, if you introduce some of these strategies first part of this year is it really going to be 2000 -- a year later before you start to see kind of hopefully some RFP activity and pipeline build and trying to get a sense of kind of that.

David Steyn

Management

I could easily take an hour to answer that question, but let me see if I can do it in two minutes. When we merged Alliance Bernstein, we had a sales force in Alliance which was world class selling growth, a sales force at Bernstein is world class at selling value. We spent the next few years making them a general sales force which could sell any equity product in the cost sold backing ever dreamt. When we decided to move into fixed income, we took what was essentially an equity sales force, in general equity sales force and we trained it and moved it, inhibited it into an equity and fixed income sales force. So, this firm is a long and deep commitment to a general sales force, what I wonder we’re committed to, because our clients want us to have a general sales force. Now, having said that alternative is one step, one significant step harder. So, are we junking a general sales force for alternative push? No, not at all, we are training our general sales force as an all free channels, an alternative and the entire range of alternatives which the firm has. What we have done is to create a specialized team of some of our very, very finest salesmen drawn from all three channels and they are acting -- supporter is the wrong word. They are acting as a sort of added layer to drive strategic initiatives such as alternatives. So I was anticipating where you are going with questions to how long does it take to get your general sales force up and running we’re trying to kick start that process with a dedicated teamwork and side by side with the general sales force or with very best people. Robert Lee – KBW: Okay. Great. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Bill Katz with Citi. Your line is open. Ashley Hartigan – Citi: Good morning. This is actually Ashley Hartigan, Bill Katz’s associate. I know that you mentioned some recovery in private client, but what will allocate to get high net worth volumes to more positive number?

Peter Kraus

Management

I think the private client business has been successful in the environment we are operating in. This is a difficult environment for everyone and as David alluded to, when you look at other businesses since we don’t run a cash business and we don’t run a general brokerage business, sometimes it’s difficult to compare our numbers with other businesses, but the private client business has a terrific platform today, stronger, broader, deeper than it has been historically. We feel that our clients are closer to us than they have ever been, obviously because it’s a difficult time period and I think so what it takes to actually grow that business is commitment to it, consistency to it, strong platform and a diverse platform that gives clients what they need in difficult times. And I think that’s what we built, so it’s time, Ashley, to get where we need to go, but I think that we’ve proven we got the platform that’s required and we just have to continue to be tenacious in talking to our clients and bringing in new clients and showing new prospects what we can do. That’s what we -- that’s what our plan is and that’s what we’ll do. Ashley Hartigan – Citi: Great. Thank you. And then also what will it take to get the institutional pipeline through reflecting more measurable increase for net inflows.

Peter Kraus

Management

I like your tenacity on what it will take question, but we appreciate that. Look we are hard at work as David has said in his comments and his answers to the question in servicing clients. I think that the consultant activity that both I commented on and David commented on is much stronger today than it has been in the last couple of years. We see ourselves being included in searches that we haven’t been included before. The pipeline for the last two consecutive quarters has been growing. We think that we’re having more traction with institutional clients around the world on innovative ideas. Clients are talking to us about how do they navigate these more challenging times and structurally what did they do with their pension plan over the next three to five years, not just what’s the new product today, but how do they sell some of them were challenging issues that they have in developing an investment plan for meeting the long-term investment objectives, earnings objectives for those plans. So, I think, Ashley, we feel good about what we’re doing in the institutional side of the business notwithstanding the challenge performance that we’ve talked about numerous times with regards to our equity products. But one interesting point which we try to make and I guess I’ll just reiterate it is that our long duration equity services are quite provocative with regards to the elements that we’re exposed to. We believe that cheap price for earning, cheap yield, cheap cash flow is the right thing to invest in. You can see from the chart I think it was on slide four that that chart shows that those investment activities are just not in favor. People are just not paying for that, but over time we know that value and we know that will be attractive. In the institutional marketplace investors and clients that are with us and people that are talking to us recognize that and they recognize they need to be exposed to those factors and opportunities and that’s what -- that’s the true value proposition at the equity platform today on the long duration side. Ashley Hartigan – Citi: Great. Thank for taking my questions.

Operator

Operator

You next question comes from the line of Marc Irizarry with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Marc Irizarry – Goldman Sachs: Great. Thanks. Peter or David, can you talk little bit about where you are with DAA in the retail channel. I know you’ve had what looks like some great results and that it seems to be an area where a lot of competition is throwing their hat on the retail side and it seems like that’s may be where some founders and flows are going in these days. Where are you in the process of DAA or any product in the retail channel?

Peter Kraus

Management

Well, Mark DAA has been a big success for us so far in retail, both in the variable annuity products where some of the largest insurance companies of the world have included DAA in their product lineup. That has -- that is resulted in large sales for us, sometimes on a daily basis very attractive inflows. We’ve also populated in the retail marketplace in mutual fund form, the DAA product as well. That’s new meaning that it’s a few months or in some cases just happening. So, we will see but the results to date have reflected the growth in interest on the part of investors in a investment activity that create some shock absorbers in volatile market, where the shock absorbers are not quantitatively driven by simply levels of volatility. Marc Irizarry – Goldman Sachs: Okay. And then just a question, I guess for add the G&A seems like -- it’s come down a touch, but still this maybe a little bit elevated relative to out the average A1 decline. Is there any -- can you give a sort of the outlook in terms -- can you caps the breaks a little bit harder there and what the operating efficiency initiatives would be in the near term?

Peter Kraus

Management

In the near term, we continue to look at space. We -- our international occupancy costs have gone up and that’s really a function of the rate that we obtained in the overseas location. So, that’s driving it including we’re very focusing on that. As I mentioned, we have consolidated our London location from two spots to one. So, we anticipate seeing some benefit there in 2012 and another item that attributed to G&As is we record FX gains and losses within G&A and that was adversely impacting from the prior quarters to prior year quarters. But we continue to look at items such as technology, market dated service and other items within that category and we are working hard on it. Marc Irizarry – Goldman Sachs: There was a FX impact this quarter?

Peter Kraus

Management

Yeah. The FX impact this quarter was about $5 billion. Marc Irizarry – Goldman Sachs: Okay. And then Peter, before we can just go back to sort of big picture question, the industry seems to be going nontraditional, you’ve obviously been moving a bit more into the alternative share if you will. And just curious on the scope of the alternative products that you are offering today and also the outlook for any transactions or deals to sort of build out, the scope of your alternative product.

Peter Kraus

Management

So, we are exactly where we were last quarter which is focused on building out those services that we have identified as places where we think we’ve got core competencies and where we think we’ve got unique skills. We haven’t changed the lineup of opportunities to any material extent. We think we’ve got half a dozen internal alternative investment activities that are marketable today and we could offer clients with good strong track records. We’ve got a few others that we’re developing and we’ll continue to do that. The fund to funds business is now fully integrated into the sales effort and into the private clients business and that will continue to grow, hopefully at an accelerated pace. So that’s the plan. And I don’t think we need to adjust that because if we populate the services we have at even modest levels that will have materially positive impact on the future revenues and profitability of the firm. I think in terms of acquisitions, I’ll say what I’ve always said which is I’m not a huge fan. I think that there are times when you could be opportunistic. We’ve done that. We’ll continue to do that when we see those kinds of opportunities, we continue to be a franchise that people seek, the distribution system and the distribution strength continues to be a -- from outsiders perspective looking in, a very attractive thing to be a part of and that gives us an opportunity to see lots of increase. But we are choosey and picky and we’ll do what we think make sense within strategies that we’ve discussed. Marc Irizarry – Goldman Sachs: Okay. Great. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Hopson with Stifel Nicolaus. Your line is open. Jeff Hopson – Stifel Nicolaus: Okay. Thank you. On the institutional side or the redemption still concentrated in large CAP? Any sense if -- is that still a company issue or industry issue as far as you’re concerned in any patterns that you could expect in the future for the large GAAP?

Peter Kraus

Management

Yeah. The redemptions are still concentrated in large CAP within our lines bursting and as long as we have redemptions, I would expect that pattern to continue. Within the industry, I think it’s more complex, there is A shift out of last CAP that’s true, but it’s more a shift, I think there is a three shifts underway on the equity space. One is outer -- out of equities will stop. So, outer equity into fixed income alternatives, whatever has not. Then the second shift is outer domestic into global and then the third shift is within your domestic pie out of active and into passive. And whether the shifts -- those three shifts turn out to be secular or just very long terms on was semantics that they were for final shifts. And they are happening by the way in just about every pension for marketplace we worked. Jeff Hopson – Stifel Nicolaus: Okay. Great. Thanks.

Andrea Prochniak

Management

Do we have any follow-up questions?

Operator

Operator

We have no further questions at this time.

Andrea Prochniak

Management

Thank you everybody for participating in our conference call, we’ll wrap up now. Feel free to contact Investor Relations with any questions you have throughout the day. Thank you.