Bob Barton
Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is now open
Good morning and thank you, Ernest. Last night, we reported fourth quarter 2018 FFO of $0.47 per share and net income attributable to common stockholders of $0.14 per share for the fourth quarter. Fourth quarter results are primarily comprised of four highlights which are as follows: first, FFO missed consensus by approximately $0.01 in Q4 primarily from the onetime expensing of the demolition costs related to the redevelopment of the former Kmart building at Waikele Center. Secondly, as Ernest mentioned at our landmark at One Market Street in San Francisco, we signed a 10-year lease with Google at prevailing market rates in terms were approximately 253,000 square feet replacing Salesforce.com. Google began paying rent on two floors on January 1, 2019, and will begin paying rent on three additional floors on July 1, 2019. And on the remaining two floors for a total of seven floors, on June 1, 2020, with straight line rent beginning in Q3 '19. As noted in our earnings release and supplemental, the cash basis and straight line percentage change in our comparable new and renewal office leases signed in Q4 were approximately 64% and 96% respectively with a large part of that driven by the Google lease. Third, the former Sears Store at Carmel Mountain Plaza shopping center in San Diego closed its stores in late November 2018 after filing for bankruptcy. This reflects the drop at our leased occupancy from 98.8% in Q3 to 77.4% at the end of Q4. As you may recall, we owned the underlying land which we ground-leased to a third party ground lessee. In late December 2018, we reached a lease termination agreement with the ground lessee for it to surrender the former Sears building which is owned in exchange for the release of its remaining obligations under the ground lease. This transaction closed in January 2019 with the recording of the grant deed, which legally transferred title of the building back to American Assets Trust resulting in a $4.5 million termination fee to be recorded in Q1 '19. That termination fee was calculated based on the discounted cash flow analysis of the then remaining ground lease rent schedule. But wait the story doesn't end there. Less than three weeks later we signed the 10-year lease for the entire former Sears building approximately 108,000 square feet with a national retailer in the home decor space, which we understand is making its debut entry into California. This brings our retail leasing occupancy back up approximately 98% in Q1 '19. We anticipate this retailer will be well-received in this high demographic area and will make a significant impact in Carmel Mountain Plaza by activating the eastern end of the shopping center, which has long been in need of a renovation as it was previously under control by a third-party. Rent is expected to begin in Q4 '19 with straight line rent commencing in Q3 '19. We expect this new tenant to increase FFO on an annual basis by approximately $1.03 over what we were receiving from the former ground lessee. Tenant improvements are minimal. Number four, we increased our 2019 FFO guidance by $0.06 at the midpoint primarily as a result of the $4.5 million termination fee previously discussed to $2.22 per FFO share. We also believe now more that anytime in the last three years there is a clear path to organic growth over the next several years with our high-quality coastal West Coast focus. From our vantage point, we expect to see in excess of 6% organic growth in FFO in 2019 and in excess of 8% organic FFO growth in 2020. We expect similar organic growth in our EBITDA as Google comes online for a full year beginning 1-1-20, which we believe will produce well in excess of 12% growth in EBITDA in 2020 compared with the year-end 2018 resulting in a net debt to EBITDA that we expect will be closer to 5.5x strictly through organic growth. And we believe the existing organic growth also allows us to grow further through smart accretive acquisitions and other opportunities that can create long-term shareholder value that we hope will close the price to NAV gap. Let's take a deeper dive into the details behind these highlights. As it relates to retail, during the trailing four quarters 78 retail leases were signed representing approximately 317,000 square feet or 10% of our total retail portfolio. Of these leases signed, 63 leases consisting of approximately 239,000 square feet were for spaces previously leased. On a comparable basis, the annual cash basis rent increased 3.6% over the prior leases. As it relates to office or office portfolio end of the quarter at approximately 90.9% and the increase of approximately 250 basis points on a comparative basis year-over-year primarily due to an increase in occupancy at our City Center Bellevue and Torrey Reserve Campus in San Diego, leaving a vacancy of approximately 9.1% or 242,000 square feet of our 2.7 million square foot office portfolio. It is also important to note that we believe our in-place rents for the office portfolio even after signing the Google lease are still approximately 23% below market. Let's talk about same-store NOI for a moment. Same-store retail cash NOI increased in the fourth quarter to 3.8%. The increase primarily relates to increased rents at our Carmel Mountain Plaza, Loma Santa Fe and Alamo Quarry Market shopping centers combined with a decreased rental expenses at our Gateway marketplace shopping center which was acquired in 2017. Same-store office cash NOI increased 4.9% in the fourth quarter primarily due to rental abatements burning off on new tenants at City Center Bellevue. Same-store multifamily cash NOI increased 9.1% primarily due to improved operating results of the Pacific Ridge Apartments in San Diego. Total revenue of Pacific Ridge Apartments continues to increase again in 4Q 2018 by approximately 8% primarily due to increased base rent. In addition, rental expenses decreased 3% as our restructured multifamily management team continues to focus on operating expenses and efficient operating margins to drive solid results. The remainder of our multi-family portfolio performed well with an increase of cash NOI of approximately 3% primarily attributable to an increase in base rent and other property income at Hassalo on Eighth in Portland combined with the decrease in rental expense. Waikiki Beach Walk our mixed use property consisting of the Embassy Suites Hotel and Waikiki Beach Walk retail reported a combined increase in same-store cash NOI excluding redevelopment of 1.8% for the fourth quarter. Broken down further this represents an increase at the Embassy Suites Hotel of approximately 14% offset by a decrease at Waikiki Beach Walk retail down approximately 8%. The increased cash NOI the Embassy Suites can be attributed to an increase in ADR year-over-year of approximately 5.8%. At our Waikiki Beach Walk retail center, the decrease in same-store cash NOI was primarily due to a reduction in the percentage rent as well as an increase in repair and maintenance expenses. Nevertheless, tenant sales remain high at $1,112 per square foot for the rolling 12 months as our tenants continue to benefit from the excellent location and good economy. Turning to our fourth quarter results, FFO decreased approximately $0.06 to $0.47 per FFO share compared to the third quarter. The fourth quarter results include the following activity: first, with respect to the signing of the Google lease, which resulted in the early termination of the salesforce lease, the useful life of assets related to Salesforce lease were adjusted to reflect the remaining lease term. The acceleration of the write-off of these assets decreased FFO by approximately $0.02 per FFO share. Second, G&A expenses increased by approximately $0.02 per FFO share as a result of our achieving better than expected year end performance objectives based on the positive results achieved in operations and leasing activities for the entirety of 2018. Third, Embassy Suites seasonality and operations decreased fourth quarter FFO by approximately $0.01. And fourth, at our Waikele Center one-time demolition expenses were incurred with respect to the building formerly occupied Kmart resulting in a $0.01 decrease in FFO per share. Now, as we look at our balance sheet liquidity at the end of the fourth quarter, we had approximately $334 million in liquidity comprised of $48 million of cash and cash equivalents and $286 million of availability on our line of credit. Our leverage which we measure in terms of net debt to EBITDA was 7.2x although our continued focus is to get our net debt to EBITDA back down to 5.5x or below. We believe that our existing organic growth in EBITDA will reflect the following approximate net debt to EBITDA ratios quarter-by-quarter in 2019. Q1 '19 it will drop to 6.1x due to the termination fee related to the former Sears ground lease. Q2 '19, we expect it to go back up to approximately 7x. Q3 '19, it will drop again to 6.6x with a straight line revenue being recorded on the Google lease. Q4 '19, we expect it to be 6.0x and 5.7x by Q4 '20. Again, all of this is through existing organic growth. And as always, our guidance in these prepared remarks exclude any impact from future acquisitions, dispositions, equity issuances or repurchases, future debt refinancings or repayments other than what we have already discussed. We will continue our best to be as transparent as possible and share with you our analysis interpretations of our quarterly numbers. Operator, I'll now turn the call over to you for questions.