Tom Greco
Analyst · J. P. Morgan. Your line is now open
Thanks, Zaheed and good morning. I'd like to begin by acknowledging all of our team members and independent owners across the AAP family for their efforts to better serve our customers in the quarter. Through their dedication, we’re executing well against the five-year plan review that our investor conference last November. In Q1, our comp store sales performance was down 2.7%. This result reflects the impact of a series of factors we anticipated in Q1, as well as short-term headwinds that were not planned. These headwinds impacted the entire industry in Q1. Let’s start with what we expected. As we noted last quarter, our Q4 performance benefited from two significant factors; first, the shift of New Year’s Day into Q1, which help Q4 but reduced comp store sales in Q1; secondly, a substantial increase in winter related demand was pulled forward into December and out of January. In particular, our Northern markets benefited from the cold December. Given our geographic footprint, we disproportionately benefited from this in Q4 and it disproportionately hurt us in Q1. None of this was a surprise and the fact that our comps in Q1 were lower relative to Q4 was consistent with our 2017 operating plan and consistent with what we said last quarter when we reported comp sales of 3.1%, our strongest performance in the 12 quarters post the GPI acquisition. We’ve been looking at our across business across Q4 and Q1 combined for several months now. This provides a normalized picture of sequential sales improvement. For the 28-week period, we delivered positive sequential improvement in our comp sales performance. The combined comp for Q4 and Q1 of down 0.3% was approximately 70 basis point improvement versus the comp in Q3 2016. The sequential improvement we’ve delivered in recent quarters demonstrates we’re making real progress. At the same time, we’re not immune to the macro headwinds within the industry, which resulted in unexpected substantially softer consumer demand in the middle of Q1 as reflected in the publicly available data. This timeframe was worse than expected and resulted in a slow start to the spring selling season. That said, these short-term variables tend to smooth themselves overtime and while we need to manage them as part of our day-to-day operations, they don’t change how we’re transforming the business and how we think about long-term growth. The beginning of the quarter was in line with our expectations, as was the end of the quarter. We along with the rest of the industry experienced softness in February and March. The good news is we closed Q1 with stronger performance and this is carried into Q2. As a result, we expect sequential improvement in our top-line growth once again in Q2 as compared with our Q4, Q1 combined number of down 0.3%. So to reinforce the key points surrounding our top-line performance, we’re viewing Q4 and Q1 as one combined timeframe in our transformation. Q3 last year had comps to down 1% and Q4 and Q1 combined had comps of down 0.3%. While this was less than we planned, it represented sequential improvement and we expect to deliver sequential improvement again in Q2. Our steadily improving sales performance reflects the impact of decisive and consistent actions we’ve taken across three areas of focus, giving us confidence going forward; first, our priority to put the customer first is permeating the organization. It has been and will continue to be the key driver for consistent top-line growth. Second, our sustain investments and availability, customer service and our front-line is strengthening execution and engagement. And third, better execution throughout our supply chain is driving increased fill rates, higher in-stocks and reduced order to delivery time. Together, this is resulting in a better experience for customers in both Professional and DIY. Turning to operating income, we’ve been clear. Our turnaround won’t be linear. It’s important to note that while we’re not managing our business quarter-to-quarter, our Q1 operating income results were generally in line with internal expectations at the beginning and end of the quarter with the notable exception of larger than anticipated sales softness in February and March. As in the past several quarters, our operating profit performance reflects deliberate choices to invest in our business and specifically in the customer to position AAP for the long-term. When sales slowed down in the middle of Q1, we could have made a short-term decision to pull back on customer service. But in fact, we made a deliberate decision to sustain investment. At times, we know the difficult choices need to remain to fully capitalize on the significant opportunity we have to drive growth and margins over the long-term. Given the early stage of our turnaround and focus on reinvigorating the customer experience, the choice to sustain investment and customer service in the middle of short-term whether related softness was one of the easier decisions made in the quarter. These investments are beginning to pay-off as evidenced by sequential improvement of comp store sales along with progress on core input metrics, including improved in stock rates, significant reductions in turnover and faster delivery times to customers. The other drivers of our operating margin decline resulted from fixed costs deleverage due to the comparable store sales decline and our continuing efforts to optimize our inventory. Tom Okray will provide more color on the financial shortly. At the same time, our productivity agenda is on track and ramping up nicely. We’re now executing against the framework we’ve been constructing over the past several months. As the program boost and design to execution, we’ll realize considerable productivity savings in the back half of the year for our annual operating plan. As a result of these factors outlined, we delivered an adjusted operating margin rate of 7.1% and adjusted EPS of $1.60. Taking all this into account, we remain confident with the progress we’re making as we execute our plan and expect sales and customer momentum to continue with more operating leverage as we enter the back half of 2017. We’re performing well relative to our primary input metrics as the beginning and end of the quarter was in line with expectations. Unfortunately, the middle of the quarter was below plan as was broadly experienced across the industry. We also believe the sales softness was short-term in nature given recent trends. Importantly, Importantly, our productivity agenda ahead of plan. We’ve now conclude that we can drive more gross savings in a shorter period of time. We will do this while continuing to position the business to grow faster. We’ll begin to see improvements from our productivity initiatives in the second half of this year, which will help us meet bottom line targets. With Q1 behind us, I am pleased to report that we are now officially transitioning from Phase 1 of our transformation plan to Phase 2. Phase 1 had three overarching objectives. First, refocus the organization from top to bottom on the customer. We have lost faith of this top priority and needed to regain a customer first culture to ensure a long term growth. Everyone at AAP needed to raise their gain by putting the customer first in everything we do. Across our businesses, we are now seeing adoption of a mindset that everyone's number one priority is sharing for the customer. Second, develop and align the organization behind a clear strategy and five year plan to accelerate performance. In addition, we have defined and are now executing against the new set of foundational cultural shifts we need to make. And third, build a world class leadership team that can execute our plan in the short term while transforming our business in the future. We are re-advancing Advance Auto Parts and I am excited by the fact that we have built a new and highly skilled leadership team by attracting top talent from multiple companies and industries. This when combined with deep parts experience throughout the organization give us a team which can both perform in the short term while transforming our business over the long term. In Phase 1, we made deliberate and sustained investments and availability, customer service and our front line. This has improved input metrics and sales trends were getting market share performance moving in the right direction. With Phase 1 complete, we’re turning our attention to Phase 2. Our objective for Phase 2 include; first, elevate focus on the customer and continue to narrow the performance gap; second, flawlessly execute the multi-year productivity plan we have been developing. We have a significant opportunity to thoughtfully and permanently remove unnecessary costs; and third, challenge our new leadership team to elevate our focus on attracting and developing talent throughout the organization. With stronger talent, we will build new capacities required to win in the future and evolve the culture to deliver value. We have been hard at work with our growth agenda and over the past three quarters developing our Phase 2 initiatives, we’re very excited about the capabilities we’re building as we test and learn new ideas throughout the country. We’re now beginning to scale the top performing initiatives. First, we’re improving the customer experience and driving consistent execution across our network for both Professional and DIY customers. In Professional, it all starts with improving availability. Here we are building on the successful pilots we ran last year. Our availability transformation positions the right parts closer to the right customers by store reduces order to delivery time and drives growth. We have now added more stores to the availability transformation and we are seeing similar robust performance improvements that we saw in our lead markets in 2016. As a result, we’re expanding in select market throughout the balance of the year. We’re also augmenting this improved availability with an enhanced technology platform. We piloted this last fall with exceptional results and made the decision to invest in the back-end analytics engine combined with front end consumer facing technology for customer account managers to improved sales productivity. With better insight into our customers, our customer account managers are able to more effectively manage their time with customers to better meet their needs. This will be fully deployed in Q3. In DIY, we’re equally focused on improving our customer and team member experience. We’ve been running DIY experience pilots in a number of stores and markets. These pilots are standardizing the in-store customer experience store-by-store and region-by-region. So every store has the same consistent processes, the same consistent training and the same consistent approach to servicing the customer. In addition to making critical investments in the customer to drive growth, the second pillar of Phase 2 is the focus on our robust productivity pipeline. Since we announced the productivity agenda and corresponding targets last November at our Analyst Day, we’ve been aggressively putting the structure and leadership team in place to execute a sustainable multi-year productivity program. As we said previously, the productivity muscle simply is not exists at AAP. Our agenda includes thoughtful planning to change the work, investment and infrastructure and people to drive it and an intense focus on increasing visibility and performance management of costs. Our new leadership team has been instrumental in applying both longstanding experience and fresh perspectives to build our productivity agenda. As a result, we’re updating the target we shared with you last November of 500 million in productivity over five years and we now expect to achieve 750 million in gross productivity over four years, reflecting both the significant increase and acceleration. Over the past several months, we’ve been aggressively challenging our sales to think differently about the work and how to thoughtfully and permanently remove waste from our system. The additional 250 million has resulted from our new leadership team challenging the status quo and will allow additional investments in our customers while expanding margins. To be clear, the productivity target is not sales dependent, it’s a gross number and some of this cost benefit will be used to fund growth initiatives, while the vast majority of it will drive margin improvement. Our productivity agenda continues to focus on the three pillars we shared last November; first, zero based budgeting or ZBB; second, the optimization of our supply China; and third reducing material input costs. We’re very excited about this work. Allow me to share some examples. First, on ZBB, we’re standardizing our first to cost control while eliminating redundancies and unproductive spending. There are substantial opportunities here throughout the Company. Our ZBB agenda includes fundamental process redesign, policy changes and a complete rethink of how work it’s done. This has been completed in many areas throughout the Company, and we expect to realize cost savings from this in the back half of 2017. Second, the simplification and optimization of our supply chain will drive both effectiveness and efficiencies. We are looking at our supply chain very differently than we have in the past. We’re starting with the customer and working back to better meet their needs while leveraging the formidable footprint we enjoy today. In doing so, we’re building new capabilities and leveraging the entirety of our asset base. The great news here is that this approach provides the dual benefit of new capabilities and productivity without requiring additional investment in new buildings. As an example of supply chain optimization, we’ve already consolidated fleet management companies, transitioning from three partners to one. Previously, Advance, Worldpac and Auto Part International negotiated three contracts separately, which resulted in three different suppliers and three different contracts. We’re moving to one. In addition to significant savings, AAP will benefit from enhanced analytics and coordination across our entire fleet associated with having a single dedicated partner. This is a material simplification opportunity that leverages scale, dramatically improves asset utilization and lowers cost. Third, let's talk material input costs, again we’re taking a very different approach been in the past. We’re conducting deep dives on product categories to better understand the material cost of the skews in our assortment and what type of collaborative value engineering we can do with our suppliers or brand partners as we now refer them, who are helping us find the wins both of us need to drive accelerated growth. This work has already been conducted on several product categories, resulting in increased cost transparency and an improved material cost structure. We are working with our suppliers and partnership to apply this rigor n process across many categories throughout the balance of the year. To-date, we’ve been building the foundational elements of our productivity agenda and have a high degree of confidence in our plan. We are now ready to drive execution of this plan, which will generate meaningful savings this year and beyond. In summary, as we enter into Phase 2 of our transformational journey, we’re investing in customer service and execution to narrow the top line growth gap versus the industry. We’re dramatically increasing the focus on our productivity agenda to drive margin expansion and perhaps most importantly, we’re we are increasing our proficiency in growing talent and evolving our culture. This is not an overnight process but we’re pacing as expected and we will continue improving each quarter. As I said from the beginning, the opportunity to drive shareholder value at AAP is substantial to fully capture the opportunity ahead. We’re taking focused disciplined approach to accelerate long term growth, while staying lesser focus on improving execution and performance for the balance of the year. With that, I’ll pass it to Tom Okray to share financials.