Suren Rana
Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is open
Thanks Guang. Turning to the slide nine, we provide an overview of our three segments, which we believe best reflect the three distinct parts of our business. This enhanced segment disclosure will provide investors more transparency on our differentiated business mix and better identify the growth drivers going forward.It also allows investors to see the progress across each of our key business line at a more detailed level. As an aside, and in case you're wondering, we will continue to provide asset class level AUM disclosure that we have provided historically and you will see it in the 10-Q.So, turning back to the segments. The quant/solutions segment shown on the left hand side on the slide includes strategies where we are leveraging highly sophisticated proprietary technology to process vast amount of data to deliver strategies and solutions to our clients that are tailored to achieve their specific risk and return objectives. For example, our affiliate Acadian has consistently invested in its technology for decades to allow them to isolate and deploy a multitude of factors across asset classes, geographies and currencies that can best produce the outcomes sought by the clients.We see strong secular tailwinds supporting the segment as clients are increasingly seeking differentiated capability. This segment should also benefit as clients continue to ask for highly customized solutions for their target outcomes, instead of pre-packaged offerings. The strategies in the segment such as low volatility, multi-asset class, multi-alpha single factor, multi-asset income are all highly scalable and provide tens of billions of dollars of capacity to meet the growing global demand.Our alternatives segment in the middle column primarily comprises private market strategies like private equity, real estate and real assets such as forestry. Most of our revenue in this segment comes from stable management fees from long-term committed capital and non-performance fee.These strategies continue to enjoy strong demand from institutional investors, which we believe will drive meaningful organic growth for us going forward, particularly as several of our strategies approach their next-vintage fundraising cycles over the next few quarters, which will grow our AUM in the segment between 2020 and 2022. By way of reference, we raised approximately $12.5 billion in our alternative strategies in 2016 to 2018 fundraising cycle.The liquid alpha segment, on the right most column, enclose a diverse mix of fundamental long-only public security investment across a range of asset classes, geographies and capitalization ranges.In this segment, we have proven track record of outperformance across market cycles over long periods of time. While we have seen elevated outflows in this segment from low-fee U.S. equity, sub-advisory area, we continue to develop and seed higher fee higher margin strategies such as emerging markets, global equity and leveraged loans.As a result, our margins in the segment continue to be healthy. So, looking at our three segments and the fact that quant/solutions and alternatives segments that together comprise two-thirds of our revenue are enjoying strong secular tailwinds, and our liquid alpha segment nicely complements our overall business.It positions the company very well to produce strong organic growth. We would expect quant/solutions and alternatives segments to account for more than 80% of our business in the coming years and generate strong revenue and earnings growth for the company as a whole.We also continue to seed and are also open to acquiring new in-demand strategies particularly in those two segments, which we expect to generate additional growth on top of our current positioning. And we're taking these in-demand strategies to new geographies such as Asia and new channels such as insurance as Guang earlier mentioned.So, this diversified business mix and our suite 100-plus strategies across these three segments, enables us to offer to our clients comprehensive product like total solutions that Guang mentioned and these kind of products show the true power of our multi-affiliate model.And also this diversified business mix produces very strong cash flow, which we can continue to use to repurchase our shares and generate additional EPS growth. So to summarize on this slide, our comprehensive and differentiated business mix is well positioned to produce organic growth and we continue to invest in new product in these two areas, which we expect to generate additional growth.Now, turning to each of the segments individually. On slide 10, we show the results for the quarter from our quant/solutions segment. This segment continues to generate positive flows, given the trends favoring differentiated strategies and solutions that I touched on earlier.And while there could be inter-quarter movements from time to time, this segment should continue to generate strong long-term organic growth. The adjusted EBITDA in the segment remained consistent as last quarter at $35.9 million, and the drop in EBITDA compared to year-ago quarter was driven by 4Q18 market decline.Turning to the alternatives segment on the next slide, slide 11. This segment has produced strong growth for us, generating $12.5 billion of high fee flows between 2016 and 2018 that I touched on earlier. So coming off of that strong AUM growth, 2019 has been primarily focused on deployment of capital.And as I mentioned earlier, we would expect to get back to growing our AUM in this segment between 2020 and 2022 as multiple strategies are nearing their next-vintage fund raisers. And our track record continues to be very strong.As you will note from the pie chart on the left, most of our AUM in this business is invested in private market strategies, in private equity, real estate, and real assets. Relatedly, the pie chart on the right shows that most of our AUM in this segment comes from long-term capital either in commingled funds or separate accounts. Additionally, 90% to 95% of our revenue in this segment comes from management fees and non-performance fees.The adjusted EBITDA for the segment came down from $12.1 million last quarter to $8.8 million, primarily due to the timing of the outsized placement agent fee that Guang mentioned earlier.And the revenue and EBITDA versus a year-ago quarter are lower due to absence of catch-up fees. As we have mentioned in the past, the funds raised in 2018 generated catch-up fees accruing from the time of first closings of those vintages, which were in 2016 and 2017.This year, we do not have any catch-up fees as we completed the fundraising of those vintages in 2018. Having said that, this dynamic will reverse in 2022 -- between 2020 and 2022, when we start fundraising with new vintages.Turning to our third segment, liquid alpha segment on slide 12. This segment has generated and maintained a strong long-term investment performance for clients over long time periods through high quality team and disciplined investment processes.As we touched on earlier, we saw elevated flows this quarter of $6.8 billion, of which approximately $2 billion was related to Victory's acquisition of USAA and $2 billion was from continued reallocation by a specific sub-advisory client in the U.S. large-cap strategy. While the Victory-USAA transaction was episodic and one-time, we do expect to see more outflows from the client in U.S. large-cap strategy for next several quarters.So, while the latter issue was not one-time, it is a finite issue, given that it's only one client. And having said all that, these outflows are generally as we have mentioned from low-fee strategies and we continue to see inflows in higher fee strategies. As a result of this diversification into high-fee strategies and continued expense discipline, our margins in this segment continue to be very healthy.Moving to slide 13, where we compare our key metrics for Q3 2019 to prior quarters, on a consolidated basis. I want to call out on this slide, our weighted average fee rate on the bottom left-hand side, which decreased from 37.5 bps in Q2 2019 to 35.9 bps this quarter.This decrease was mainly driven by market depreciation in higher fee asset classes such as emerging markets equities along with the increase in placement agent fees that we touched on earlier, which directly reduced the management fee as a contra item against revenue. These two factors primarily led to the decline in our EPS from $0.45 to $0.42.The next slide, slide 14, shows our net client cash flows and revenue impact of flows by segment. The chart on the left-hand side shows the net flows for our quant/solutions segment, and alternatives segment have generally been positive with negative net flows concentrated in the liquid alpha segment.For this quarter, quant/solutions and alternatives segment had $0.6 billion of positive net flows, while liquid alpha segment had $6.8 billion of negative net outflows -- net flows.Total net client cash flows was negative $6.2 billion. Our gross sales declined slightly quarter-over-quarter from $5.1 billion to $4.6 billion, while the growth outflows weakened from $7.8 billion to $12.1 billion, which included the $2 billion we mentioned from Victory's acquisition of USAA and the $2 billion from the sub-advisory clients.Inflows were at 34 bps, while outflows were 30 bps, again highlighting the concentration of outflows in lower fee products and our continued migration toward higher fee strategies.Please note on this page that our NCCF and revenue impact of NCCF now includes income and distributions reinvested by clients and excludes realizations to more accurately reflect sources of recurring flows and to provide more granularity on our flows.Now, I also point your attention to slides 23 and 24 in the appendix, where we do provide additional granularity on our key segments. Note that the other column here primarily reflects our headquarter expenses and corporate-level items such as interests and taxes.Now, I'd like to turn the call back to the operator and we're happy to answer any questions you may have.