Steve Belgrad
Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Your line is open
Thanks Aiden, and good morning. Turning to slide nine, the third quarter continued the positive trends from the first half of 2017 and resulted in record ENI financial results. This quarter benefited from the same factors that drove growth earlier in the year as average AUM consolidated affiliates increased, e-rates expanded, NCCF revenue was positive, and accretion from Landmark continued as expected. We also saw the positive impact of our combined 11 million share buyback in December 2016 and May of 2017, which decreased our share count by approximately 9%. The first nine months of 2017 sets us up for a strong year overall as we saw market inflow-driven growth in our higher-fee global non-U.S. asset classes and alternatives. The EAFE [ph] and emerging markets indices increased 20% and 27.8% respectively in the first nine months, while lower fee large-cap value products in the U.S., those indices went up 7.9%. In addition a number of our larger strategies generated output during this period, which further enhanced AUM growth beyond market levels. Finally, Landmark continues to generate cash flow, fee rate and earnings accretion. As Jim indicated we're close to finalizing a definitive agreement to sell Heitman back to its management on the terms we described last quarter. Expected proceeds are $110 million in cash which represents approximately $73 million on an after-tax basis a current tax rates. The transaction is expected to close around year-end, but the latest quarter and first nine months of the year Heitman represented 6% and 4% of our after-tax ENI respectively. Following the sale while there may be modest short-term dilution until that cash is put to work. We would expect the medium-term financial impact of this transaction to be immaterial. Under U.S. GAAP equity accounting, our share of Heitman earnings are included in our financial results until the transaction closes. However we've adjusted our AUM inflow information to reflect the elimination of Heitman starting July 1, 2017. We believe this presents a more accurate picture for investors going forward. Therefore you'll notice that the reduction of Heitman's $32 billion of AUM in our latest AUM information. Our NCCF data includes Heitman for the first six months but not in the third quarter. Comparing Q3 2017 to Q3 2016 economic net income was up 22.9% quarter-over-quarter to $46.7 million or$0.43 per share driven by a $52.4 million or 30% increase in ENI revenue. On a per share basis, ENI EPS increased 34% benefited by the share buybacks in December of last year and May of this year. While market driven increases and the acquisition of Landmark partially offset by outflows resulted in a 17% increase in consolidated affiliate average assets from the year ago quarter. Our continued shift in asset mix towards higher fee products enabled us to increase management fees by 29% during this period. Our weighted average fee rate increased by 3.5 basis points over the period of which approximately three basis points is attributable to Landmark and the remainder, the beneficial fee mix in the existing portfolio driven by flow and markets. Performance fees of $0.7 million contributed only 1% of our revenue growth. As we continue to experience negative performance fees caused by management fee offsets in certain U.S. sub-advisory accounts. Operating expenses were up 18% in part due to Landmark but the ratio of operating expenses to management fee revenue benefited significantly from scale. Excluding the impact of Landmark, operating expenses grew approximately 13% over Q3 2016 compared with about a 16% increase in revenue on the same basis. I'll discuss these trends further on slide 12. The combination of strong revenue growth and slower expense increases resulted in a 235 basis point increase in ENI operating margin to 38.9%. And our adjusted EBITDA increased 30% to $72 million for the third quarter of 2017 compared to Q3 2016 to the acquisition of Landmark and higher earnings in the existing business. Comparing the first nine months of 2017 to the first nine months of 2016, ENI income is up 24.5% to 132.2 million with EPS up 32.6% to $1.18 per share over this period. One area that we continue to monitor is taxes both in the U.S. and the U.K. As we highlighted last quarter, the U.K. tax authorities are proposing tax law changes that could impact our level of U.K. taxes as of July 13th 2017. All this proposal -- while this proposal could change before final enactment by parliament, we would record the incremental U.K. date U.K. tax as of that date upon enactment of the revised legislation which could impact fourth quarter results by approximately $3 billion or $0.03 per share. Under U.S. GAAP, we're not able to record the impact of this tax until it is formally enacted even though potentially it could be applied to our third quarter earnings. On a full year 2017 basis, we expect our tax rate to be approximately 28% as a result of this increase. In the interim, we continue to explore alternative corporate structures which would enable us to partially preserve our current tax benefits. However, even in a scenario where we are bound by the new U.K. tax regime and accrue approximately 10 million in additional taxes in 2018 which is equivalent to a 31% to 32% effective tax rate. This impact will actually decrease by about $1 million or more as the U.K. lowers its tax rate from 19% to 17%by 2020 and our level of third-party interest increases. Even with the higher U.K. taxes, our U.K. domiciled saves us about $11 million annually at current tax rates. We continue to review potential tax law changes in the U.S. which can generate lower corporate tax rates. Changes in U.S. tax law could result in a reduction or refund of our DTA payments to Old Mutual PLC, reflecting the decreased value of DTA in a lower tax environment and lower cash taxes. The marginal U.S. corporate tax rate of 25% would result in an effective tax reduction from approximately 31% to 32% to 25% to 26%for OMAM. While the company has achieved significant in ENI EPS growth thus far in 2017 and the annual impact of AUM increases at our consolidated affiliate and the May 2017 share buyback provides earning momentum going into next year. There are a number of factors that could impact EPS growth in 2018. As described above expected changes in U.K. tax laws and the loss of Heitman earnings following disposition until the sale proceeds are reinvested will have a moderating impact on growth in 2018. These items could be offset by a reduction in U.S. corporate tax rates. As we plan for 2018, management is committed to managing its expense structure and seeking accretive opportunities for growth through partnerships with new affiliates. Slide 10 gives a better perspective of our financial trends over the last five quarters as average assets from consolidated affiliates have increased steadily over the period due to market movement and the acquisition of Landmark. In each quarter we show the core earnings power of the business by breaking out the impact of performance fees which were meaningful in the fourth quarter of 2016 and the second quarter of 2017. Average assets excluding equity encountered affiliates increase 17% during the period from Q3 2016 to Q3 2017 while the concurrent increase in fee rates excluding equity accounted affiliates went from 34.9 basis points to 38.4 basis points. Accelerating this growth and resulting in a 29% increase in revenue excluding performance fees and 30% including them. While Landmark contributed about half of this revenue growth, the remainder was due to increasing average assets and fee rates in the existing business. Rising average fee rates have been driven by market appreciation and higher fee asset classes and the revenue flow trends we have seen in 14 of the last 15 quarters where higher fees were earned on new asset sales and lower fees were earned on outflows primarily U.S. sub-advisory fixed income. Our operating margin of 38.9% was a significant improvement from the prior periods 36.5%. On the right side of this chart, you can see pre-tax ENI and after-tax ENI per share which grew by 30% and 34% respectively over the period. Even on a sequential quarterly basis, comparing Q3 2017 to Q2 2017, our ENI EPS was up 7.7% excluding performance fees and 2.4% including performance fees. Slide 11 provides insight into the drivers that impacted management fees from Q3 2016 to Q3 2017. The overall trend during this period was a continuation of the positive mix shift towards higher fee assets accelerated by the Landmark transaction which closed in August 2016. As noted previously excluding equity accounted affiliates predominately Heitman, our average fee rate increased by about 3.5 basis points to 38.4 basis points in Q3 2017 from 34.9 in Q3 2016. In the left box you can see average assets for Q3 2016 and Q3 2017 split out by our four key asset classes. The box on the right provides the ENI management fee revenue generated by these average assets and basis points of fees also broken up by asset class. As you recall, our different asset classes have very different fee rates with global non-U.S. equities and alternatives having average management fee rates of 41 basis points and 93 basis points respectively including catch-up fees on alternatives. While U.S. equities and fixed income have average management fee rates of 24 and 21 basis points, respectively. Between Q3 2016 and Q3 2017, the average fee rate on alternatives increased by 20 basis points primarily as a result of the Landmark investment. During this period, the combined share of higher fee global non-U.S. equity and alternative assets at consolidated affiliates went up by 7% to 60% of average assets, while the share of U.S. equity decreased approximately 5% to 34%. All asset classes except fixed income grew in absolute terms during this period. On the right side of the chart, you can see that ENI management fee revenue increase to $221.7 million. Of this amount 76% was made up of higher fee global non-U.S. and alternative assets. The largest increase in revenue not surprisingly was in alternatives as a Landmark transaction combined with subsequent fund raising helped to drive a 129% increase in this category. Landmark AUM has increased approximately 52% since our acquisition last August. Slide 12 provides perspective regarding ENI operating expenses for the three and nine months ended September 30th, 2017, 2016 and breaks out several of our key expense items. Total ENI operating expenses grew by 18% between Q3 2016 and 2017 for a total of $78 million for the quarter. Of this growth, about a third was the result of the Landmark investment. Within our existing business, we invested as planned in key initiatives including non-U.S. at Barrow Hanley and multi-asset class at Acadian. Operating expenses were also impacted by negative FX impact, the mix of base versus variable comp relating to CEO transition, and various advisory fees relating to taxes and the Old Mutual sell down. On an aggregate basis, we achieved increased economies across OMAM as the ratio of operating expenses to management fees fell from 38.4% in Q3 2016 to 35.2% in Q3 2017, driven by scale in both the existing business and by Landmark. Looking at the trend of operating expenses to management fees for the first nine months, we actually expect full year results to come in better than initially expected and should be in the range of 36% to 37%. As you're aware, the first and fourth quarters tend to have higher seasonal expenses in the second and third quarters, driven primarily by payroll taxes. Looking forward to 2018, assuming normal market growth, we'd expect this ratio to decrease by a further 150 to 200 basis points as scale benefits continue. The next key driver of profitability is variable compensation shown in more detail on slide 13. The table at the bottom of the slide divides total variable comp into its two components; cash variable comp and equity amortization. In this exhibit, you can see the benefit of the profit share model which links variable compensation to profitability. Variable comp increased 35% to $60 1.5 million from Q3 2016 to 2017 proportionate to the 37% percent increase in earnings before variable comp. This increase was driven by the acquisition of Landmark and growth in the existing business including tiered variable comp. The reduction of non-cash equity amortization relates to the run-off of certain equity grants over the year and the comp acceleration related to CEO succession, which reduced equity amortization. This is exhibit also calculates the ratio of total variable comp to earnings before variable comp, which we call the variable compensation ratio. This ratio declined to 40.9% compared to 41.6% in the prior year third quarter. As indicated last quarter, for full year 2017, the variable comp ratio maybe just above the 40% to 41% range I had originally indicated, primarily due to the allocation of the second quarter performance fee in the variable comp. Results for the fourth quarter of 2017 and full year 2018 are expected to be towards the top of this range. Affiliate key employee distributions for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2017 and 2016 are shown on slide 14. Distributions represent the share of affiliate profits owned by the affiliate key employees. Between Q3 2016 and 2017 distributions increased 76% from $11.3 million to $19.9 million, while operating earnings were up 38% quarter-over-quarter. The lower increase in operating earnings relative to distributions resulted in an increase in the distribution ratio from 17.6% to 22.4%. The 22.4% current ratio is driven by the acquisition of Landmark which is owned 40% by its current employees as well as the leverage nature of equity distributions at Acadian, which experienced 25% AUM growth over the last 12 months and is now our largest affiliate by AUM. Strong growth at Landmark and Acadian recalls our distribution ratio to come in just above our guidance of approximately 20% to 21 for the full year. For the fourth quarter, this ratio could be in the 22% to 23% range and I'd expect this level to continue into 2018. On slide 15, we present a summary of our balance sheet and capital position. We continue to believe that our balance sheet provides the flexibility and liquidity for acquisitions or buybacks even as we meet our DTA obligations. With approximately $393 million of long-term debt and nothing drawn on our $350 million revolving credit facility, our debt to last four months' EBITDA was 1.5 times as of September 30th. This is below our target 1.7 to 2.5 debt to last four months' EBITDA range and provides flexibility to borrow up to an additional $200 million at current EBITDA levels and still be within the upper end of our target range. In addition our cash of $126 million at 9/30 includes $80 million available at the holding company. Our cash position at September 30th reflects payment of the first $45.5 million installment for the DTA purchase with an additional $97 million in total to be paid through 6/30/18. In July, we purchased the remaining $63.4 million of Seed Capital owned by Old Mutual PLC and funded about half of this through a non-recourse Seed facility, which is boxed on the balance sheet. This facility is collateralized entirely by our Seed Capital with no OMAM boxed up. Therefore, any borrowings and interest under the Seed facility are excluded from our debt covenants under our $350 million revolving credit facility, freeing up borrowing capacity. The Seed has a total capacity of $65 million subject to maximum borrowings equal to 50% of the Seed collateral. On December 29th, we'll pay a quarterly dividend of $0.09 per share to shareholders of record on December 15th. At 21%, the quarterly payout ratio is slightly below our stated dividend policy of 25% ENI payout rate. One last item I'd like to point out is on page 17. The reconciliation between GAAP and ENI net income. As was true in the first half, you'll notice the GAAP and ENI earnings continued to diverge between Q3 2016 and Q3 2017. This difference was expected given the third quarter business performance and Landmark transaction structure and is primarily driven by adjustments number one and number two. Item number 1 equal to $35.8 million adds back non-cash expense related to increases in the value of affiliates' employee owned equity. This number increased due to the growth of affiliate earnings over this period, which drives the value of employee equity as well as the growth of Landmark, which drives the level of contingent purchase price to be paid in Q1 2019. Item 2 for $19.2 million, primarily relates to the acquisition of Landmark. Because both the contingent purchase price and the liquidity provisions of the preexisting non-controlling interests are subject to employee service requirements, under U.S. GAAP these items are amortized through compensation expense rather than the book to goodwill or non-controlling interest. In Q3 2017, we also backed out $4.7 million of pretax gains associated with Seed Capital and co-investments, net of the associated financing cost shown as Item 4. In terms of this reconciliation between GAAP and ENI and the difference between GAAP and ENI, we would expect that GAAP to continue through 2018 as we continue to amortize the Landmark earnout through compensation and therefore, have the adjustment and once we get into 2019, our expectation is you begin to see GAAP ENI move back closer together. Now, I'd like to turn the call back to the operator and we're happy to answer any questions you may have.