Derek Kerr
Analyst · JPMorgan
Thanks, Robert and good morning everyone. Before I review the results, I would also like to thank the American Airlines team for their outstanding work during the quarter. This pandemic has been relentless. And despite the uncertainty, our team continued to show it’s the best in the business. This morning, we reported a fourth quarter GAAP net loss of $931 million or a loss of $1.44 per share. Excluding net special items, we reported a net loss of $921 million or a loss of $1.42 per share. For the full year 2021, we reported a GAAP net loss of $2 billion. And excluding net special items, we reported a net loss of $5.4 billion. Despite the impact of Omicron that we saw in this quarter, the trajectory of our revenue recovery continues to be positive and it even exceeded our initial expectations as we outlined on our last call. Our fourth quarter revenue was down 17% compared with the same period of 2019 versus our original guidance of down 20%. This gradual improvement makes it even clearer to us that despite the uncertain demand environment, the steps we have taken over the past 24 months to bolster our network and improve our revenue generating capabilities are working. On the cost side, we remain focused on keeping our controllable cost down and we actioned $1.3 billion in permanent annual cost initiatives in 2021, providing a new and more efficient baseline for our 2022 budget. During the fourth quarter, we made the decision to invest in the operation with a holiday pay program for our employees as well as reducing our peak holiday capacity. These actions did put pressure on our unit cost performance in the fourth quarter, but they led to a strong operational performance over that period. This included an industry leading month of operating performance in December, when it mattered the most to our customers. On the fleet side, I am pleased to report that our fleet harmonization project is now nearly complete, with our last A321 going into the shop this quarter. This is a full year ahead of our original schedule. We are excited to have this project behind us. In addition to a consistent product and better experience for our customers, the operational benefits of having a simplified and streamlined fleet are already being realized. The changes we have made to our A321s and 737s enable us to fly 2% more total capacity than we could have with the old configuration, thus providing a unit cost tailwind as we continue to build back our network. In addition to better unit cost, these reconfigured aircraft will also generate more revenue, allowing us to recover from the pandemic even faster. With respect to our wide-body aircraft, we continue to have productive conversations with Boeing to determine the timing of our delayed 788 deliveries that were expected to arrive last year. Due to the continued uncertainty of delivery schedule, these aircraft remain out of our near-term schedule to minimize customer disruption. We expect to fly 4 aircraft during our peak summer schedule. We ended the fourth quarter with $15.8 billion of total available liquidity, which is the highest year end liquidity balance in the company’s history. As we have said in the past, the deleveraging of American’s balance sheet remains a top priority and we are committed to significant debt reduction in the years ahead. Even with this volatile demand environment, we remain on track with our target of reducing overall debt levels by $15 billion by the end of 2025. In fact, as of the end of 2021, we have already reduced our overall debt levels by $3.7 billion from our peak levels in the second quarter of 2021. During the quarter, we made $706 million in scheduled debt payments, which resulted in paying off the 2013-1 WTC B tranche. In the first quarter, we expect to make $337 million of scheduled debt payments, which will include unencumbering 12 aircraft. For our pension, our funded status improved by 9.2 points to 77.9%, resulting in a $2 billion reduction in the underfunded liability on a year-over-year basis. Lastly, during the fourth quarter, we completed approximately $960 million of WTC financing, and we now have financing secured for all our 2022 deliveries through the third quarter. Our 2022 budget reflects our priorities to run a reliable airline for our customers and return to profitability. Our plan includes ongoing investments that will help build upon the positive momentum we have seen in our operations while leveraging the cost efficiencies and network enhancements we have talked so much about. We believe these actions will provide a solid baseline for both profitability and free cash flow production when demand has fully recovered. Looking to the first quarter, COVID impacted demand and elevated fuel prices will continue to put pressure on our near-term margins. In this environment, we expect our capacity to be down approximately 8% to 10% versus the first quarter of 2019. Based on current demand assumptions and capacity plans, we expect total revenue to be down approximately 20% to 22% versus the first quarter of 2019. We expect our first quarter CASM, excluding fuel and net special items, to be up between 8% and 10%. While we expect to be unprofitable on a pre-tax basis in January and February, we anticipate a material improvement and a return to profitability in March as demand returns. As for 2022 capacity, much of our plans are subject to the uncertain timing of deliveries of our 788 aircraft. As I mentioned previously, we removed these aircraft from our near-term schedule to protect our customers. This reduction is worth approximately 1 to 2 points of scheduled capacity for 2022. With this adjustment, we expect to add back our capacity throughout the year and to have full year capacity recovered to approximately 95% of 2019 levels. This of course is subject to the future demand environment and we always have the ability to adapt if demand conditions warrant. As we look at our costs, like other airlines, we are seeing inflationary pressures in fuel prices, hiring and training for both new hires and existing crews as we build back our operation, including on the regional side. We are also seeing increased starting wages for certain work groups, including vendors. In addition, we are seeing unit cost pressures from the rolling 788 delays as well as the impact from our ramp and mechanic contract that was ratified in early 2020. Even with these unit cost pressures, our fleet simplification strategy enables higher aircraft utilization and higher average gauge, both of which will help alleviate some of these pressures. As such, we expect our full year CASM, excluding fuel and special items, to be up approximately 5% versus 2019, with the second half of the year much lower than the first half as we fly in more efficient schedule. For the full year, our projected debt maturities are expected to be $2.6 billion. This includes the cash settlement of our $750 million unsecured notes that mature in June. Without any additional prepayment of debt, we project our total debt will be down $5.4 billion at the end of 2022 versus our peak levels in 2021. With respect to capital expenditures, we expect full year 2022 CapEx to be approximately $2.6 billion, which is significantly lower than in previous years and versus others as our fleet replacement needs are complete. Net aircraft CapEx, including pre-delivery deposits, is expected to be $1.8 billion and non-aircraft CapEx is expected to be $800 million. So in conclusion, we are incredibly proud of our team for their continued resilience in a very challenging environment. With the bold actions we have taken and steadfast commitment of our team, we are well-positioned for the future. Now before we open up the line to questions, I would like to acknowledge Dan Cravens for a minute. Today is Dan Cravens’ 62nd call, not quite as many as 107, but 67 is pretty amazing and final earnings call as part of our American Airlines, U.S. Airways and America West team. I’d like to personally thank Dan for his two decades of service, his advocacy for both the airline and our investors and for his friendship. The continuing Dan provided – or the continuity, excuse me, Dan provided over 20 years in his role across multiple airlines, multiple crisis and a global academic is unmatched. We wish him the best of luck in his next adventure. We will be introducing Scott Long, who will be stepping into Dan’s role from our financial planning organization later this month. So with that, I’d like to open up the line for analyst questions.