Derek Kerr
Analyst · Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI
Thanks, Robert, and good morning, everyone. Before I begin my remarks, I too want to take the opportunity to thank our team. Their leadership and hard work truly embodies what American Airlines team members are known for. This morning, we reported a first quarter GAAP net loss of $1.3 billion or $1.97 per share. Excluding net special credits, we reported a net loss of $2.7 billion or $4.32 per share. Robert talked about many of the commercial activities we're working on and the trends we're seeing in the demand environment, so I'll focus my remarks on the cost side of our P&L and our balance sheet as we look to the future. Throughout the entire pandemic, we have remained focused on keeping our capacity aligned with demand while preserving the maximum amount of flexibility to respond as demand returns. We took aggressive actions to reduce our cost structure, and we have reduced our first quarter total operating expense, excluding net special items, by 26% versus 2020 on a 39% reduction in total capacity. Nonfuel operating expenses, excluding net special credits, were up 6% sequentially from the fourth quarter as we gradually added back capacity. We ended the first quarter with $17.3 billion in total available liquidity, including approximately $3.1 billion of PSP2 funds we received from the Treasury Department during the quarter. We were recently notified that this amount will be increased by approximately $463 million to be received in the second quarter. In addition, we expect to receive $3.3 billion of PSP3 funds by the end of the second quarter. We saw positive trends in our daily cash burn rate throughout the quarter. Our average daily cash burn was approximately $27 million per day, which came in better than our guidance of $30 million per day. This happened despite the drop-off in demand we saw in January and February and a significant increase in fuel prices at the beginning of the quarter. As a reminder, our definition of cash burn includes approximately $9 million per day of regular debt principal and cash severance payments. For the month of March, our estimated average daily cash burn rate was approximately $4 million per day. And excluding approximately $8 million per day of regular debt principal and cash severance payments made in March. As Doug noted, the company's cash burn rate turned positive for the month. During the quarter, our Treasury team did a phenomenal job of continuing to strengthen our liquidity through a series of capital market transactions. Notably, we completed our $10 billion financing transaction that was backed by the AAdvantage program at a blended rate of 5.6%, less than half of what we would have been able to do last summer, and use those proceeds to repay in full the $550 million secured loan we had with the Treasury Department. We also had $530 million of aircraft amortization payments, including the maturity of our 2011-1WTC, which, together with mortgage maturities, resulted in 35 mainline aircraft and 9 regional aircraft becoming unencumbered. During the quarter, we also repaid in full our $2.8 billion of revolving credit facilities. This was a liquidity-neutral transaction that reduced the company's outstanding debt by $2.8 billion. Importantly, we still retain the flexibility to either draw upon these revolving commitments again as needed or leave them undrawn until October 2024. During the quarter, we took delivery of 7 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, and we expect to take 1 more delivery later this year. As a reminder, these aircraft were built while the MAX was grounded and were efficiently financed through leasing transactions. In addition, we recently exercised our remaining deferral rights on 18 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft that were previously scheduled to be delivered in 2021 and 2022. These deliveries are now expected to occur in 2023 and 2024. Lastly, we reached an agreement with Boeing related to our remaining 787-8 deliveries. Under the revised terms of the agreement, we have elected to defer and convert 5 787-8 aircraft to 787-9 aircraft. These deliveries are now expected to occur in 2023. The remaining 14 deliveries of 787-8 aircraft have been rescheduled to occur by the end of the first quarter of 2022, and all of these aircraft will retain their existing financings. In January, the company made $241 million in contributions to its pension plans and marks the new COVID-19 relief bill, included, among other things, funding relief for single employer pension plans. These new funding rules reduced the company's remaining required cash contribution for 2021 to 0, while lowering our projected required contributions over the next 5 years by over $2 billion. Under these new provisions for funding purposes, the combined plans are expected to be funded in excess of 90% for plan year 2021. As Doug and Robert mentioned, we are starting to see signs of what appears to be a strong economic recovery. This fantastic news makes our $1.3 billion of efficiency measures even more important as we repair our business for the return to a more normal environment. On the fleet side, we have talked a lot about our fleet simplification efforts and the elimination of smaller sub-fleets, which resulted in the removal of more than 150 older and inefficient aircraft. Many of these aircraft - retired aircraft have already been sold. And by May, we will have completed disposal of all of our 730 - 767 aircraft and Embraer 190 aircraft, generating more than $300 million in proceeds. Our fleet changes are expected to drive significant operational and cost savings in 2021 and beyond. With only 4 mainline aircraft types remaining, we will see improved aircraft utilization and operational efficiencies in the back half of 2021 through the increase in gauge and reduction in inactive aircraft, including spares and maintenance allocations. Additionally, our fleet harmonization project is picking up steam, and we expect to have our entire 737 fleet completed in the second quarter of this year. These aircraft have 172 seats and come with larger overhead bins and in-seat power. We expect to have the A321 fleet completed by the end of this year. Aside from a better customer experience, these projects will provide significant opportunities to improve revenue production and lower our unit cost now and well into the future. So when demand returns to more normalized levels, we'll be able to fly - efficiently fly 2019 levels of capacity with approximately 10% fewer aircraft. In terms of our balance sheet following our transactions in the first quarter, 32% of our outstanding debt is prepayable without penalty. After all the COVID-related financings we have completed to date, our average cost of debt is approximately 4.5%. As we have said in the past, we will naturally reduce our debt from where we are today by $8 billion to $10 billion over the next 5 years through regularly scheduled debt amortization. We know going forward that since we are now starting at a higher debt level on account of pandemic-related debt, we will need to de-lever even more. In the near term, we plan to maintain higher liquidity levels until we are generating sustained positive cash flow. Once this occurs, when combined with our efficiency measures and a lower CapEx profile, we plan to use any excess cash flow to more strategically de-lever our balance sheet by proactively retiring prepayable debt and concurrently increasing our unencumbered assets. As part of our plan, we also anticipate resetting our target minimum liquidity level. Overall, we expect second quarter total capacity to be down approximately 20% to 25% versus second quarter of 2019. With these capacity and demand assumptions, we expect to see a significant increase in our revenue versus the first quarter with our total revenue to be down approximately 40% versus the second quarter of 2019. These inputs lead to an estimated second quarter pretax margin, excluding net special items of between negative 27% and 30%. We presently expect to end the second quarter with approximately $19.5 billion in total available liquidity, which includes the additional PSP2 and PSP3 funds I mentioned earlier. That would be the highest liquidity position in company history and our fifth consecutive quarter of increased liquidity despite the demand-driven operating losses we have incurred over that period. Given these projected liquidity levels and the positive cash and demand trends, we are no longer looking to raise liquidity at American for the first time since the pandemic struck. For the full year 2021, our debt principal payments will be $2.8 billion, excluding the prepayment of our revolving credit facilities. In the second quarter, we expect to pay down $595 million of aircraft and engine debt in addition to the $250 million PDP facility we paid off earlier this month. Our full year CapEx is still expected to remain minimal. Non-aircraft CapEx will be $900 million. And due to our negotiated settlements with Boeing attractive aircraft financing and our already modernized fleet, our net aircraft CapEx, including PDPs, will be an inflow of $1 billion. While we feel great about how much we have accomplished, we recognize that we still have a long way to go to get our business back to normal. Our team has done an amazing job of bolstering our liquidity, conserving cash and driving efficiencies throughout the organization, and we are very well positioned for the future. And with that, I'll open up the line for analyst questions.