J. Scott Kirby
Analyst · here
Thanks, Derek. Before discussing the revenue environment, I'd also like to thank all the employees of US Airways for all the hard work and the great airline that we're running today. As has been the case for several years now, our record operational results continued throughout the third quarter. Turning to the revenue environment, I'll start with a review of the third quarter and then give you a little bit of commentary on the outlook going forward. As we discussed in our last earnings call, demand in the third quarter moderated somewhat from the very strong pace we saw in the second quarter. Though even with this moderation, we still set a new record third quarter RASM. Demand was consistent throughout the quarter, with September negatively impacted on a year-over-year basis by the expiration of the ticket tax and a shift in timing of the Jewish holidays. In fact, adjusting for these effects, demand in September was arguably the strongest month of the quarter. Domestic and Latham RASM were each up about 1%, and transatlantic was down 2%. A declining euro negatively impacted transatlantic RASM by over 3 points, so adjusted for the currency effects, the transatlantic performance was essentially in line with the domestic market. During the quarter, leisure demand remained consistent. And as we saw at the end of the second quarter, business demand was strong but not as strong as it was during the first 5 months of the year. Turning to the outlook going forward, we continue to see headline-driven demand with decent headlines leading to very good bookings and bad headlines causing a near-term moderation in bookings. In October thus far, bookings have been strong during the first 3 weeks. The pricing environment at the moment is weaker than you might expect with such strong bookings and record high load factors that with book [ph] yields essentially flat year-over-year. And as a number of analysts have pointed out, however, pricing generally improves during strong booking, load factor periods, but sometimes does so with a lag. Given these recent booking trends, we're cautiously optimistic on demand going forward. Corporate and business travel still feels like they're waiting on some certainty on the election and resolution of the fiscal cliff, but we see a point to enjoy an accelerating demand environment. With that, we currently project October RASM to be up 3%. The comps for November are a little bit more difficult than October, with the Jewish holiday timing helping October and mid-week Halloween and the elections hurting November, but we still expect November RASM to be up 1% to 3%. December looks like it will be back up in the 2% to 4% range. So in conclusion, we continue to run a great airline and the demand environment remains strong, and we're cautiously optimistic about the outlook going forward.